CLIMATECHANGE– GEOPHYSICAL FOUNDATIONSAND ECOLOGICALEFFECTS  EditedbyJuanBlancoand HoushangKheradmand              Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects Edited by Juan Blanco and Houshang Kheradmand Published by InTech Janeza Trdine 9, 51000 Rijeka, Croatia Copyright © 2011 InTech All chapters are Open Access articles distributed under the Creative Commons Non Commercial Share Alike Attribution 3.0 license, which permits to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt the work in any medium, so long as the original work is properly cited. After this work has been published by InTech, authors have the right to republish it, in whole or part, in any publication of which they are the author, and to make other personal use of the work. Any republication, referencing or personal use of the work must explicitly identify the original source. Statements and opinions expressed in the chapters are these of the individual contributors and not necessarily those of the editors or publisher. No responsibility is accepted for the accuracy of information contained in the published articles. The publisher assumes no responsibility for any damage or injury to persons or property arising out of the use of any materials, instructions, methods or ideas contained in the book. Publishing Process Manager Iva Lipovic Technical Editor Teodora Smiljanic Cover Designer Jan Hyrat Image Copyright Sergey Vasilyev, 2010. Used under license from Shutterstock.com First published August, 2011 Printed in Croatia A free online edition of this book is available at www.intechopen.com Additional hard copies can be obtained from orders@intechweb.org Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects, Edited by Juan Blanco and Houshang Kheradmand p. cm. ISBN 978-953-307-419-1 free online editions of InTech Books and Journals can be found at www.intechopen.com   Contents  Preface IX Part 1 Climate Variability 1 Chapter 1 Chemistry-Climate Connections – Interaction of Physical, Dynamical, and Chemical Processes in Earth Atmosphere 3 Martin Dameris and Diego Loyola Chapter 2 Time Correlation Laws Inferred from Climatic Records: Long-Range Persistence and Alternative Paradigms 25 Maria Lanfredi, Tiziana Simoniello, Vincenzo Cuomo and Maria Macchiato Chapter 3 The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: Feedbacks Between Climate Change and Biogeochemical Cycles 43 Arne Max Erich Winguth Chapter 4 Temporal Variability of Rain-Induced Floods in Southern Quebec 65 Assani Ali Arkamose, Landry Raphaëlle, Quessy Jean-François and Clément Francis Chapter 5 Detecting of a Global and Caribbean Climate Change 81 Nazario D. Ramirez-Beltran, Joan Manuel Castro and Oswaldo Julca Chapter 6 Climate Changes of the Recent Past in the South American Continent: Inferences Based on Analysis of Borehole Temperature Profiles 113 Valiya M. Hamza and Fábio P. Vieira Chapter 7 Climate Change Impacts on Atmospheric Circulation and Daily Precipitation in the Argentine Pampas Region 137 Olga C. Penalba and María Laura Bettolli VI Contents Chapter 8 Holocene Vegetation Responses to East Asian Monsoonal Changes in South Korea 157 Sangheon Yi Chapter 9 Climate Signals from 10 Be Records of Marine Sediments Surrounded with Nearby a Continent 179 Kyeong Ja Kim and Seung-Il Nam Chapter 10 Drought Analysis Based on SPI and SAD Curve for the Korean Peninsula Considering Climate Change 195 Minsoo Kyoung, Jaewon Kwak, Duckgil Kim, Hungsoo Kim and Vijay P. Singh Part 2 Changes in Fauna and Flora 215 Chapter 11 Review of Long Term Macro-Fauna Movement by Multi-Decadal Warming Trends in the Northeastern Pacific 217 Christian Salvadeo, Daniel Lluch-Belda, Salvador Lluch-Cota and Milena Mercuri Chapter 12 Global Heating Threatens the `I`iwi (Vestiaria coccinea), Currently a Common Bird of Upper Elevation Forests in Hawaii 231 Anthony Povilitis Chapter 13 Possible Effects of Future Climate Changes on the Maximum Number of Generations of Anopheles in Monsoon Asia 247 Shunji Ohta and Takumi Kaga Chapter 14 Climate Change and Shifts in the Distribution of Moth Species in Finland, with a Focus on the Province of Kainuu 273 Juhani H. Itämies, Reima Leinonen and V. Benno Meyer-Rochow Chapter 15 Effects and Consequences of Global Climate Change in the Carpathian Basin 297 János Rakonczai Chapter 16 Climate Change Impact on Quiver Trees in Arid Namibia and South Africa 323 Danni Guo, Renkuan Guo, Yanhong Cui, Guy F. Midgley, Res Altwegg and Christien Thiart Chapter 17 Changes in the Composition of a Theoretical Freshwater Ecosystem Under Disturbances 343 Ágota Drégelyi-Kiss and Levente Hufnagel Contents VII Chapter 18 The Use and Misuse of Climatic Gradients for Evaluating Climate Impact on Dryland Ecosystems - an Example for the Solution of Conceptual Problems 361 Marcelo Sternberg, Claus Holzapfel, Katja Tielbörger, Pariente Sarah, Jaime Kigel, Hanoch Lavee, Aliza Fleischer, Florian Jeltsch and Martin Köchy Part 3 Changes in Alpine and Boreal Landscapes 375 Chapter 19 Climate-Driven Change of the Stand Age Structure in the Polar Ural Mountains 377 Valeriy Mazepa, Stepan Shiyatov and Nadezhda Devi Chapter 20 Mountains Under Climate and Global Change Conditions – Research Results in the Alps 403 Oliver Bender, Axel Borsdorf, Andrea Fischer and Johann Stötter Chapter 21 Are Debris Floods and Debris Avalanches Responding Univocally to Recent Climatic Change – A Case Study in the French Alps 423 V. Jomelli, I. Pavlova, M. Utasse, M. Chenet, D. Grancher, D. Brunstein and F. Leone Chapter 22 Glaciers Shrinking in Nepal Himalaya 445 Samjwal R. Bajracharya, Sudan B. Maharjan and Finu Shrestha Chapter 23 Subglacial and Proglacial Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change 459 Jacob C. Yde, Teresa G. Bárcena and Kai W. Finster Chapter 24 Why Do We Expect Glacier Melting to Increase Under Global Warming? 479 Roger J. Braithwaite Chapter 25 Estimation of the Sea Level Rise by 2100 Resulting from Changes in the Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet 503 Xavier Fettweis, Alexandre Belleflamme, Michel Erpicum, Bruno Franco and Samuel Nicolay  Preface  Climate is a fundamental part of the wo rld as we know it. The landscape and everything on it are determined by climate acting over long periods of time (Pittock 2005).Therefore,any changeonclimatewillhave effectssooneror laterontheworld around us. These changes have happened before in the past, and they will lik ely happen again in thefuture. Climate variability can be both natural or anthropogenic (Simard and Austin 2010). In either case,the change in the current climate will have impactsonthebiogeophysicalsystemoftheEarth.Asallhumanactivitiesarebuilton thissy stem,oursocietywillbeimpactedaswell.Asaconsequence,climatechangeis increasingly becoming one of the most important issues, generating discussions in economy, science, politics, etc. There is no discrepancy among scientists that climate change is real and it has the potential to change our environment (Oreskes and Conway2010), butuncertaintyexists aboutthemag nitude andspeed at whichit will unfold(Moss etal. 2010).Themostdiscussedeffect of globalwarming isthe increase oftemperatures,althoughthisincreasewillnotbehomogeneousthroughtheseasons, with the winters expected to warm up significantly more than the s ummers. In addition, changes in precipitation are also expected, that could lead to increase or decrease ofrainfall, snowfall andother water‐related events. Finally, achange in the frequency and intensity of storm events could be possible, although this is probably themost uncertainofthe effectsofgl obalwarming. Theseuncertaintieshighlight the needformoreresearchonhowglobal events haveeffectsatregionalandlocalscales, buttheyalsoindicatedtheneedforthesocietyatlargetoassumearisk‐freeapproach to avoid the worse effects of climate change in our socio‐e conomical and ecological systems(IPCC2007). Humans have been dealing with risk‐related activities for a long time. For example, whenbuyingacarorhomeinsurance,thediscussionisnotaboutwhethertheadverse effects will happen or not, but on how to reduce its effects and recover and if they happen.Inma nycountries,havingcarinsuranceiscompulsorytodriveacar,evenif onlyasmallpercentageofdriverssuffercaraccidentscomparedtothetotalnumberof cars.Inaddition,themostriskymanoeuvres(i.e.excessivespeed,notstoppingonred light, etc.) are banned to reduce the risks of acci dents. Similarly, developing policies and practices that reduce and minimize the risks and effects of climate change are X Preface needed, even if the worse situations will never happen. If not, we will be in the equivalent of driving without insurance and without respecting the signals. All policiesandpracticesforeconomic,industrialandnaturalresourcemanagementneed tobefoundedonsoundscientificfoundations.Thisvolumeoffersaninterdisciplinary viewof thebi ophysicalissuesrelated toclimate change,and providesglimpse ofthe state‐of‐the‐art research carried out around the world to inform scientists, policymakersandotherstakeholders. Anyscientific d iscipli nelearnsfromexperience,andthescienceofclimatechangeis not different. Climate change is defi ned as a ph enomenon by which the long‐term averages of weather events (i.e. temperature, precipitation, wind speed, etc.) that definetheclimateofa  regionarenotconstantbutchangeovertime.Climateisalso the result of very complex interactions between physical, chemical and biological variables. As a result, at ge ologic a l sc ales of ti me,  climate is cons tantly goin g throughperi od sofrelativelystableconditionsfollowed byperiodsofchange.There have been a series of past periods of climatic change, registered in historical  or paleoecological  records thatcan bestudiedfrom differentgeophysical variables. In thefirstsectionof thisbook,aser iesofstate‐of‐the‐art researchprojectsexplorethe biophysical causes for climatechange and the  techniquescurrently being used and developed forits detectionin several regions of the world. Inthis section, Dameris and Loyola desc ri be the interactions between physical, dynamical, and chemical processes in Earth atmosphere. Manf redi et al. provide a new statistical methodolog y to study changes in historical climatic data. Winguth discusses the feedbacksbetweencli matechange andbiogeochemicalcycles duringthePaleocene‐ Eocene Thermal Maximum. Historical and current changes in climatic and geophysical variables can be found around the glob e.  In North America, Assani et al. stu dy the temporal variability of rain‐induced floods  in southern Queb ec (Canada), whereas Ramírez‐Beltrán et al. showcase a study to de tec t the change in climatic c onditio ns at global scale and in the Caribbean basin. In South America, Hamzaet al.studied thechangesinsoiltempe rat ure todetectv ariabilityin climate for thelast decades,while Penalbaand Bettollianalyzethe  changesin atmospheric circulation and daily precipitation caused by cli mate change  in the Argentinean Pampas. In Asia, Yi studies the pollen records in Korea to establish the changes in climate during the Holocene , whereas Kim and Nam analyzing the records of bery lliumdeposits in the marine sediment, and  Kyounget al. discuss theeffects of climatechangeindroughtsintheKoreanpeninsula.  The knowledge of past changes in the environment will be of great value to try to understand what will happen unde r future climatic cond iti ons  different from the current ones. However, the effects of climate change on ecos ys te ms around the world are not something of the future. They are happening now all around the globe. Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of pla n ts  and animals are occurri ng in all  aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Predator‐prey and pl ant‐ [...]... similes  of  climate change and Drégelyi‐ Kiss  and Hufnagel  provide  a  theoretical  study  on  climate induced  changes  in  freshwater ecosystems.  Being the ecosystems most potentially affected by climate change,  the arctic and alpine  regions  are  already  experiencing  some  of  the  most  noticeable  and fastest  changes.  Range‐restricted  species,  particularly  polar  and mountaintop ... this  topic.  However, climate change is not just a theoretical issue only important for scientists or  environmentalists. It also has direct implications in our socio‐economical systems. The  other two books of this series  Climate change – Socioeconomic effects” and Climate Change – Research  and Technology  for  Adaptation  and Mitigation”  explore  these  topics in detail, and we encourage the reader to consult them as well. ... Annual Reviews of Ecology and Evolutionary systematic, Vol 37, p637‐669.  Pittock,  A.B.  (2005).  Climate change.   Turning  up  the  heat.  Earthscan,  London.  ISBN  0643069343.  Simard, S.W., Austin, M.E. (2010). Climate change and variability. InTech, Rijeka. ISBN  978‐953‐307‐144‐2.    Part 1 Climate Variability 1 Chemistry -Climate Connections – Interaction of Physical, Dynamical, and Chemical Processes... ozone hole, the extreme thinning of the ozone layer in the south-polar 4 Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects stratosphere was explained as a combination of special meteorological conditions and changed chemical composition induced by industrially manufactured (anthropogenic) chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons 1.1 Ozone chemistry In the atmosphere, ozone (O3) is produced... the influence of clouds and other atmospheric effects (Loyola et al., 2011) Satellite total ozone measurements are systematically compared with ground-based measurements and the differences are typically lower than 1% Nevertheless satellite ozone data from different instruments may show spatial and temporal differences due to sensor 8 Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects Absorption... Antarctic stratosphere 20 Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects Fig 11 As Figure 10, but now for the polar regions (top: Northern Hemisphere for months February, March, and April; bottom: Southern Hemisphere for months September, October, and November) Deviations are given with regard to the mean value of the period 1995-2009 (in %) for the region between 60° and 90° Notice the different... feedbacks Usually, AGCM calculations employ prescribed concentrations of radiatively active gases, e.g CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, and O3 Changes of water vapour (H2O) concentrations due to the hydrological cycle are directly simulated by an AGCM The 10 Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998... late March from 1979 until 2011 (no data available for 1995, see text) 12 Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects temporal development of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice coverage are prescribed in these models The chosen boundary conditions for concentrations of radiatively active gases and SSTs (incl sea ice) represent a specific period of time, e.g some years... some 14 Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects insight into current capabilities of numerical modelling of atmospheric processes and how model results are evaluated on the basement of observations The evaluation of results derived from numerical modelling with observations gives indications about the quality of the applied model which partly reflects our current understanding... dynamics and chemistry which is different in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the tropics (see Sections 1.1 and 1.2) Fig 8 Seasonal mean values of total ozone (June 1995 to May 2008) from GOME/SCIAMACHY/GOME-2 satellite instruments (top), the E39CA simulation (middle), and the difference between satellite measurements and model results (bottom) (Figure 6 in Loyola et al., 2009) 16 Climate Change – . CLIMATE CHANGE – GEOPHYSICAL FOUNDATIONS AND ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS  EditedbyJuanBlanco and  HoushangKheradmand              Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and. Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects, Edited by Juan Blanco and Houshang Kheradmand p. cm. ISBN 978-953-307- 419 -1 free online editions of InTech Books and. thistopic. However, climate change isnotjustatheoreticalissueonlyimportantforscientistsor environmentalists.Italsohasdirectimplicationsinoursocio‐economicalsystems.The othertwobooksofthisseries Climate change – Socioeconomic effects and Climate Change – Res earch and Technology for Adaptation and Mitigation” explore these topicsindetail, and weencouragethereadertoconsultthemaswell. The