Understanding Complex Systems Eve Mitleton-Kelly Editor Co-evolution of Intelligent Socio-technical Systems Modelling and Applications in Large Scale Emergency and Transport Domains www.it-ebooks.info Springer Complexity Springer Complexity is an interdisciplinary program publishing the best research and academic-level teaching on both fundamental and applied aspects of complex systems – cutting across all traditional disciplines of the natural and life sciences, engineering, economics, medicine, neuroscience, social and computer science. Complex Systems are systems that comprise many interacting parts with the ability to generate a new quality of macroscopic collective behavior the manifestations of which are the spontaneous formation of distinctive temporal, spatial or functional structures. Models of such systems can be successfully mapped onto quite diverse “real-life” situations like the climate, the coherent emission of light from lasers, chemical reaction-diffusion systems, biological cellular networks, the dynamics of stock markets and of the internet, earthquake statistics and prediction, freeway traffic, the human brain, or the formation of opinions in social systems, to name just some of the popular applications. Although their scope and methodologies overlap somewhat, one can distinguish the following main concepts and tools: self-organization, nonlinear dynamics, synergetics, turbulence, dynamical systems, catastrophes, instabilities, stochastic processes, chaos, graphs and networks, cellular automata, adaptive systems, genetic algorithms and computational intelligence. The three major book publication platforms of the Springer Complexity program are the monograph series “Understanding Complex Systems” focusing on the various applications of complexity, the “Springer Series in Synergetics”, which is devoted to the quantitative theoretical and methodological foundations, and the “SpringerBriefs in Complexity” which are concise and topical working reports, case-studies, surveys, essays and lecture notes of relevance to the field. In addition to the books in these two core series, the program also incorporates individual titles ranging from textbooks to major reference works. Editorial and Programme Advisory Board Henry Abarbanel, Institute for Nonlinear Science, University of California, San Diego, USA Dan Braha, New England Complex Systems Institute and University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, USA Pe ´ ter E ´ rdi, Center for Complex Systems Studies, Kalamazoo College, USA and Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, Hungary Karl Friston, Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London, London, UK Hermann Haken, Center of Synergetics, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany Viktor Jirsa, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universite ´ de la Me ´ diterrane ´ e, Marseille, France Janusz Kacprzyk, System Research, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland Kunihiko Kaneko, Research Center for Complex Systems Biology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan Scott Kelso, Center f or Complex Systems and B rain Sciences, Florida Atlantic Un iversit y, Boca Raton, U SA Markus Kirkilionis, Mathematics Institute and Centre for Complex Systems, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK J € urgen Kurths, Nonlinear Dynamics Group, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany Andrzej Nowak, Department of Psychology, Warsaw University, Poland Linda Reichl, Center for Complex Quantum Systems, University of Texas, Austin, USA Peter Schuster, Theoretical Chemistry and Structural Biology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Frank Schweitzer, System Design, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland Didier Sornette, Entrepreneurial Risk, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland Stefan Thurner, Section for Science of Complex Systems, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria www.it-ebooks.info Understanding Complex Systems Founding Editor: J.A. Scott Kelso Future scientific and technological developments in many fields will necessarily depend upon coming to grips with complex systems. Such systems are complex in both their composition – typically many different kinds of components interacting simultaneously and nonlinearly with each other and their environm ents on multiple levels – and in the rich diversity of behavior of which they are capable. The Springer Series in Understanding Complex Systems series (UCS) promotes new strategies and paradigms for understanding and realizing applications of complex systems research in a wide variety of fields and endeavors. UCS is explicitly transdisciplinary. It has three main goals: First, to elaborate the concepts, methods and tools of complex systems at all levels of description and in all scientific fields, especially newly emerging areas within the life, social, behavioral, economic, neuro- and cognitive sciences (and derivatives thereof); second, to encourage novel applications of these ideas in various fields of engineering and computation such as robotics, nano-technology and informatics; third, to provide a single forum within which commonalities and differences in the workings of complex systems may be discerned, hence leading to deeper insight and understanding. UCS will publish monographs, lecture notes and selected edited contributions aimed at communicating new finding s to a large multidisciplinary audience. For further volumes: http://www.springer.com/series/5394 www.it-ebooks.info Eve Mitleton-Kelly Editor Co-evolution of Intelligent Socio-technical Systems Modelling and Applications in Large Scale Emergency and Transport Domains www.it-ebooks.info Editor Eve Mitleton-Kelly The London School of Economics and Political Science, Complexity Research Group London United Kingdom ISSN 1860-0832 ISSN 1860-0840 (electronic) ISBN 978-3-642-36613-0 ISBN 978-3-642-36614-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-36614-7 Springer Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: 2013939627 © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 This work is subject to copyr ight. All rights ar e reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, rec itation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfil ms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, f or exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Permissions for use may be obtained through RightsLink at the Copyright Clearance Center. Violations are liable to prosec ution under the respective Copyright Law. The us e o f general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true a nd accurate at the date of publication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) www.it-ebooks.info Contents Part I Introduction and Literature Reviews Introduction: The SOCIONICAL FP7 Project and an Outline of the Volume 3 Eve Mitleton-Kelly and Paul Lukowicz Enhancing Crowd Evacuation and Traffic Management Through AmI Technologies: A Review of the Literature 19 Eve Mitleton-Kelly, Ivan Deschenaux, Christian Maag, Matthe w Fullerton, and Nihan Celikkaya The Concept of ‘Co-evolution’ and Its Application in the Social Sciences: A Review of the Literature 43 Eve Mitleton-Kelly and Laura K. Davy Part II Emergency Using Mobile Technology and a Participatory Sensing Approach for Crowd Monitoring and Management During Large-Scale Mass Gatherings 61 Martin Wirz, Eve Mitleton-Kelly, Tobias Franke, Vanessa Camilleri, Matthew Mont ebello, Daniel Roggen, Paul Lukowicz, and Gerhard Troster Agent-Based Modelling of Social Emotional Decision Making in Emergency Situations 79 Tibor Bosse, Mark Hoogendoorn, Michel Klein, Alexei Sharpanskykh, Jan Treur, C. Natalie van der Wal, and Arlette van Wissen Designing Complex Socio-Technical Systems: Empirically Grounded Simulations as Tools for Experience-Based Design Space Explorations 119 Markus Valle-Klann v www.it-ebooks.info Part III Transport Enhancing Future Mass ICT with Social Capabilities 141 Andreas Riener and Alois Ferscha Emerging Phenomena During Driving Interactions 185 Christian Maag Effective Assessment of AmI Intervention in Traffic Through Quantitative Measures 219 Richard Holzer, Matthew Fullerton, Nihan Celikkaya, Cristina Beltran Ruiz, and Hermann de Meer Part IV City Scale City Scale Evacuation: A High-Performance Multi-agent Simulation Framework 239 Kashif Zia and Alois Ferscha vi Contents www.it-ebooks.info Part I Introduction and Literature Reviews www.it-ebooks.info Introduction: The SOCIONICAL FP7 Project and an Outline of the Volume Eve Mitleton-Kelly and Paul Lukowicz 1 The SOCIONICAL FP7 Project SOCIONICAL is a socio-technical FP7 research project funded by the European Union with 14 Partners in ten different countries (www.socionical.eu); this volume captures some of the work that was done by the Consortium of Partners over the 4 year period, February 2009 to January 2013. The project looked at the contribution Ambient Intelligence (AmI) technology could make to society. AmI technology is omnipresent and non-intrusive; the devices are part of networks within smart environments, which are context aware, in the sense that, they are sensitive and responsive to the presence and behaviour of people. As AmI technology is deployed more and more widely, we need to develop a deeper understanding of the consequences it may have for society. SOCIONICAL is dedicated to fostering such an understanding through a study of the basic laws governing Ambient Intelligence based socio-technical systems. To this end it has developed modelling and simulation methods needed to describe, analyse and predict the behaviour of such systems and has applied them to two concrete scenarios: emergency response and traffic. 1. Emergency scenario. We considered an emergency evacuation situation where people are carrying sensor-enabled, communication devices. Typically this would be smart phones which can sense peoples’ location, motion, meaningful sounds (e.g., panic, structures collapsing) and possibly environmental parameters such as heat and light intensity. They can also communicate with each other, either E. Mitleton-Kelly (*) The London School of Economics and Political Science, Complexity Research Group, London, United Kingdom e-mail: e.mitleton-kelly@lse.ac.uk; E.Mitleton-Kelly@mitleton-kelly.org.uk P. Lukowicz Embedded Intelligence, German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI), Kaiserslautern, Germany E. Mitleton-Kelly (ed.), Co-evolution of Intelligent Socio-technical Systems, Understanding Complex Systems, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-36614-7_1, © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 3 www.it-ebooks.info through infrastructure (3G networks) or, if infrastructure is not available, in a direct peer-2-peer manner based, for example, on built-in Wi-Fi radios. Within the SOCIONICAL project we investigated how: (a) Global situation awareness can emerge from the individual sensor values being spread throughout the system, fused and collectively interpreted. This includes the question of how humans use the information provided by the technology and combine it with their own perception and the information received from other humans; (b) The evacuation process is influenced and coord inated through such global awareness combined with dedicated suggestions made by individual devices to their owners. This includes the question of trust that people put in technology, the interaction of technical advice with effects such as emergent leadership, herding and possibly panic and the influence of uncertain or wrong information being derived from sensors. Overall an evacuation aided by a distributed Ambient Intelligence system is a complex dynamic process that can lead to instabilities, oscillation s (e.g., when people are sent from one exit to another) and a range of emergent effects, from a smooth exit to a chaotic state. 2. Traffic scenario. The flow of traffic is very much determined by the way dri vers perceive, interpret and predict what other cars are doing and how they react to it. Often, traffic jams ari se because drivers see cars in front of them slowing down and adjust their speed accordingly. However, in most cases, they will slow down more than is necessary, which means that each following car becomes slower and slower; with a high enough car density, the traffic comes to a halt without any ‘objective’ reason, because of interaction effects. Similarly one aggressive, driver can trigger a cascade, tipping an entire traffic system from a state where people cooperate (making, for example, a merging traffic flow into a smooth process) to a state where everyone is aggressive (making efficient merging impossible). The question that we asked in the project was how could Ambient Intelligence based technology be used to mediate the interaction and information exchange between drivers, to prevent and diffuse such negative effects. To this end we looked at the confluence of two core technologies: (a) sensing the driver’s state and intensions, and (b) peer-2-peer communication betwee n cars (car-2-car systems). In addition to the two individual scenarios, the project also considered their confluence in a large scale emergency situation (e.g. flooding) involving both pedestrians and traffic. The aim of SOCIONICAL was not to develop concrete technical solutions that support the above scenarios (although some Partners are working on such technology in other projects) but: 4 E. Mitleton-Kelly and P. Lukowicz www.it-ebooks.info [...]... laws of complexity theory A review of AmI literature is at Chapter 2 “Enhancing Crowd Evacuation & Traffic Management, Through AmI Technologies – A Review of the Literature” and a review of the literature on co-evolution is at Chapter 3 “The Concept of Co-evolution and its Application in the Social Sciences – A Review of the Literature” Co-evolution is reciprocal influence which changes the behaviour of. .. emerging effects in a complex traffic situation) • Group driving (study of driver-to-driver effects in a group of drivers) • Braking car (study of safety effects of ADAS on a group of drivers) • Merging assistant (study of emotional effects of ADAS on a group of drivers) • Efficient Cruise Control (development of an innovative ADAS and study of effects on energy consumption) The braking convoy study highlighted... number of design options and the interdependency between the societal and the technical systems, resulting in a co-evolution of the two This is particularly true for the Ambient Intelligence technologies, which couple the two systems more intimately than before Chapter 6 proposes empirically grounded simulations as tools for the experience-based exploration of the design spaces of socio-technical systems. .. nearby The results of the model analysis show that the inclusion of contagion of belief, emotion, and intention states of the agents, results in a better reproduction of the real incident than non-inclusion 6 Chapter 6: Designing Complex Socio-technical Systems: Empirically Grounded Simulations as Tools for Experience-Based Design Space Explorations Designing complex socio-technical systems poses significant... generation socio-technical systems research is challenged by the complex interactions of technological progress and the social nature of individuals using and adopting technology For example, most recent advances in automotive technologies, together with the massive deployment of vehicles worldwide, indicate a different understanding of traffic, not as a collection of cars, but as a web of social connections... strong, conscious realisation of doing so This proposal is usually recognised as having provided the original impetus for the development of the fields of ubiquitous and pervasive computing The field of AmI emerged in turn by calling for an understanding of the total integration of intelligent devices in the physical environment [1,2] This can be interpreted as an evolution of Weiser’s initial vision:... properties of socio-technical systems Although the measures are defined analytically for micro-level models, the systems are usually too complex to evaluate the measures analytically Approximation methods are therefore used based on simulations, such as time series, which are used for the approximation of the measures for self-organizing properties The results of the evaluation can be used for the analysis of. .. and interdependence of systems within a city and a disaster often affects many related systems Although urban www.it-ebooks.info Introduction: The SOCIONICAL FP7 Project and an Outline of the Volume 17 areas are particularly vulnerable to disruptions from extreme events, the evaluation and management of disaster is the most underestimated issue in urban development, yet the threat of such disasters is... document is a review of the burgeoning literature on the utilisation of AmI (Ambient Intelligence) technology in two contexts: providing support and enhancing crowd evacuation during emergencies and improving traffic management The review opens with a brief introduction to the field of AmI, which emerged as a synthesis of several prior areas of research A list of key elements for a definition of AmI is established,... those of AmI, yet do not use E Mitleton-Kelly (*) • I Deschenaux The London School of Economics and Political Science, Complexity Research Group, London, United Kingdom e-mail: e.mitleton-kelly@lse.ac.uk C Maag ¨ University of Wurzburg (on traffic), Wurzburg, Germany M Fullerton • N Celikkaya Technical University of Munich (TUM) (on traffic), Munich, Germany E Mitleton-Kelly (ed.), Co-evolution of Intelligent . (study of driver-to-driver effects in a group of drivers) • Braking car (study of safety effects of ADAS on a group of drivers) • Merging assistant (study of emotional effects of ADAS on a group of. Review of the Literature” and a review of the literature on co-evolution is at Chapter 3 “The Concept of Co-evolution and its Application in the Social Sciences – A Review of the Literature”. Co-evolution. Intelligence (DFKI), Kaiserslautern, Germany E. Mitleton-Kelly (ed.), Co-evolution of Intelligent Socio-technical Systems, Understanding Complex Systems, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-36614-7_1, © Springer-Verlag