© 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Natural Hazards Analysis Reducing the Impact of Disasters © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Natural Hazards Analysis John C. Pine Reducing the Impact of Disasters © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Auerbach Publications Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Auerbach is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business No claim to original U.S. Government works Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 International Standard Book Number-13: 978-1-4200-7038-5 (Hardcover) This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher can- not assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use. 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CCC is a not-for-profit organization that pro- vides licenses and registration for a variety of users. For organizations that have been granted a photocopy license by the CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Pine, John C., 1946- Natural hazards analysis : reducing the impact of disasters / John Pine. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-4200-7038-5 1. Disasters Social aspects. 2. Emergency management. 3. Preparedness. 4. Community organization. 5. Disasters—Risk assessment. 6. Risk management. I. Title. HV553.P528 2008 363.34’7 dc22 2008023245 Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the Auerbach Web site at http://www.auerbach-publications.com © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC v Contents Preface xv Acknowledgments xvii 1 Introduction to Hazards Analysis 1 Objectives 1 Key Terms 1 Issue 2 Introduction 2 Terminology of Hazards 2 Views of Extreme Natural Events as Primary Causes of Disasters 6 A Changing Hazard Paradigm 7 Hazards Analysis 9 Hazard Identification 10 Vulnerability Analysis 10 Risk Analysis 11 Linking Hazards Analysis to Risk and Comprehensive Emergency Management 12 Communicating Risk from a Hazards Analysis 15 Community Involvement in Hazards Analysis 17 Values in Community Engagement 18 Human Social and Cultural Heritage Elements 18 Protective Actions 18 Constructed and Physical Environment 18 Conclusion 19 Discussion Questions 22 Applications 23 Web Sites 23 References 24 2 Hazard Identification 29 Objectives 29 © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC vi  Contents Key Terms 29 Issue 30 Introduction 30 Hazard Identification Process 31 Organizing a Hazard Identification Team 33 Creating a Community Profile 33 Social, Physical, and Environmental Assets 34 Environmental or Natural Assets 35 Social Environment 37 Built Environment 37 Infrastructure 38 Critical Facilities 38 Economic Activities 38 Mapping Community Assets and Hazards 39 Interdependence of Communities 41 Identifying Community Problems 42 Problem-Solving Process 43 Problem Solving in an Ill-Structured Environment 46 Decision Traps 47 Conclusions 47 Discussion Questions 48 Applications 48 Hazard Web Sites 49 Maps 49 References 49 3 Modeling Natural Environmental Hazards 51 Objectives 51 Key Terms 51 Issue 52 Introduction 52 e Role of Hazard Modeling in Hazards Analysis 52 Linking GIS and Environmental Models 55 Nature and Types of Models 57 Dynamic 57 Combination 57 Deterministic 58 Probabilistic 58 Hazard Models 59 HAZUS-MH Model 59 HAZUS-MH Analysis 61 Case Study: Data Sources for Flood Modeling 62 Assessing Hazard Models 65 © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Contents  vii Quality 65 Timeliness 68 Completeness 69 Data Accuracy, Resolution, and Availability 70 Advantages and Disadvantages of Hazard Models 71 Hazard Profiles 73 Type of Hazard 74 Sources of Hazard Information 74 Frequency of Occurrence 75 Magnitude 76 Location and Spatial Extent 76 Duration 76 Seasonal Pattern 76 Speed of Onset 77 Availability of Warnings 77 Hazard Profile Sample for a Tornado 78 Description of Hazard 78 Potential Magnitude 78 Frequency of Occurrence 78 Seasonal Pattern 78 Probable Duration 78 Potential Speed of Onset 79 Identify Existing Warning Mechanisms 79 Identify Location and Spatial Extent of Potential Event 79 Conclusions 79 Discussion Questions 80 Applications 80 Web Sites 81 Avalanches 81 Coastal Storms 81 Dam Safety 82 Drought 82 Earthquakes 82 Flooding 82 Heat 83 Landslides 83 Lightning 83 Snowstorms 83 Tornadoes 83 Tsunamis 84 Wildfires 84 References 85 © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC viii  Contents 4 Spatial Analysis 87 Objectives 87 Key Terms 87 Issue 88 Introduction 88 Definition of Spatial Analysis 88 Geospatial Data Set 89 Spatial Data Quality 92 Types of Spatial Analysis 95 Queries 95 Measurements 96 Transformations 97 Buffering 98 Descriptive Summaries 99 Optimization Techniques 99 Hypothesis Testing 99 Spatial Data Visualization 100 Choropleth Maps 102 Conclusions 104 Discussion Questions 105 Applications 105 Web Sites 105 References 106 5 Risk Analysis: Assessing the Risks of Natural Hazards 107 Objectives 107 Key Terms 107 Introduction 108 e Process of Risk Analysis 108 What Is Risk? 109 Quantitative Analysis of Risk 110 Qualitative Representation of Consequence 111 Views of Risk 111 Using Historical Data in Determining Risk 114 e Need for Complete Accurate Data for Decision Making 115 Using Technical Data in Decision Making 116 Indicators of Direct and Indirect Losses 117 Issues in Risk Analysis 119 Changes in Disaster Frequency 119 Availability of Essential Data 119 Depth of Analysis 121 Dealing with Uncertainty 123 Relative Ranking of Risks 123 © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Contents  ix Priority Rating 126 Acceptable Risk 127 Risk Benefits 127 Determining Risk Acceptability 128 Personal 128 Political/Social 128 Economic 129 Risk Strategies 129 Accept the Risk 129 Extremely Low Likelihood of Risk 129 Mandatory Risk Level 130 Discussion Questions 130 Applications 131 Web Sites 131 References 131 6 Social, Economic, and Ecological Vulnerability 135 Objectives 135 Key Terms 135 Introduction 136 Approaches to Vulnerability 136 Dimensions of Vulnerability 139 Social and Human Vulnerability 140 Economic Vulnerability 141 Environmental Vulnerability 142 Measuring Vulnerability 144 Indicators of Social Conditions 144 Indicators of Economic Conditions 147 Indicators of Environmental Conditions 148 Methodological Issues 150 Weighting, Data Availability, and Accuracy 151 Multiyear Analysis 152 Interdependence of Social, Economic, and Ecological Capital 153 Discussion Questions 154 Applications 154 Web Sites 154 References 155 7 Risk Communication 159 Objectives 159 Key Terms 159 Issue 160 Introduction 160 © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC x  Contents Risk Communication 161 e Risk Communication Process 162 Barriers in Risk Communication 163 Target Audience of Risk Communication 166 Risk Communication Tools 167 Communicating Risks with Maps 167 Figures 169 Community Engagement 172 Risk Communication Myths 173 Managing Risks 175 Decision Making 176 Community Engagement in Hazards Analysis 177 Stakeholder Involvement 180 Ethics and Decision Making 182 Legal Issues in Decision Making 184 Indemnification 186 Acknowledging Risk as a Part of Risk Communication 186 Learning as a Part of Risk Communication 187 Discussion Questions 188 Applications 189 Web Sites 189 References 189 8 e Hazards Risk Management Process 193 GREG SHAW Objectives 193 Key Terms 193 Issue 194 Introduction 194 Terminology 195 Risk Management 197 Hazards Risk Management Framing Questions 200 Framework for Hazards Risk Management 201 Components of the Hazards Risk Management Process 202 Communicate and Consult (A Continual Component of the HRM Process) 202 Monitor and Review (A Continual Component of the HRM Process) 203 Step 1: Establish the Context 203 Organizational/Community Context 203 Stakeholder Involvement 204 Objectives 204 Step 2: Identify the Hazards 205 © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Contents  xi Comprehensive Hazard Identification 205 Hazard Identification Strategy—Organization/ Community Resources 205 Hazard Identification Strategy—Web Resources 205 Categorizing Hazards 206 Step 3: Assess the Hazard Risk 206 Hazard Risk Assessment Strategy 206 Step 4: Sort the Hazards by Risk Magnitude 207 Sorting Strategies 207 e Use of Expert Judgment 208 Step 5: Analyze the Risks from Each Hazard 208 Hazards Risk Analysis Strategy 208 Categorizing the Hazard Risk 209 Step 6: Group and Prioritize the Hazard Risks and Consider Risk Management Interventions 209 Grouping and Prioritizing Strategy 209 Consider Hazard Risk Element Interventions 210 Application of the Hazards Risk Management Process 211 Overview 211 Step 1: Establish the Context 212 Organizational/Community Context 212 Stakeholder Involvement 212 Objectives 213 Step 2: Identify the Hazards 213 Step 3: Assess the Hazard Risk 213 Hazard Risk Assessment Strategy 213 Step 4: Sort the Hazards by Risk Magnitude 214 Step 5: Analyze the Risks from Each Hazard 214 Step 6: Group and Prioritize the Hazard Risks and Consider Risk Management Interventions 215 Grouping and Prioritizing Strategy 215 Consider Hazard Risk Element Interventions 215 Hazards Risk Management and Comprehensive Risk Management 217 Discussion Questions 217 Applications 218 Web Sites 219 References 219 9 Planning for Sustainable and Disaster Resilient Communities 221 GAVIN SMITH Objectives 221 Key Terms 221 Introduction 223 [...]... (NRT 19 87) This approach uses a © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 10     Natural Hazards Analysis: Reducing the Impact of Disasters Hazards Analysis Hazards Identification Vulnerability Analysis Risk Analysis Identify hazard Vulnerability zone Likelihood of incident Location Human populations Severity Quantity of chemical Critical facilities Consequences Nature of hazards Environment Figure 1. 1  U.S... Figure 1. 1  U.S Environmental Protection Agency hazards analysis process process format in providing communities with a broad understanding of hazards and risks NRT -1 defines hazard analysis as a three-step process: (1) hazard identification, (2) vulnerability analysis, and (3) risk analysis This approach to hazards analysis stresses the need for broad-based information to support community decision... environmental systems 5 Define the hazards analysis process and its links to hazards risk management and comprehensive emergency management 6 Explain why communicating risk is so critical in a hazards analysis Key Terms Hazards Disaster Vulnerability Hazards analysis Vulnerability assessment Consequence assessment Risk 1 © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 2    Natural Hazards Analysis: Reducing the Impact... included as a vital part of the hazards analysis process John C Pine Director, Disaster Science & Management Louisiana State University © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Chapter 1 Introduction to Hazards Analysis Objectives The study of this chapter will enable you to: 1 Clarify why hazards analysis is so important in reducing losses from disasters 2 Compare and contrast hazards terminology 3 Explore... on information from a comprehensive hazards analysis Risk communication is thus a critical part of the hazards analysis process and a positive contribution to decision-making processes Through risk communication and public participation in the hazards analysis process, risk management and © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Introduction to Hazards Analysis   13 hazard mitigation strategies may... collaboration Communicating Risk from a Hazards Analysis The results of a hazards analysis are not just for planning and mitigation of hazards but should be shared with the public All communities have risks associated with natural hazards Hazards that typically cause minimal damage are usually accepted as inevitable, and little is done to reduce the risk Such hazards may be viewed as nuisances, rather... community from hazards Collective action may be advisable when low-income residents who may be renters or homeowners cannot take individual action Individual risk assessment, risk management, and impact assessment are all part of using information from a hazards analysis to protect individual citizens and their property Community Involvement in Hazards Analysis The approach used in a hazards analysis can... agency experts (outsiders) 3 Develop, through consensus-building, common objectives and priorities for the hazards analysis beneficial to both the experts and residents 4 Describe the hazards analysis process 5 Develop, through consensus-building, an agreed-upon strategy of how the results of the hazards analysis will be shared with the community, organizations, and public officials 6 Discuss residents’... (Mileti 19 99: 10 6 10 7) From this standpoint, hazards are viewed as “complex interactions between natural, social, and technological systems” (Cutter 19 94: xiv) Those interactions result in vulnerability (Heinz Center 2000) To assess those systems and their interactions, the analysis should include an examination of the following Human Social and Cultural Heritage Elements This part of the analysis. .. of clarifying the nature and impacts of hazards is the foundation of hazards analysis Over the past twenty-five years, we have seen escalating costs associated with the direct economic impacts of natural disasters Although the number of injuries and causalities has been dropping in recent years, property damage has increased dramatically (Abramovitz 20 01; Mileti 19 99) Mileti notes that disaster losses . 10 7 Key Terms 10 7 Introduction 10 8 e Process of Risk Analysis 10 8 What Is Risk? 10 9 Quantitative Analysis of Risk 11 0 Qualitative Representation of Consequence 11 1 Views of Risk 11 1 Using Historical. Visualization 10 0 Choropleth Maps 10 2 Conclusions 10 4 Discussion Questions 10 5 Applications 10 5 Web Sites 10 5 References 10 6 5 Risk Analysis: Assessing the Risks of Natural Hazards 10 7 Objectives 10 7 Key. Cataloging-in-Publication Data Pine, John C., 19 4 6- Natural hazards analysis : reducing the impact of disasters / John Pine. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 97 8 -1 -4 20 0-7 03 8-5 1.