BO GIAO DUC VA DAO TAO TRUONG DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN  fcm•oacQ  PHAN TIEN NGOC TAC HONG CCJA DA DANG HOA MAT HANG XUAT KHAU DEN TANG TIRLYO'NG KINH TE VI ET NAM Chuyen nganh: Kinh 4 phat trien Ma so: 62.31.01.05 LUAN AN TIEN Si KINH TE Ngtrefi hwolig d&n khoa hoc: 1. PGS.TS PHAN THI NHItM 2. PGS.TS NGUYEN THI MINH HA NOI - 2014 LO'I CAM DOAN Toi xin cam loan day la cong trinh nghien cfru khoa hoc d6c lap dm toi. Cac thong tin, so lieu trong Juan an la trung thuc va co ngu6n g6c r6 rang cu the. Ket qua nghien ciru trong Juan an chua tong du9c cong 136 trong bat 14 cong trinh nghien cfru nao khac. Tic gia LOn an MUC LUC MUC LUC  ii DANH MUC CAC BANG  DANH MUC SO DO VA BIEU DO  vi DANH MUC CAC Tif VIET TAT  vii PHAN MO DAU  viii CHIYONG 1: CO SO LY LUAN NGHIEN CfrU TAC BONG CUA DA DANG HOA MAT HANG XUAT KHAU DEN TANG TRU'ONG KINH TE  1 1.1. Tang trtrerng kinh to va cac nhan to tic Ong  1 1.1.1. Khai niem tang trtramg kinh to  1 1.1.2. MOt so thtrac do thu nhap Aid tang twang kinh to chti yeti  2 1.1.3. Cac nhan to tac Ong tai tang truing kinh to  6 1.2. Cu sii , 15T luau ve da dong hoa mat hang xuat khan  11 1.2.1. Quan niem ve da clang h6a va tap trung h6a mat hang xuat khan  11 1.2.2. Phan loci da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau  15 1.2.3. Do hieing da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau  17 1.2.4. Cac yeti to anh huong den da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau  22 1.3.Co . s& khoa hoc nghien cum tac &Ong  da (long hoa mat hang xuat khan den tang truirng kinh to  31 1.3.1. Ca so . 1y thuyet ve tac Ong cua da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau doi vai tang truth - 1g kinh to  31 1.3.2. Kenh tac dOng cda da dang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh to  39 1.3.3. TOng quan nghien thu thuc nghiem tac , dOng cua da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh to  41 1.3.4. MO hinh va gia thiet nghien thu  49 CHIYONG 2: THI1C TRANG DA DANG HOA MAT HANG XUAT KHAU CUA VIET NAM GIAI DOAN 1991-2011  54 2.1. Tling quan xuat khan ciia Viet Nam giai down 1991-2011  54 2.1.1. Quy mO va t6c dO tang truong xuat khdu  54 2.1.2. Ca call mat hang xuat khau  56 2.1.3. Co can xuat khau phan theo khu vuc kinh to  58 2.1.4. Ca cau thi truOng xuat khau  60 2.2. Phan tich thtyc trong da dong hOa mat hang xuat klAu dm Viet Nam  65 ii 2.2.1. Phan tich da dang h6a dua tren th6ng ke s6 luting chfing loci mat hang  65 2.2.2. Phan tich da clang hoa dua tren chi s6 Herfindahl (HI)  66 2.2.3. Phan tich da clang hoa dua tren ty trong xuat khAu san ph'am ch'e bien  68 2.2.4. Phan tich da clang h6a dtra tren chi s6 Theil Etropy  73 2.2.5. Phan tich da clang Ma lgi the so sanh cua cac mat hang xuat khau  75 2.3. Dinh gii chung ve da d#ng hoa mat hang xuat khAu cua WO Nam  78 2.3.1. Nhung mat tich ctrc  78 2.3.2. Nhang han che, thach fink  80 2.3.3. Cac nguyen nhan anh huang den da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau dia. Viet Nam  81 CHVONG 3: DANH GIA TAC BONG CUA DA DANG HOA MAT HANG XUAT KHAU DEN TANG TRIXCING KINH TE VIVT NAM  87 3.1. T6ng quan tang trusEeng kinh t6 Vqt Nam  87 3.1.1. Quy mo va t6c dO tang truang chung cua nen kinh to  87 3.1.2. Quy mo va t6c dO tang truang cua cac nganh  90 3.2. Phan tich dinh tinh tacc r dOng  da d#ng h6a mat hang xuat khAu den tang trtromg kinh t o WO Nam  94 3.2.1. M6i quan he giaa da clang h6a chung 14 mat hang xuat khau va tang truang kinh to  94 3.2.2. M6i quan he gifia chi s6 tap trung hoa mat hang xuat khau Herfindahl va tang twang kinh to  96 3.2.3. M6i quan he glib chi so da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau Theil Etropy va tang truang kinh to  99 3.2.4. Mo'i quan he gift tS71e san pham ch'e bien xuat khau va tang truang kinh to  100 3.2.5. M6i quan he giita da clang h6a lgi the so sanh va tang twang kinh to  101 3.3. Phan tich dinh luvng tac Ong cua da dang hoa mat hang xuat khan den tang tru6ng kinh to WO Nam  103 3.3.1. Vai net ve mo hinh va phuang phap uac luting  103 3.3.2. MO to cac bien va so lieu  106 3.3.3. Dinh lugng mo hinh va phan tich ket qua  108 3.4. Danh gia chung tac Ong cua da d#ng hoa mat hang xuat khan d6n tang truomg kinh to VI* Nam  120 iii CHU'ONG 4: DINH HIJONG DA DANG HOA MAT HANG XUAT KHAU VA CAC GIAI PHAP THVC HItN NHAM THUC DAY TANG TRIfoNG KINH TE VIET NAM  125 4.1. Can co' dinh huovg da d#ng h6a mat hang xuat khau dm Viet Nam den nam 2020, tam nhin 2030  125 4.1.1. Xu the phat trien dia nen kinh to toan cau tac dOng tad da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau trong thoi gian toi  125 4.1.2. Dinh huOng chien ltr9c phat trien kinh to Viet Nam den nam 2020  129 4.1.3. Dinh huang chuyen dOi mo hinh tang twang kinh to cilia Viet Nam  130 4.1.4. Dinh huang xuat khau ciia Viet Nam  131 4.2. Quan diem ya dinh hu&ng thtfc hien da d4ng hoa mat hang xuat khau den nam 2020, tam nhin 2030  133 4.2.1. Quan diem thuc hien da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau  133 4.2.2. Dinh huong thuc hien da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau nham thuc day tang truang kinh to Viet Nam  135 4.3. MCA so giai phap thkre hien da d4ng hoa mat hang xuat khAu nhim thuc day tang truing kinh to Viet Nam  139 4.3.1. Giai phap xac dinh va hinh thanh danh muc mat hang xuat khau mui nh9n de da clang hoa theo chieu sau  139 4.3.2. Giai phap ve dau to thuc hien da clang hOa mat hang xuat khau  141 4.3.3. Giai phap nang cao chat luvng ngtiOn nhan luc dap irng yeu cau da dang h6a mat hang xuat khau  144 4.3.4. Giai phap phat trien khoa hoc cong nghe nham da dang hoa mat hang xuat khau  145 4.3.5. Giai phap phat trien cong nghiephO trg nham thuc hien da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau  147 4.3.6. Giai phap ve tai chinh, tin dung nham da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau  149 4.3.7. Giai phap hoan thien co the chinh sach quan 1Y va dieu hanh xuat khau  150 4.3.8. Giai phap xfic lien thuang mai thuc hien da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau  153 KET LUNN  155 DANH MIJC CAC CONG TRINH CUA TAC GIA  157 DANH Ml(JC TAI LIEU THAM KHAO  158 PHLJ IAJC  167 iv DANH MUC CAC BANG Bang 2.1: Co cau mg hang xuat khau dm V* Nam giai doan 1995-2011  57 Bang 2.2: Ca cdu xuat khau phan theo khu vuc kinh to giai doan 2000-2011  59 Bang 2.3: Cac thi trung xuat khau hang h6a leen nhat cila V* Nam  62 Bang 2.4: Chi s6 tap trung h6a mat hang xuat khau Herfindahl cua cac nuac can Saharan va Bong A  67 Bang 2.5: He s6 Mang quan hang Spearman dOi vai chi s6 PRODY va RCA  72 Bang 2.6: Da clang hoa giita cac nh6m hang va da dang h6a trong not 116 nh6m hang  74 Bang 3.1: Gia tri san xuat va t6c dO tang truang cua cac nh6m nganh kinh to o V* Nam  90 Bang 3.2: 1(6t qua ki6m dinh tinh citing cua cac bin so trong mo hinh  108 Bang 3.3: K6t qua u6 . c lugng tac &Ong cua da clang h6a mat hang xuat khAu d6n tang truang GDP  109 Bang 3.4: Kim dinh m6i quan he nhan qua Granger giaa da clang h6a mg hang xuat khau voi lao &Ong va dau tu  111 Bang 3.5: K6t qua ware lugng tac &Ong cua da clang h6a theo chi'eu rOng den tang truong GDP  1 1 6 Bang 3.6: K6t qua uac luting tac dOng cua da clang h6a theo chi"au sau d6n tang trugng GDP  117 Bang 3.7: Kim dinh m6i quan he nhan qua Granger Oita da clang hoa mat hang xuat khAu voi lao dOng va dau tu  118 DANH MUC SO DO VA BIEU DO So dO 1.1: MO hinh tong cung, tang cdu cila nen kinh to  10 So dO 1.2: Quan niem ve da dpg h6a xuat khdu cila Alberto Amurgo-Pacheco va Martha Denisse Pierola (2008)  12 So do 1.3: Cac giai down da dpg h6a mat hang xuat khdu  14 Bieu do 2.1: Tec dO tang tnrang xuat khdu, GDP va tST le XK/GDP  54 Bieu dO 2.2: Co cau mat hang xuat khau cua Viet Nam thai kST 1991-2011  56 Bieu do 2.3: Co cAu xuat khdu phan theo khu vuc kinh to sau khi da tach xuat khdu dau tho  60 Bieu dO 2.4: Co cdu thi trung xuat khAu cda Viet Nam  61 Bleu dO 2.5: Se luang chfing loci mat hang xuat khdu cua Viet Nam giai don 2001-2011  65 Bleu do 2.6: Chi so tap trung h6a mat hang xuat khdu Herfindahi oda Viet Nam  67 Bleu do 2.7: Ty trong mat hang the bien trong tong se mat hang xuat khdutheo bang phan loci tieu chuan ngoai thuang  68 Bieu dO 2.8: Ti S trong ham Wong ding nghe trong cac mat hang the bien XK  70 Bleu dO 2.9: Mdc dO phirc tap hay nang sudt cua giO hang hoa xuat khAu Viet Nam  71 Bleu dO 2.10: Chi se PRODY cac nhom hang xuat khdu dia. Viet Nam  73 Bleu do 2.11: Chi se da dpg boa mat hang xuat khdu Theil Etropy  74 Bieu dO 2.12: SO lugng chi:mg 14 mat hang c6 RCA cao cua Viet Nam  76 Bieu dO 2.13: Thay d6i co cdu lgi the so sanh theo nhom hang  77 Bleu dO 2.14: Thay doi co cAn l q i the so sanh theo ham lugng khoa hoc-cong nghe  78 Bleu dO 3.1: Tiic dO tang truing kinh to Viet Nam 1991-2011  87 Bi4u dO 3.2: Da dpg hoa chi:mg lo4i mat hang xuat khdu va kim ng4ch xuat khau cila Viet Nam  95 13C4u do 3.3: Da dpg hoa chung 14 mat hang xuat khdu va tec dO tang GDP cda Viet Nam  96 Bi6'u dO 3.4: Chi so tap trung hoa Herfindahi va tang truing kinh t6  97 Bieu dO 3.5: 1\46i quan he gida chi se Herfindahi va tang truing kinh to cua Malaixia va Thai Lan  98 Bleu do 3.6: Mei quan he gida chi se Herfindahi va tang truing kinh to cila Chile va Uganda  98 Bleu dO 3.7: Chi se) da dqng hoa mat hang xuat khdu Theil Etropy va tang truing kinh to  100 Bieu dO 3.8: Ty le hang xudt khdu the bien va tang truing kinh t6  101 Bieu dO 3.9: Ty le mat hang xuat khdu c6 lgi the so sanh hien him va tang truing kinh t6  102 Bleu dO 3.10: Phan dng cda tang truing GDP tnroc cac cu shock  114 Bleu dO 3.11: Phan img cda GDP truck cac cu shock tir da d4ng boa theo chieu rOng va chieu sau  119 vi DANH MUC CAC Tir VIET TAT ASEAN  Hiep hOi cac nu& Dong Nam A ARDL  Tr6 phan phi to h6i quy BCHTW  Ban chap hanh Trung uong BTA  Hiep dinh thuang mai song phuang vai Hoa Ky ED  Da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau EU  Lien minh chau Au HED  Da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau theo chieu rOng HO  Ly thuyet Hecksher-Ohlin HI  Chi s6 tap trung h6a Herfindhal HS  He th6ng thuang mai hai hem GDP  T6ng san pham qu6c not GMM  Phuang phap momen tong quat GSO  T6ng cvc th6ng ke IMF  Quy" tien to qu6c to FDI  Dau to truc tiep nu& ngodi M2  Cung tin M2 NIEs  Cac nen kinh t6 mgi not OLS  Phuang phap binh phuong nho nhat RCA  Lai the so sanh hien him SITC  Phan loci thuang mai chuan qu6c t SNA  He th6ng tai khoan qu6c gia TheilT  Chi so Theil Etropy TFP  Nang suat cac nhan to tong hgp USD  DO la My UN  Lien hgp qu6c VAR  MO hinh vec to to h6i quy VECM  MO hinh vec to hieu chinh sai s6 VED  Da clang hOa mat hang xuat khau theo chi'eu sau WB  Ngan hang the giai WTO  T6 chirc thuang mai the giai XK  Xuat khau vii PHAN MO DAU 1. Tinh cap thitt ctia cue tai Trong lich sir phat trien kinh to hoc, m6i quan he gifia xuat khAu va tang truang kinh to la chit de dugc nghien cdu tir rat sam va nhanh chong thu but &mg dao nhieu hoc gia not tieng. Ngay tir tiled Adam Smith (1723-1790), trong the phAm not tieng "nguein g6c su giAu c6 cua cac dan t8c", A.Smith da" nhAn manh tam quan tong cua viec xuat khAu hang h6a nhu mot nhan to san xuat gia tri thong du, va la mot phuong tin de ma Ong thi truang, dong thai gOp phAn cai thien phan cong lao Ong va nang cao nang su'At lao dOng [1]. Ke tir dO den nay, d5c biet tir nhang nom 1960s tra lai day, to do h6a thuang mai, thgc hien chinh sach huang ngoai va tittle dAy xuat khAu duqc coi la d8ng luc phat trien cita nen kinh te Tuy nhien tr'en thgc te, khong phai ntrac nao ding thgc hien thanh cong chiL lugc nay. Co mac thgc hien kha thanh cong chiL lugc tang twang duo vao xuat khAu (cac nen kinh te moi not a Dong A NIEs), nhung cling c6 nhieu queic gia dang phat trien khac a Nam A, chau My latin lai thgc hien khong may thanh cong. Dieu nay (la dan den cu8c tranh luan soi not ve vai trO cua xuat khAu d6i \Ted tang truang kinh te. Va mot gia thiet dirge nhieu hoc gia d5t ra la: c6 le vai to cua xuat khAu d6i vai tang truang kinh to khong phai chi la quy mo, kh6i lugng xuat khAu, ma quan tong hart dO chinh la cL true r6 hang hoa xuat khAu cita qu6c De lap Juan va chtng minh gia thiet nay, cac truang phai ly7 thuyet d5 di sau tim hieu cau true re) hang h6a xuat khau va tac demg cila no den tang truang kinh te. Nhieu nghien cuu cho rang que)c gia cO cAu true r6 hang h6a xuat kh'Au da clang han se it bi ton thuang han truck nhung bier' Ong ye gia ca, nhu cAu cua thi truang the gied; nhang nuac c6 nhieu san phAm cite bien han, co ham luang khoa hoc cong nghe cao han se c6 lgi the han trong trao d6i buon ban Wei nhung nuac chit yeu xuat khAu cac mat hang the), sa che, tham dung lao d8ng 016 thong. Chinh vi vay, nhieu nguai ggi )'7 rang cac qu6c gia dang phat trien nen ma remg san xuat nhieu chi:mg loci san phAm xuat khAu, da clang h6a co cL mat hang xuat khAu de giant thieu nhang the Ong tieu cgc do str bien demg ve thi truang, d'ong thai gop phAn cai thien he s6 trao doi thuang mai (terms of trade), tat) hieu Ung lan too, nang cao gia tri hang xuat khAu thong qua da clang hoa theo chieu sau. Viet Nam-m8t que)c gia dang phat trien a Dong Nam A, ngay sau khi tin hanh d6i mai nen kinh te (1986), Bang va Nha nuac da chit truong thgc hien chien lugc phat trien kinh te huang manh ye xuat khAu. Van kin Doi he)i Bai bieu toan queic ran thir VI kh'ang dinh: cong cu8c de)i mai truck mat phai "tap trung sire ngtr61, sic cua vao viec thy'c hien cho &rat. ba chtrang trinh myc tieu ve hrang thvc-thtrc ph ' am, hang viii tieu dung va hang xuat nhap khau "[2]. Tiep do, tai 116i nghl Dai h6i dai bieu toan qu6c Oita nhiemlkhoa VII, Dang va nha nuac da xac dinh, ltra chgn chien lugc phat trien kinh to "htrang manh ve xuat khau, clang theft thay the nhap khau bang nhfrng san pham trong nu& san xuat c6 hi eu qua "[2]. ChiL lugc nay tiep tvc dugc quan triet trong cac l(ST Dai lt6i VIII, IX, X va (lac biet Dai h6i dai bieu toan qu6c lAn thi.r XI nhAn manh: "Day manh va khuyen khich xuat khau, dac biet la &tang mat hang moi, san pham the bien, ch'j tao cc; ham luvng khoa hoc cong nghe cao, gia tri gia tang cao; giam manh xuat khau nguyen lieu, khoang san, san pham tho."[2]. Thuc hien chic truang do, sau km 27 nam dai mad, hog Ong xuAt khau cua nu& to da dat dugc nhang nhang thanh tqu rat dang khich le. Quy ma kim ngach xuAt khAu nam 2012 tang hon 145 lAn so vai nam 1986. XuAt khAu binh quan dAu nguai tang tir 11,7 USD/nguai nam 1985, len 393,8 USD nam 2005 va dat 1306 USD nam 2012. Co cAu mat hang xuAt khAu co nhang chuyen bien tich cgc. San phAm xuAt khAu ngay cang da dang va phong phu hon. Ben canh nhang mat hang khoang san, nong san xuAt kh'Au, ngay nay da xuAt hien ngay cang nhieu mat hang xuat khAu mai nhu: 'tong san the bien, det may, da giAy, may mac, thiet b] diL, dien tir Qua trinh da dang h6a mat hang xuAt khAu do da g6p phAn dem lai nhirng thuan led de nen kinh t6 tang truang nhanh va on dinh trong nhang nam qua. Tuy nhien, nhin tong the co cAu xuAt khAu cua Viet Nam van chn y'eu la cac mat hang co ngu6n g6c tir tai nguyen thien nhi'en, gia cong xuAt khAu, gia tri gia tang thAp. Nhang mat hang nay co dac diem la: d6 co gian cua cAu theo thu nhap thAp; gia ca thuang co xu twang giam trong tuong quan vai gia ca cua cac mat hang the bien, chlu nhieu "thua thiet" trong quan he trao d6i qu6c te, va lam tang nguy co can kiet tai nguyen. Han 'lira, do tap trung vao nhung nhom mat hang nay nen tang truang xuAt khAu cua Viet Nam khong on dinh, phu thu6c fat lan vao gia ca, nhu cAu th] truemg, chinh sach thuang mai qu6c to cua cac d6i tac [10], [44]. Thirc t6 do dat ra mot van de can nghien ciru do la: lieu ca cau mat hang xuat khau cua Viet Nam CO thtrc str da clang hay khong? n'ju co thi xu &rang da clang h6a nhu. the nao? mire do da clang bao nhieu? va str da clang h6a do anh luro.ng nhtr the nao den tang trtro.ng kinh t J e? Tra lai nhang cau lied do clang chinh la gop phAn xem xet lai vai tn . ) cua xuAt khAu, dac biet la co cAu mat hang xuAt khAu d6i vai tang truang kinh to Viet Nam trong thai gian qua; d6ng thai la co sa de cac nha hoach dinh chinh sach tai co cAu mat hang xuAt khAu nham dam bao tang truang nhanh va ben \Tang cua nen kinh to theo con duang thfic day xuat khau. Xuat phat tix nhang 17 do tren, nghien ciru sinh chon de tai: "Ttic d'Ong cua da dyng h6a melt hang xuat din tang tru'O'ng kinh to Viet Nam" lam luan an nghien cfru cua minh. ix [...]... truang kinh t6 V* Nam Ngodi ra, trong met se nghien cfru ve hei nhap quec to cita Viet Nam nhu: Bao cao "Danh gia tac &Ong tong the khi Viet Nam tra thanh thanh vien cua WTO den thay doi xuat nhap khau va the che" cua Du an ho try chinh sach thuang mai da bien (MUTRAP); Bao cao "Mc deng cna hei nhap kinh t6 quec to doi vai nen kinh to sau ba nam Viet Nam gia nhap WTO cna Vien Nghien cfru guar' 1)'T kinh. .. hang xuat khau den tang twang kinh to Viet Nam Chuang 4: Dinh huang da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau va cac giai phap thuc hien nham thfic day tang truang kinh to Viet Nam xiv Chuang 1: CO SO LY LUNN NGHIEN Cf1t TAC BONG 0[U BA DANG HOA MAT HANG XUAT KHAU BEN TANG TRUONG KINH TE 1.1 TANG TRVONG KINH TE VA CAC NHAN TO TAC BONG 1.1.1 Khai niem tang trtdrng kinh te' Tang truang kinh to la mot trong nhfing... t6c d'6 tang truong nam t Yt la GDP ho4c GNI thuc to nam t tinh theo gia nam co so Yt-i la GDP hoac GNI thuc t6 nam t-1 tinh theo gia nam co so Do luting teic d6 tang truong binh quan cho ca tiled ky, dugc xac dinh bang cong thirc sau: d GDP = n-1 GDPn GDP° x 100 (1.7) Trong do: dGDP la t6c d6 tang truong GDP binh quan cho ca tiled ky to nam g6c 0 d'6n nam thir n GDPn la GDP cu6i nam thir n cua thai... d4ng hoa mit • tfingirtning kinh to Viet Nam, Phiro'ng phap nghien cfru dinh luvng: (Mo hinh vec to to hoi quy VAR) Nghien cull cac dinh hweeng phat trial chung ciia WO Nam Nghien cum xu the Oat trien cila n en kinh to toil' au •• I • V A A quan them, dinh htthng va giai phi") thin hien da 4ng hoa mat X xuat X X A hang xuat khan nham thtle day tang truirng kinh to vqt Nam 6 Y nghia khoa hoc va time... clang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh to Viet Nam Oa tren mo hinh vec to to hOi quy VAR Kat qua nghien thu dinh luting cho thay da dang hoa mat hang xuat khau co anh huang tich cue den tang truang kinh t6 Viet Nam ca trong ngan han va dai han Dang chu Y, ca clang h6a mat hang xuat khau theo chieu sau va theo chieu rOng deu thfic day tang truang kinh te Tuy nhien da clang Ma mat hang xuat... tang twang kinh to nhanh va ben \rang theo con duang thfic day xuat khau cila Viet Nam trong nhang nam 7 Kk cAu ciia 1u4n an Ngodi phan ma dau, kat luAn, danh muc tai lieu tham khao, plw Luc, luan an gOm 4 chuong Cu the nhu sau: Chuang 1: Ca sa ly luan nghien ciru tac &Ong cua da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh t Chnong 2: Thuc trang da clang hoa mat hang xuat khAu cua Viet Nam giai... khau den tang twang kinh te - Phan tich, danh gia mirc 0, xu huong da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau cna Viet Nam tir dei mai den nay - Danh gia tac &Ong cna da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau cl6n tang truang kinh t6 Viet Nam trong tiled gian qua xi - De xuat dinh huang va mat s6 giai phap thuc hien da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau nham dam bao tang truang nhanh va ben \Tang cda nen kinh te theo con duang... dang h6a mat hang xuat khau cna Viet Nam Tuy nhien nhung nghien dm nay chi xem xet tac deng cna hei nhap kinh t6 qu6c to den da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau chu khong trvc tier, phan tich mire 0, xu twang da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau dm Viet Nam Han nib, cac nghien ciru tren ding chua xem xet tac &Ong cda da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh to Viet Nam Do do viec nghien cfru da clang... binh quan dau ngtr6i Chi khi mot nen kinh t6 co sty vuot tr6i ctia gia tang GDP so vai tang truong dan s6 thi n'en kinh t6 do mai co tang truong thu nhap binh quan dau ngtred, hay not each khac, nguai dan cna nuac do mai c6 su tang truong ve thu nhap 5 1.1.3 Cac nhan to tac dOng toi tang tru*ng kinh to Tang truang kinh to la yau to quan trong nhat quy dinh phfic lgi kinh t6 cua nguai dan moi qu6c gia... dieu tiet nen kinh t6 Buac sang the kSt XX, lehiing hoang kinh te the giai dien ra nghiem tr9ng (thai kS7 1929-1933) dot cho thay cac ly7 thuyet ye tang truang kinh to truac day chua thyc six phan anh day du v'e nguyen nhan tang truang kinh t6 John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) yeti tac pharn "1_,y thuyet chung ve viec lam, lai suat va tien te" dot danh dau sly ra dei cua mot truang phai kinh to hoc mod . chien ltr9c phat trien kinh to Viet Nam den nam 2020  129 4.1.3. Dinh huang chuyen dOi mo hinh tang twang kinh to cilia Viet Nam  130 4.1.4. Dinh huang xuat khau ciia Viet Nam  131 4.2. Quan. HANG XUAT KHAU DEN TANG TRIXCING KINH TE VIVT NAM  87 3.1. T6ng quan tang trusEeng kinh t6 Vqt Nam  87 3.1.1. Quy mo va t6c dO tang truang chung cua nen kinh to  87 3.1.2. Quy mo va t6c. (MUTRAP); Bao cao "Mc deng cna hei nhap kinh t6 quec to doi vai nen kinh to sau ba nam Viet Nam gia nhap WTO cna Vien Nghien cfru guar' 1)'T kinh to Trung tieing cling da tinh toan,