MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS, HO CHI MINH CITY NGO HOANG THAO TRANG DETERMINANTS OF SECONDARY SCHOOL DROPOUT IN VIET NAM MASTER OF PUBLIC POLICY THESIS HO CHI MINH CITY - 2010 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS, HO CHI MINH CITY FULBRIGHT ECONOMICS TEACHING PROGRAME NGO HOANG THAO TRANG DETERMINANTS OF SECONDARY SCHOOL DROPOUT IN VIET NAM Public Policy Major Code: 603114 MASTER OF PUBLIC POLICY THESIS SUPERVISOR Dr. JONATHAN R. PINCUS HO CHI MINH CITY - 2010 CERTIFICATION I certify that the substance of the thesis has not already been submitted for any degree and is not being currently submitted for any other degrees. I certify that to the best of my knowledge any help received in preparing the thesis and all sources used have been acknowledged in the thesis. The study does not necessarily reflect the views of the Ho Chi Minh City Economics University or Fulbright Economics Teaching Program. Author Ngo Hoang Thao Trang ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my deep gratitude to my parents who always encourages me in my life and my studying. I would like to express my sincere appreciation to my supervisor, Dr. Jonathan R. Pincus, who has help me in performing the thesis. With rich knowledge, experience and enthusiasm, he has effectively contributed to my thesis. I am graceful to Dr. Nguyen Hoang Bao, Mr. Nguyen Xuan Lam for thoughtful and valuable comments on the early version of my work. I would like to thank all teachers in Fulbright Economics Teaching Program, who have retransmitted a lot of their knowledge and experience to me. Last but not least, I express my thanks to all of my friends who help and motivate me in performing the study. Ngo Hoang Thao Trang Ho Chi Minh City - May, 2010 ABSTRACT The study examines the effects of individual, household, community, and regional level on the dropout behavior of the child in secondary school in Vietnam by using the logistic regression model. The results of the empirical model confirmed age, working hours per year, education of parents, regions have large effects on the probability of leaving school. Meanwhile, household expenditure, the number of siblings, the proportion of pupils with reduced contributions, the pupil to teacher ratio, the pupil to classrooms ratio and the proportion of classrooms with good blackboards have small effects on the probability of leaving school. Therefore, an effective policy recommendation to reduce the dropout rate in secondary schools in Vietnam is to focus on investing more human capital in the present generation as well as supporting the important role of parent in education, reducing working hours per year of children and concentrating on the Mekong Delta and South East. Key words: School dropout; secondary school. ABBREVIATIONS GSO: General Statistic Office MOLISA: Ministry Of Labor –Invalids and Social Affairs VHLSS: Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION……………………………………….….…… 01 1.1 Problem statement…………………………………………………….….…… 01 1.2 The scope and the purpose of the study….…………………………… ……….02 1.3 Research questions of the study ……………………………………… ………03 1.4 The structure of the study………….………………………………….……… 03 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW…………………………… ………… 04 2.1 Concepts …………………………………………………………… …………04 2.2 Theoretical background ……………………………………………… ……… 05 2.2.1 Demand for education…………………………………………… ……… 05 2.2.2 Education production function………………………………… …………08 2.3 The framework of determinants of the dropout … …… ……………… ……08 2.4 Empirical studies of school leaving in Viet Nam……… …………… ……… 16 2.5 Conclusion …………………………………………………………….……… 19 CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW OF SECONDARY SCHOOL IN VIET NAM ….20 3.1 Schooling trends and dropouts from secondary school in Vietnam…………….20 3.2 Analyzing opportunities to access secondary school in Vietnam… ……… …23 3.3 Conclusion……………….…. ….……………………………………………….26 CHAPTER 4: METHODOLOGY AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK…………………………………………………… …………… 27 4.1 Data………… ………………………………………………………………… 27 4.2 Methodology……………………………………………………………… … 28 4.3 Empirical model…………………………………………………………………30 4.4 Variables in the empirical model………………… ………………… ………30 4.5 Conclusion …………………… ……………………………………………….36 CHAPTER 5: ANALYZING DETERMINANTS OF DROPOUT SECONDARY SCHOOL IN VIETNAM………………………………………………… ………37 5.1 Descriptive statistics………………… ……………………………………… 37 5.2 Regression results………………… ………………………………………… 43 5.3 Interpretation and discussion………………….……………… ……………….45 5.4 Scenario analysis………………………………………………………… ……50 5.5 Conclusion…………….… …………………………………………………… 56 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION………… ……………………………………… 57 6.1 Conclusion………… … ………………………………………………………57 6.2 Policy recommendations…………… …………………………………………58 6.3 Limitations of the study.…………………………………………………………60 REFERENCES APPENDIX LIST OF TABLES Table 5.1: Logistic regression of school dropout as a function of selected individual, household, school and demographic characteristics, and the children sample aged 11-18, VHLSS 2006……………………………………………………………… 43 Table 5.2: Marginal effects of the probability of dropping out…… ……………44 Table 5.3: Predicted dropout probabilty of children by education level of parents…………………………………………………………………… ……….52 Table 5.4: Predicted probability of dropping out by hours working per year…………………………………………………………………………………54 Table 5.5: Predicted probability of dropping out by region……………………… 55 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1: Number of pupils in secondary school in Vietnam from 1999- 2006… 21 Figure 3.2: Secondary education dropout and repeat rate, 1999 – 2004 …… ……22 Figure 3.3 Secondary education dropout and repeat quantities, 1994-2004….… 22 Figure 5.1: Dropout rate in Vietnam in 2006, by gender and by age…………… 38 Figure 5.2: Dropout rate in Vietnam in 2006, by hours working per year…………39 Figure 5.3: Dropout rate in Vietnam in 2006, by household expenditure…………39 Figure 5.4: Dropout rate in Vietnam in 2006, by parent educational level ………40 Figure 5.5: Dropout rate of Vietnam in 2006, by urban and regions………………42 Figure 5.6: Conditional effect plot of dropout probability according to educational level of parents…………………………………………………………………… 53 Figure 5.7: Conditional effect plot of dropout probability according to hours working per year………………………………………………………………… 54 Figure 5.8: Conditional effect plot of dropout probability by regions …… ……55 [...]... studies on dropouts in Vietnam emphasize strong effects of parental socioeconomic status, family wealth and region on educational opportunities of children in general education 20 CHAPTER 3 OVERVIEW OF SECONDARY EDUCATION IN VIETNAM Chapter 3 provides an overview of secondary education in Vietnam Firstly, it introduces schooling trends and dropouts in secondary school in Vietnam Then opportunities to... in Vietnam by using three Living Standard Surveys in Vietnam conducted in 1992-1993, 1997-1998 and 2001-2002 They found that the major determinants of school dropouts were child characteristics (such as age, working time), household background (such as parental education, household expenditure and cost of schooling) and geographical differences (such as urban vs rural, seven regions in Vietnam) Among... Viet Nam The theoretical and empirical studies reviewed above raise important issues Studies conducted in Vietnam emphasize strong effects of individual characteristics, household characteristics, school characteristics and regions on educational opportunities of children in general education Behrman and Knowles (1999) examined the role of household income contributing to child schooling in Vietnam... questions should be addressed: What are the factors theoretically affecting dropouts? To what extent do these factors explain dropouts at the secondary level in Vietnam? What should be done to reduce dropouts from secondary school in Vietnam? 1.4 The structure of the study The study consists of six chapters Following this introduction, the rest of the study is structured as follows Chapter 2 is devoted... concepts, discuss the theoretical background, and then lay out a framework for studying the determinant of school dropouts and review empirical studies concerning dropouts in Vietnam Chapter 3 is an overview of secondary schools in Vietnam The methodology and empirical model are presented in Chapter 4 It will describe the dataset, set up the methodology, explain the empirical model and describe the variables... finds that returns to the primary level are highest and returns to secondary level are the second highest (Psacharopoulos and Anthony, 2002) Vietnam has recorded achievements in education and developed a comprehensive education and training system Nevertheless, Vietnam is facing a crisis in terms of the quality of education at all levels and a crisis of dropouts of pupils For years from 2001 to 2005, more... Vietnam The contribution of the study is to find out which factors influence the dropout rate and to suggest policies to reduce it 1.2 The scope and the purpose of the study The study focuses on analyzing empirically factors that affect dropout behavior of children at the individual, household and school level The analysis is carried out on the case of dropouts from the secondary level in Vietnam in... study provides input for policy makers formulating policies to reduce the dropout rate at the secondary level in Vietnam 3 1.3 Research questions of the study The study attempts to answer the central question: What are the most prominent factors affecting secondary school dropouts in Vietnam? In order to answer the central question, some following sub questions should be addressed: What are the factors... secondary school in Vietnam Then opportunities to access secondary school are analyzed from different perspectives 3.1 Schooling trends and dropouts from secondary school in Vietnam The formal general educational system in Vietnam consists of three levels: primary, lower secondary and upper secondary Children are supposed to spend five years in primary school, beginning from the age of six to eleven... 00 7 20 01 -2 00 20 00 -2 00 19 99 1 8000000 7000000 6000000 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 0 pupils Secondary school enrollment in Vietnam from 1999 to 2006 Lower secondary Upper secondary Figure 3.1: Number of pupils in secondary school in Vietnam from 1999-2006 Source MOET (2006) From 1999 to 2004, the dropout rate in upper secondary school was higher than that from lower secondary school . Viet Nam …… …………… ……… 16 2.5 Conclusion …………………………………………………………….……… 19 CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW OF SECONDARY SCHOOL IN VIET NAM ….20 3.1 Schooling trends and dropouts from secondary school in Vietnam…………….20. Dropout rate in Vietnam in 2006, by gender and by age…………… 38 Figure 5.2: Dropout rate in Vietnam in 2006, by hours working per year…………39 Figure 5.3: Dropout rate in Vietnam in 2006, by household. household expenditure…………39 Figure 5.4: Dropout rate in Vietnam in 2006, by parent educational level ………40 Figure 5.5: Dropout rate of Vietnam in 2006, by urban and regions………………42 Figure 5.6: Conditional