in the face of an economic downturn and spiraling nancial markets, marketers examine their marketing budgets for the upcoming year economic outlook for 2009 and its impact on marketing budgets mayraruiz.com email marketing & web design public relations & outreach branding & collateral presentations training speaking writing promotion marketingmist.com Ruiz-McPherson Communications, LLC city smarts in country parts This e-book highlights the marketing budget trends for 2009 as shared by leading marketing blogs and web sites. No matter what you may do with your marketing budget for the new year, it’s always a good idea to take a macro-view of the marketing climate at large to learn what other industries and marketing executives plan for their 2009 marketing expenditures. NOVEMBER / DECEMBER 2008 mayraRuiz.com or the last couple of months, in my Letters from the Editor column, I’ve in one way or another touched on a reality facing many marketing managers and executives: marketing budgets for 2009 will be impacted in some way, shape or form. How these budgets are impacted is the primary focus of this e-book dedicated to sharing the collective insight and trends from various leading marketing blogs, online publications and thought leaders in the marketing space. f Before diving into this subject, however, it should be noted that there is a difference in perception when it comes to marketing budgets. Some managers see marketing as an expense; others passionately argue that any marketing “expense” is really an investment in positioning and promoting your business. So states John Williams, a Senior Finance Executive with international and public company experience and a partner at B2B CFO in Norfolk, Virginia: “Cutting back advertising only means that you believe the funds you expend there are not effective. If that is the case, why were you wasting that money in good times?” Marketing Strategist, publicity assistant & social media enthusiast Mayra Ruiz-McPherson Economic Outlook for 2009 and its Impact on Marketing Budgets I www.mayraruiz.com Page 1 of 9 Economic gloom is so pervasive these days… Ahhh if only these were good times. As we are all too clearly aware, today’s times lean more heavily on the bad side as of late. Turn on any television or radio and visit just about any news Web site and you won’t be able to escape today’s grim economic realities. At the time of this writing, one quick glance at MSNBC.com’s main “Stocks & Economy” section’s headlines underscores the gravity of our nation’s sour economic climate: • Oil slips below $57 on global pessimism • Economy strikes America’s richest university • U.S. unveils $40 billion in aid to AIG • Starbucks profit plummets by 97 percent • NYT: Emanuel urges aid for auto industry • Fannie Mae posts $29 billion quarterly loss I could go on, but somehow, I think you get the picture. And so do your bosses and senior managers. And whether you agree with it or not, marketing budgets are one of several targets to be affected in some way, shape or form given the economic outlook for 2009. The direction, implications and consequences of such an impact have been the topic of hot discussion on many marketing blogs, web sites and industry publications recently and with good reason: it’s a highly relevant subject many marketers have to face or work through as their employers navigate today’s choppy economic waters. Forget 2009 resolutions. How about 2009 economic predictions? Cory Treffiletti of MediaPost recently predicted the coming year will bring about some stability, not growth—and the stability, he states, will allow many businesses the time to examine where they are, create efficiencies and increase productivity. Cory’s specific 2009 outlook is as follows: Q1 revenue is going to be bad, but Q2 and Q3 will be stronger—with not more than 9% to 10% growth. Cory further believes that consumers will be “tight-fisted for the holidays and will build stricter budgets going into next year.” He adds, “Come spring and summer, assuming that oil prices have stayed stable and housing prices have not dropped more, then consumers may live a little once again. Q2 and Q3 will be better than they look, probably coming in line with the 9% to 10% growth that many online analysts are predicting, certainly not much more than that. Q4 of 2009 is the real question in my eyes, as that is just too far away to predict accurately.” Whether Cory’s predictions come true or not, the effort to somehow attempt to foresee what 2009 has in store is insightful for marketers as it helps steer our marketing direction, which usually needs to be several months out, at minimum, no matter what the industry. Marketing Strategist, publicity assistant & social media enthusiast Mayra Ruiz-McPherson Economic Outlook for 2009 and its Impact on Marketing Budgets I www.mayraruiz.com Page 2 of 9 Other studies, however, are not as optimistic about 2009. An October 2008 survey by Marketing Profs of more than 600 marketing professionals and managers, as Roy Young points out, finds the following: • The majority (52%) of marketers are already making changes to plans and budgets as a result of the economic crisis with 65% of marketers expecting negative effects on marketing overall. • Whether the market continues to fluctuate or falls into a recession, 75% of marketers surveyed expect the impact of the crisis will extend through 2009 and into 2010. • Online marketing is turning into a venue where marketers can stretch their dollar while accurately targeting leads and customers. 60% of all marketers surveyed stressed that they would be increasing their online budgets while 85% would be reducing their use of traditional marketing vehicles. Objective data and analysis of this type can be helpful to any company or business trying to better align its promotional efforts with what other businesses are doing in response to today’s down markets. Now let’s examine some of the recent marketing budget trends on the horizon which have surfaced recently in response to the economic chaos challenging the very core of business all around the world. Doing so will help us to better understand the various different perspectives, influences and drivers challenging marketers even as you read this sentence. Marketing Strategist, publicity assistant & social media enthusiast Mayra Ruiz-McPherson Economic Outlook for 2009 and its Impact on Marketing Budgets I www.mayraruiz.com Page 3 of 9 he question above was recently asked on the popular professional social network LinkedIn. Seems like everyone is asking similar marketing budget questions. For marketers everywhere, this is a highly relevant question yet only two people responded to Reggie’s inquiry. Of the two individuals who responded, the responses were fairly consistent with most of the 2009 marketing budget trend information available on the Internet: t • Terry Dolan, Manager of Corporate Business Development at AG Salesworks, shares that his company’s current and potential clients are under a microscope to demonstrate ROI in Q1 '09 like never before. “I think you'll see a lot less traditional spending (mailers, shows, branding efforts ) versus highly trackable and highly targeted lead generation programs (cold calling campaigns, email).” • Sarah Clachar, owner at Sarah Clachar Health Copywriting, agrees with Terry and believes there will be more focus on direct response and fine tuning according to test results. Like Terry, Sarah sees more emphasis on developing web-based marketing due to cost-effectiveness. "It's a good place to pre-test direct mail." Marketing Strategist, publicity assistant & social media enthusiast Mayra Ruiz-McPherson Economic Outlook for 2009 and its Impact on Marketing Budgets I www.mayraruiz.com Page 4 of 9 Terry and Sarah, like many others in the marketing space, are aware of the marketing budget shifts and trends taking place in today’s business climates due to the economic recession. As we try to explore some of these trends in more detail, please be aware that the marketing budget trends being shared here are (a) hardly all inclusive of every industry and (b) not unique to one specific industry or line of business. As in fashion, there isn’t one trend that is “right” or represents the “best” marketing direction. Ultimately, what an organization does with its marketing budget for any year, in good or bad economic times, is highly dependent on its own programs, goals and objectives, customers and market segment. Still, it’s good to know what marketing budget trends are in play to help guide your 2009 marketing decision-making in the right direction. Not everyone plans to cut marketing budgets While some organizations, as the MarketingProfs findings indicate, plan on shaving back their marketing expenditures as a traditional response to a downturn in the economy, not all industries or businesses agree with the scaling back response. In fact, some of the biggest names in branding, (including Procter and Gamble, who survived the crash of the 1930s) are suggesting marketers at all levels do just the opposite and are even going as far as encouraging companies to stay on track, but use dollars carefully. As Diane Wieland of Duo Consulting’s blog shared in an October 28, 2008 post entitled, “Don’t cut that marketing budget yet,” several head marketers for big brand companies were sharing their “market onward, market stronger” positions at the recent annual Association of National Advertisers conference. Stuart Elliott at the New York Times shared some of the more memorable quotes by head marketers for companies like Hewlett-Packard, Coca-Cola, and General Mills. Hewlett-Packards senior vice president and chief marketing officer Michael Mendenhall had one of such quotes: “It’s incredibly important to be risk-takers in the economic climate we’re in. People have a tendency to pull back. In economic times like these, you don’t hunker down and go in the bunker.” Wieland also highlights the marketing tenacity of companies such as Coca-Cola, reported to have the strongest brand recognition in the world, who refuse to retreat and cut back. Joseph V. Tripodi, chief marketing and commercial officer for Coca-Cola was quoted as saying: “Don’t go to the ledge. Don’t let the urgent overwhelm the important. It’s very easy now to panic, and we cannot panic.” He added, “Invest in your brands now, especially in these dry times. The easiest thing is to shut down, and that’s the worst thing.” Brand recognition is one thing, but getting consumers to buy is another. General Mills is fending off the economic downturn with a new “Home is calling” campaign. Marketing Strategist, publicity assistant & social media enthusiast Mayra Ruiz-McPherson Economic Outlook for 2009 and its Impact on Marketing Budgets I www.mayraruiz.com Page 5 of 9 “Right now, given where America is, people need to go back to the comfort of home,” said Mark Addicks, senior vice president and chief marketing officer at General Mills. So a new campaign for the company’s Pillsbury brand will carry the theme “Home is calling.” Other industry sectors to avoid marketing cutbacks In a just-released survey from eMetrics Marketing Optimization Summit, more than 64% of respondents say the current economy probably won’t affect their overall marketing budgets, but most report plans to Increase or maintain their budgets for: • Email (83.6%) • Online Advertising (77.2%) • Keyword Search Campaigns (75.5%) • Social Media (61.8%) • …and Video Advertising (38.2%) Many other industries and service providers from diverse professional tracks also believe marketing cutbacks are counterproductive in down markets. Curtis Linder from Linder Legal Staffing, for example, left a comment on the Duo Consulting blog citing an October 28, 2008 article published in the Chicago Daily Law Bulletin. The article refers to a special advisory published by law consulting firm Hildebrandt in which it reports that “among actions law firm management should take immediately, Hildebrandt advises (among other things): continue law firm marketing.” And Glen Miracle of NVS Kitchen & Bath in Manassas, Virginia says one expense that will change for sure will be his firm’s marketing budget. “We will be forced to spend more of our resources attracting new clients. The more potential clients you can sit in front of to tell your story to, the more opportunities to sell them on your company.” Most marketing departments will have to market with less Despite the marketing budget cut defiance some industries and organizations courageously display as their response to the recessionary economy, it does appear a large preponderance of marketing departments will have to market with less. A December 2, 2008 survey by MarketingSherpa finds that some of the specific areas where marketing budget cuts will be most felt are in the following: • Less trade show attendance which result in less travel and less sponsorships • Renegotiating third-party contracts; reevaluating vendor contracts due to price pressures • Virtual training (e.g. www.lynda.com ) will replace expensive, extended off-site training • Reduced marketing staff for reduced overhead Marketing Strategist, publicity assistant & social media enthusiast Mayra Ruiz-McPherson Economic Outlook for 2009 and its Impact on Marketing Budgets I www.mayraruiz.com Page 6 of 9 More trend details A recent e-Marketer study dated December 16, 2008 highlights many other notable marketing expenditure trends and predictions for 2009. Not surprisingly, the first on the list is the increase of online advertising spending for the coming year. Some of e-Marketer’s Senior Analyst David Hallerman’s findings include: • Video ad spending will run counter to overall economic developments, rising by 45% in 2009 to reach $850 million. Two key factors support this trend: o First, the sharp escalation of professional video content on the Web—mainly from TV networks—is creating a viable base for brand marketers. o Second, even though most advertisers are increasingly cautious with their budgets, they still need to reach online audiences and woo their shrinking wallets with messages that reach their hearts and minds—hence, more video. • Search marketing spending will grow by 14.9% in 2009, to $12.3 billion. Search marketing is not recession-proof, but it is recession-resistant. Two basic assumptions support this eMarketer projection: o Search is highly measurable, so it will maintain its place in many budgets and increase in some others, as advertisers look for secure and effective methods to combat fear in an economic meltdown. o Also, consumers—who monetize search ads by deciding whether or not to click— will take money off the table by shopping less, and put money back on by searching for deals. Although search advertising will grow less in 2009 than in any previous year, its inherent strength will mean greater spending gains than for any other major form of advertising, whether online or offline. To cut or not to cut, that is the question Ultimately, most marketing budgets for 2009 will either be cut back or have their dollars shifted more than likely towards digital marketing. The December 16, 2008 marketing study cited above indicates that traditional marketing will continue “to hurt” with newspaper advertising declining in the new year more than any other medium. eMarketer also estimates that US TV ad spending will decline 4.2% to $66.9 billion in 2009. This drop in spending reflects not only expectations of a continued poor economy but a seismic shift in the way TV ads are bought and sold. However your shift, reduce or transform your marketing budgets for 2009, one fact is beyond clear: marketers will need to squeeze more ROI from marketing expenditures than ever before. Marketing Strategist, publicity assistant & social media enthusiast Mayra Ruiz-McPherson Economic Outlook for 2009 and its Impact on Marketing Budgets I www.mayraruiz.com Page 7 of 9 f there can be any silver lining to marketing budget reductions, it would be that generally we tend to be more creative when resources are limited. When marketing budgets are plush, we marketers are creatively creative; meaning our creativity is more inspired than forced. When marketing budgets are cut, however, our ability to be creative becomes more of a necessity and compels us to see what more can be achieved with less. Ironically, marketing budget scarcity can often then result in unexpected resourcefulness. i Adam Cahill, SVP and General Manager of Carat Boston and ClickZ.com columnist believes that reduced marketing budgets may be a blessing in disguise. “The marketing with the biggest impact can't actually be bought anyhow, so it's still within your reach.” These times of marketing budget scrutiny, right or wrong, are perfect for “spring cleaning” and making the time to truly reevaluate every marketing dollar being invested, no matter how large or small that expenditure. A few questions to consider as you rework your 2009 marketing dollars include: • What marketing programs or campaigns have not resulted in solid, measurable ROI? • What marketing programs or campaigns can be further combined or integrated? • What soft-ROI marketing activities get to stay and which ones do not? • Where can sales and marketing collaborate even further? • What new analytics, metrics or measurements tool(s) can provide better insight into our marketing operations? • What are our marketing partners/agencies doing for us that we can’t do in-house? • What marketing functions or tasks are we doing in-house that would be far more cost- effective to outsource? • What communications can make the successful shift towards (more) digital? In the end, it’s all about sensible marketing. Cut the frills and shave off the excesses. Marketing in 2009 is all about being lean, streamlining and integrating wherever possible. Marketing Strategist, publicity assistant & social media enthusiast Mayra Ruiz-McPherson Economic Outlook for 2009 and its Impact on Marketing Budgets I www.mayraruiz.com Page 8 of 9 If your organization, non-profit or small business needs assistance with developing out-of-the-box publicity programs and marketing campaigns, I can help. With more than 14 years of experience in developing marketing programs, managing brands and generating publicity for clients in diverse industries, I can provide objective, outside-looking-in perspective which can often be the refreshing kick-start your publicity needs! Contact me today at mayra@mayraruiz.com and let me know how I can be of service. Did you know? I am presently authoring several books covering a variety of marketing and publicity topics; the first book is scheduled to debut in 2009! Want to be notified when any of my books, e-books or special reports (like this one) become available? Sign up to receive my e-newsletter to stay ahead on all my publishing updates. Thank you for visiting my site and downloading this resource. Please feel free to share it with others who may benefit from this information. Mayra Ruiz-McPherson the marketing misfit www.mayraruiz.com Marketing Strategist, publicity assistant & social media enthusiast Mayra Ruiz-McPherson Economic Outlook for 2009 and its Impact on Marketing Budgets I www.mayraruiz.com Page 9 of 9 . examine their marketing budgets for the upcoming year economic outlook for 2009 and its impact on marketing budgets mayraruiz.com email marketing & web design public relations & outreach branding. emphasis on developing web- based marketing due to cost-effectiveness. "It's a good place to pre-test direct mail." Marketing Strategist, publicity assistant & social media. Reduced marketing staff for reduced overhead Marketing Strategist, publicity assistant & social media enthusiast Mayra Ruiz-McPherson Economic Outlook for 2009 and its Impact on Marketing