Gl bal WarminG Warmin Changing Ecosystems Gl bal Warmin WarminG Changing Ecosystems Effects of Global Warming Julie Kerr Casper, Ph.D CHANGING ECOSYSTEMS: Effects of Global Warming Copyright © 2010 by Julie Kerr Casper, Ph.D All rights reserved No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage or retrieval systems, without permission in writing from the publisher For information contact: Facts On File, Inc An imprint of Infobase Publishing 132 West 31st Street New York NY 10001 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Casper, Julie Kerr   Changing ecosystems : effects of global warming / Julie Kerr Casper    p cm.—(Global warming)   Includes bibliographical references and index   ISBN 978-0-8160-7263-7 (hardcover)   ISBN 978-1-4381-2739-2 (e-book)   Ecology—Popular works Biotic communities—Popular works Global warming—Popular works I Title   QH541.13.C37 2009   577.27'6—dc22 2009001411 Facts On File books are available at special discounts when purchased in bulk quantities for businesses, associations, institutions, or sales promotions Please call our Special Sales Department in New York at (212) 967-8800 or (800) 322-8755 You can find Facts On File on the World Wide Web at http://www.factsonfile.com Text design by Erik Lindstrom Illustrations by Sholto Ainslie, Richard Garratt, Accurate Art, and Lucidity Information Design Photo research by the author Composition by Hermitage Publishing Services Cover printed by Bang Printing, Brainerd, MN Book printed and bound by Bang Printing, Brainerd, MN Date Printed: November 17, 2009 Printed in the United States of America 10 This book is printed on acid-free paper Contents Preface Acknowledgments Introduction 1  Signs and Effects of Global Warming The Effects of Global Warming on Ecosystems Scientific Findings Observed and Expected Effects on Ecosystems Why a Few Degrees Matter Results of Global Warming on Ecosystems 2  Ecosystems, Adaptation, and Extinction Biodiversity and Ecosystems The Effects of Climate Change on Ecosystems Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Preservation Issues The Impacts of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change 3  Impacts to Forests Temperate Forests Birds, Gardens, and Global Warming Katrina and the Carbon Balance Boreal Forests Tropical Forests Adaptation viii xii xiv 10 14 15 21 21 35 41 44 46 49 50 60 63 65 67 75 4  Impacts to Rangelands, Grasslands, and Prairies The Importance of Grasslands Impacts of Global Warming Some Surprises Grasslands around the World Adaptation 5  Impacts on Polar Ecosystems Arctic Ecosystems Arctic Impacts The Bear Facts The Threatened and Endangered Species Act TESS Permafrost Shifting Vegetation Zones Antarctic Ecosystems Wildlife Adaptation 6  Impacts to Desert Ecosystems Desert Habitats Drought Threatened Deserts Desertification The Straight Facts about Desertification Heat Waves Wildfires Southern California on Fire 7  Impacts to Mountain Ecosystems Mountain Ecosystems in Danger Worldwide Lack of Water Storage Glaciers and Flooding A Species Threatened: The Rocky Mountain Pika Challenges in Alpine Regions Economic Challenges Case Study—White Mountains, New England Major Cities Target Global Warming 77 78 80 82 84 90 91 92 95 103 104 108 109 110 111 112 116 120 121 123 127 131 138 140 143 145 147 148 150 154 156 158 159 162 163 8  Impacts to Marine Ecosystems Temperate Marine Environments Tropical Marine Environments Freshwater Environments Why Estuaries Are Important to the Environment 9  Conclusions—Where to Go from Here Adaptation Conclusions Drawn/Lessons Learned Ways to Help Chronology Glossary Further Resources Index 169 169 184 191 192 198 199 200 203 204 210 216 247 Preface We not inherit the Earth from our ancestors— we borrow it from our children T his ancient Native American proverb and what it implies resonates today as it has become increasingly obvious that people’s actions and interactions with the environment affect not only living conditions now, but also those of many generations to follow Humans must address the effect they have on the Earth’s climate and how their choices today will have an impact on future generations Many years ago, Mark Twain joked that “Everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it.” That is not true anymore Humans are changing the world’s climate and with it the local, regional, and global weather Scientists tell us that “climate is what we expect, and weather is what we get.” Climate change occurs when that average weather shifts over the long term in a specific location, a region, or the entire planet Global warming and climate change are urgent topics They are discussed on the news, in conversations, and are even the subjects of horror movies How much is fact? What does global warming mean to individuals? What should it mean? The readers of this multivolume set—most of whom are today’s middle and high school students—will be tomorrow’s leaders and scientists Global warming and its threats are real As scientists unlock the mysteries of the past and analyze today’s activities, they warn that future viii Preface generations may be in jeopardy There is now overwhelming evidence that human activities are changing the world’s climate For thousands of years, the Earth’s atmosphere has changed very little; but today, there are problems in keeping the balance Greenhouse gases are being added to the atmosphere at an alarming rate Since the Industrial Revolution (late 18th, early 19th centuries), human activities from transportation, agriculture, fossil fuels, waste disposal and treatment, deforestation, power stations, land use, biomass burning, and industrial processes, among other things, have added to the concentrations of greenhouse gases These activities are changing the atmosphere more rapidly than humans have ever experienced before Some people think that warming the Earth’s atmosphere by a few degrees is harmless and could have no effect on them; but global warming is more than just a warming—or cooling—trend Global warming could have far-reaching and unpredictable environmental, social, and economic consequences The following demonstrates what a few degrees’ change in the temperature can The Earth experienced an ice age 13,000 years ago Global temperatures then warmed up 8.3°F (5°C) and melted the vast ice sheets that covered much of the North American continent Scientists today predict that average temperatures could rise 11.7°F (7°C) during this century alone What will happen to the remaining glaciers and ice caps? If the temperatures rise as leading scientists have predicted, less freshwater will be available—and already one-third of the world’s population (about billion people) suffer from a shortage of water Lack of water will keep farmers from growing food It will also permanently destroy sensitive fish and wildlife habitat As the ocean levels rise, coastal lands and islands will be flooded and destroyed Heat waves could kill tens of thousands of people With warmer temperatures, outbreaks of diseases will spread and intensify Plant pollen mold spores in the air will increase, affecting those with allergies An increase in severe weather could result in hurricanes similar or even stronger than Katrina in 2005, which destroyed large areas of the southeastern United States Higher temperatures will cause other areas to dry out and become tinder for larger and more devastating wildfires that threaten forests, wildlife, and homes If drought destroys the rain forests, the Earth’s ix 240 Changing Ecosystems Struck, Doug “NOAA Scientists Say Arctic Ice Is Melting Faster Than Expected.” Washington Post (9/7/07) Available online URL: http:// www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/06/ AR2007090602499.html Accessed June 29, 2009 This article offers evidence that predictions of future ice loss may be too conservative Sturm, Matthew, Donald K Perovich, and Mark C Serreze “Meltdown in the North.” Scientific American (October 2003) This article looks at the current melting in the Arctic regions, what it is doing to the ecosystems, and how that will affect the rest of the world Than, Ker “Animals and Plants Adapting to Climate Change.” LiveScience (6/21/05) Available online URL: http://www livescience.com/environment/050621_warming_list.html Accessed June 29, 2009 This looks at how some species in ecosystems have been able to adapt to changing systems ——— “How Global Warming Is Changing the Wild Kingdom.” LiveScience (6/21/05) Available online URL: http://www livescience.com/environment/050621_warming_changes.html Accessed June 29, 2009 This article looks at ecological issues among mammals, fish, insects, and other types of wildlife ——— “The 100-Year Forecast: Stronger Storms Ahead.” LiveScience (10/13/05) Available online URL: http://www.livescience.com/ environment/051013_stronger_storms.html Accessed June 29, 2009 This article presents the concept of an “enhanced” water cycle and more severe storms as a result of global warming in the future ——— “Polar Meltdown Near: Seas Could Rise Feet Per Century.” LiveScience (3/23/06) Available online URL: http://www livescience.com/environment/060323_ice_melt.html Accessed June 29, 2009 This article explores the implication of sea level rise as a result of the melting of polar ice caps ——— “Global Warming Weakens Pacific Trade Winds.” LiveScience (5/3/06) Available online URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/ id/12612965/ Accessed June 29, 2009 This article outlines why the trade winds are weakening as a result of global warming Further Resources Tibbetts, Graham “Global Warming Could Close Half of Alpine Ski Resorts by 2050.” Climate Ark (12/3/03) Available online URL: http://www.climateark.org/shared/reader/welcome aspx?linkid=27459 Accessed June 29, 2009 This presents the current situation facing ski resorts in Europe Tierney, John “In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm.” New York Times (1/1/08) Available online URL: http://www.nytimes com/2008/01/01/science/01tier.html Accessed June 29, 2009 This article presents an overview of why action needs to be taken immediately to deal with global warming on a global scale Time “Global Warming: The Causes, The Perils, the Politics—and What It Means for You.” (4/9/07) Available online URL: http:// www.alibris.com/search/books/qwork/10358045/used/Time:%20Gl obal%20Warming:% 20The%20Causes%20-%20The%20Perils%20%20The%20Solutions%20-%20The%20Actio ns:%2051%20Things% 20You%20Can%20Do Accessed June 29, 2009 This article suggests 51 ways to save the environment and curb global warming Trivedi, Bijal P “Mosquito Adapting to Global Warming, Study Finds.” National Geographic News (11/5/01) Available online URL: http:// news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/11/1105_Tvmozzie.html Accessed June 29, 2009 This article describes how mosquitoes are currently migrating and adapting to warmer temperatures ——— “South African Desert Becomes Global Warming Lab.” National Geographic News (8/4/03) Available online URL: http:// news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/08/0804_030804_karoo html Accessed June 29, 2009 This article looks specifically at one desert and analyzes the effects global warming is having now and outlines what is predicted for its future USA Today “Global Warming Threatens Alpine Ski Resorts.” (12/13/06) Available online URL: http://www.swissinfo.org/eng/ front/detail/Climate_change_threatens_ski_resorts_in_Europe.ht ml?siteSect=105&sid=7347238&cKey=1166083840000 Accessed June 29, 2009 Discusses current economic problems the ski resorts are facing in the European Alps due to global warming 241 242 Changing Ecosystems Vergano, Dan “Global Warming Stoked ’05 Hurricanes, Study Says.” USA Today (6/25/06) Available online URL: http://www.usatoday com/tech/science/2006-06-22-hurricane-blame_x.htm Accessed June 29, 2009 This article presents the reasons why climate scientists believe that global warming helped fuel 2005’s destructive hurricane season Wald, Matthew L “Cleaner Coal Is Attracting Some Doubts.” New York Times (2/21/07) Available online URL: http://www.nytimes com/2007/02/21/business/21coal.html Accessed June 29, 2009 This article explores the use of new technology called ‘gasification’ to operate new coal plants and whether it will be as environmentally friendly as originally thought ——— “Study Details How U.S Could Cut 28% of Greenhouse Gases” New York Times (11/30/07) Available online URL: http://www.sehn org/tccgreenhousegasses.html Accessed June 29, 2009 This article outlines how the United States could reduce the greenhouse gases it generates at a reasonable cost with only small technological innovations Walsh, Bryan “The Fire This Time.” Time (10/25/07) Available online URL: www.time.com/time/nation/article10,8599,1675380,00 html Accessed February 23, 2009 This article touches on wildfires in California and its connections to climate change Warburton, Louise “No Where Else to Go—Climate Changes and Parrots: Can they Adapt to Survive?” Bird Talk (January 2007) This article discusses the ecological impact global warming is having on the world’s bird population Williams, Gisela “Resorts Prepare for a Future Without Skis.” New York Times (12/2/07) Available online URL: http://travel.nytimes com/2007/12/02/travel/02skiglobal.html Accessed June 29, 2009 This article discusses the economic ramifications of global warming on the tourist industry Williams, Jack “Drilling Uncovers Past, Maybe the Future.” USA Today (1/23/99) This article reviews what climatologists have learned about climate change through the study of climate from the past via ice cores Further Resources ——— “Greenland’s Ice Tells of Past Climates, Maybe Ancient Life.” USA Today (8/30/04) This article reviews the importance of paleoclimatology Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution “Abandoned Walrus Calves Reported in the Arctic.” Oceanus Magazine (2/11/08) Looks at the dilemma walrus face due to the massive melting of Arctic sea ice and the predicament it puts their ultimate survival in Woollard, Rob “California Wildfires Force Mass Evacuations.” Discovery News (10/23/07) Available online URL: http://dsc.discovery com/news/2007/10/23/california-wildfire-print.html Accessed June 29, 2009 This article links the recent tragic wildfires of California and the American Southwest with drought and global warming Zimmer, Carl “Migration, Interrupted: Nature’s Rhythms at Risk.” New York Times (1/1/08) This article discusses migration corridors and how global warming is affecting them Web Sites Global Warming Climate Ark home page Sponsored by Ecological Internet Available online URL: www.climateark.org Accessed June 29, 2009 A Web site that promotes public policy that addresses global climate change through reduction in carbon and other emissions, energy conservation, alternative energy sources, and ending deforestation Climate Solutions home page Sponsored by Atmosphere Alliance and Energy Outreach Center Available online URL: www.climatesolutions.org Accessed June 30, 2009 A Web site that offers practical solutions to global warming Environmental Defense Fund home page Sponsored by Environmental Defense Fund Available online URL: www.environmentaldefense.org Accessed June 30, 2009 A Web site of an organization started by a handful of environmental scientists in 1967 that provides quality information and helpful resources on understanding global warming and other crucial environmental issues 243 244 Changing Ecosystems Environmental Protection Agency home page Sponsored by the U.S Environmental Protection Agency Available online URL: www epa.gov Accessed June 30, 2009 This Web site provides information about EPA’s efforts and programs to protect the environment It offers a wide array of information on global warming European Environment Agency home page Sponsored by the European Environment Agency in Copenhagen, Denmark Available online URL: www.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate Accessed June 30, 2009 This Web site posts their reports on topics such as air quality, ozone depletion, and climate change Global Warming: Focus on the Future home page Sponsored by EnviroLink Available online URL: www.enviroweb.org Accessed June 30, 2009 This Web site offers statistics and photography of global warming topics HotEarth.Net home page Sponsored by National Environmental Trust Available online URL: www.net.org/warming Accessed June 30, 2009 This Web site features informational articles on the causes of global warming, its harmful effects, and solutions that could stop it Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) home page Sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Available online URL: http://www.ipcc.ch/ Accessed June 30, 2009 This Web site offers current information on the science of global warming and recommendations on practical solutions and policy management NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies home page Sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Available online URL: www.giss.nasa.gov Accessed June 30, 2009 This Web site provides a large database of information, research, and other resources NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center home page Sponsored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Available online URL: www.ncdc.noaa.gov Accessed June 30, 2009 This Web site offers a multitude of resources and information on climate, climate change, global warming Further Resources Ozone Action home page Sponsored by the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments Available online URL: www.semcog.org/ OzoneAction.aspx Accessed June 30, 2009 This web site provides information on air quality by focusing on ozone, the atmosphere, environmental issues, and related health issues Scientific American home page Sponsored by Scientific American, Inc Available online URL: www.sciam.com Accessed June 30, 2009 This organization offers an online magazine and often presents articles concerning climate change and global warming Tyndall Centre at University of East Anglia home page Sponsored by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Available online URL: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk Accessed June 30, 2009 This Web site offers information on climate change and is considered one of the leaders in UK research on global warming Union of Concerned Scientists home page Sponsored by the Union of Concerned Scientists Available online URL: www.ucsusa.org Accessed June 30, 2009 This Web site offers quality resource sections on global warming and ozone depletion United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) home page Sponsored by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Available online URL: http:// unfccc.int/2860.php Accessed June 30, 2009 This Web site resents a spectrum on climate change information and policy U.S Global Change Research Program home page Sponsored by the U.S Office of Science and Technology Policy, the Office of Management and Budget, and the Council on Environmental Quality Available online URL: www.usgcrp.gov Accessed June 30, 2009 This Web site provides information on the current research activities of national and international science programs that focus on global monitoring of climate and ecosystem issues World Wildlife Foundation Climate Change Campaign home page Sponsored by the World Wildlife Fund Available online URL: www.worldwildlife.org/climate/ Accessed June 30, 2009 This Web site contains information on what various countries are doing, and not doing, to deal with global warming 245 246 Changing Ecosystems Greenhouse Gas Emissions Energy Information Administration home page Sponsored by the U.S Department of Energy Available online URL: www.eia.doe gov/environment.html Accessed June 30, 2009 This Web site lists official environmental energy-related emissions data and environmental analyses from the U.S government This site contains U.S carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions data and other greenhouse reports World Resources Institute—Climate, Energy & Transport homepage Sponsored by the World Resources Institute Available online URL: www.wri.org/climate/publications.cfm Accessed June 30, 2009 This Web site offers a collection of reports on global technology deployment to stabilize emissions, agriculture, and greenhouse gas mitigation, climate science discoveries, and renewable energy Index Italic page numbers indicate illustrations or maps Page numbers followed by c denote entries in the chronology A Abisko, Sweden 100 acidification See ocean acidification adaptation forest ecosystems 66, 75–76 future issues 199–200 grassland ecosystems 31, 90 marine ecosystems 196–197 polar ecosystems 116–119 tundra loss 111 Africa 128 Agapornia nigrigenis 72–73 Agrawala, Shardur 59, 161 agriculture 67, 70, 89–90, 124 Alaska 13, 92, 100, 150 albedo 11 algae 12, 187–188, 196 algae blooms 176–177 Allen, Myles 40 alpine zones 158–159 Amazon rain forest 68–69, 140 Antarctic ecosystems 111–116, 114 Antarctic Ice Sheet 14–15, 205c, 207c Antarctic Peninsula 111 Antarctic sea ice 115 anthropogenic climate change 3, 8, 101, 181 Appalachian Range 56 aquaculture 175–176 aquatic environments See marine ecosystems Arctic ecosystems 92–111 global warming impact 95–109 permafrost 109–110 shifting vegetation zones 110–111 wildlife 100–109, 102, 107 Arctic ice cap 93, 111 Arctic ice pack 106 Arctic lakes/ponds 95 Arctic sea ice 97 in Arctic ecosystems 92–95 as early warning system for global warming 97–98 polar bears and 103–104 retreat of 8–9, 92–94 seals and 107–108 artificial snow 59–60 Ashjian, Carin 106 Asian rangelands 86–87 Asian steppes 31 Asner, Greg 70 Atelopus varius 18 Australia 14, 73, 112–114, 125, 153–154, 188 Austria 162 Azeez Abdul Hakeem, Abdul 189–190 B Bakum, Andrew 175 Bali Road Map 183 Beardall, John 184 Beckett, Margaret 40 Belize 190 Bengal tiger 25, 87 Beniston, Martin 154–155 Bhutan 157 biodiversity 21–35, 24–26, 28, 56–57, 133–135, 144 biofuels, seaweed as 184 birds 30, 60–61, 95, 100, 172, 193 black-cheeked lovebird 72–73 Blair, Tony 40 bleaching (coral) 3, 12, 186, 190 blue-green algae 196 boreal forests 30, 50, 55, 65–67, 66, 98, 100 Botswana 128 Boyes, Steve 74 Bradshaw, William 62 Brigham-Grette, Julie 111 Brinson, Mark 196 Bromus tectorum See cheatgrass brook trout 166 budgies 73, 74 buffer zones 41 Bufo periglenes 18 Burki, Rolf 162 burrowing parrot 73–74 Bush, George W 190, 208c 247 Changing Ecosystems 248 C Caldeira, Ken 64 California 12, 145–146, 153, 175 Cameron, Alison 17 camping 167 campos 31 Canada 13, 65–67, 100 Canadian climate model 37, 38 cannibalism, by polar bears 105–106 canopies 32 carbon balance, Hurricane Katrina and 63–64 carbon cycle 50 carbon dioxide (CO2) 1800–1870 levels 204c 1950–1970 levels 205c 2003 levels 208c and anthropogenic climate change and Arctic ice melt 96 and climate modeling 38 and coral reefs 187 and deforestation 70 and degraded rangelands 87 and desert ecosystems 143–144 and desertification 135–136 and Douglas fir habitat 34, 35 from drying of Arctic wetlands 95 and forest ecosystems 54 and grasslands soil 80 ice core studies 206c increase since beginning of Industrial Revolution and land-use change 46, 48 and mountain ecosystems 164 and near-term global warming projections need to stabilize levels 40–41 and ocean acidification 181–182 and rain forest loss 140 and Rocky Mountain pika 157 from soil invertebrates/microbes 116 and thermohaline circulation 180, 181 and tipping point 40 carbon exchange 115 carbon loss 85 carbon sequestration 50–52, 63, 80, 133 carbon sinks forests 51–52 grasslands 78–80 oceans 179, 181 rain forest 32–33 rangelands 86–87 seaweed 183–184 soil 116 carp 194 Chambers, Jeffrey Q 63 cheatgrass 79, 133 Chicago heat waves (1990s) 142 China 13, 57, 155, 208c Chung Ik-Kyo 183, 184 Ciais, Philippe 85 CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora) 105 cities See urban entries Clark, Deborah 140 climate models 36–38 forest ecosystems 54, 64, 201 for global warming projections 7–8, 16, 198 sea ice loss and 101 climate systems 46 climate zones 6–7, 25, 25 climatologists 7, 198 CO2 See carbon dioxide (CO2) coastal regions 170–171, 177–178 Codina, Roman 59 Colorado 163–164 condensed tannins 62–64 Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) 105 Cook, T 176 cool coastal deserts 122 Cooper, Lee W 107 coral reef(s) 184–191, 185, 187 bleaching 3, 12, 186, 190 global warming stress 188–190 loss of symbiotic algae 12 in marine ecosystems 33 and ocean acidification 182–183 core habitat areas 41 Corell, Robert 101 Crick, Humphrey 60–61 crustose coralline algae 187–188 Cyanoliseus patagonus 73–74 D Day, John, Jr 196 Dearing, Denise 156, 157 deforestation 32–33, 46, 50, 68–71, 72, 134, 205c Demment, Montague 86–87 Denver, Colorado 163 Dermo disease 176 Index desert ecosystems 29, 120–140, 122, 130 desertification 131–140, 132 drought 123–126 habitats 121–123 threats from global warming 127–131 desertification 82, 89, 127, 131–140, 132 development 177–178 DGVM (Dynamic Global Vegetation Model) 36 Discovery News 106 disease 12, 56, 176–177 Douglas fir 34, 35 drought 86, 126, 205c, 207c–208c climate change and 11–12 desert ecosystem 123–126 forest ecosystem 61, 67, 73–74 grasslands 85 rain forest 69–70 dune fields 128 Dune Mobility Index 128 Duran, Benita 164 dust bowl 85, 131, 204c Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) 36 E Easterling, D R 13 Eastern Tropical Pacific Seascape 191 economic issues coral reef loss 185 mountain ecosystems 159–162, 160, 161, 164–168 tropical forests 67 ecosystem(s) 26–28 See also specific systems, e.g.: desert ecosystems biodiversity and 21–35, 24–26, 28 classification of 26 global warming effects 2–7, 4, 6, 15–20, 35–41 observed/expected effects 10–20 preservation 44–45 electric reef 189–190 El Niño 4, 70, 143, 144, 189 Emanuel, Kerry A 178 emperor penguins 114–115 endangered species 44, 102, 104–106, 156–157 Endangered Species Act (ESA) 102, 104–105 energy balance 149 enteric fermentation 62 ephemerals 122 estuaries 33, 35, 192–193, 195 249 Europe alpine vegetation migration 158–159 heat wave (2003) 142, 208c skiing and climate change 58–59 thermohaline circulation and 96, 180, 181 European Alps 160 eutrophication 176–177 evaporation 12 evapotranspiration 54, 64, 84 Everest, Mount 155, 156 evolution 199 extinctions 16–20, 43–44 in aquatic ecosystems 196 in desert ecosystems 129 of forest ecosystem 55 in freshwater ecosystems 194 and sea-level rise 174 extinct species (defined) 44 extreme weather events 13–14 F feedback 111, 118 Field, Christopher 84 fire See forest fires; wildfires fire danger index 154 fir trees 168 fish 166, 172, 174–175, 193–196 flooding 154–158, 207c Florida 44, 99 food, drought and 124 food chain 18, 23, 62, 101 food web 24, 158 forbs 78 forest ecosystems 49–76 adaptation strategies 75–76 boreal forests 30, 65–67, 66 carbon sequestration 51–52 climate change impacts 49–76 Douglas fir and CO2 34, 35 market-based v environment-based values 53, 54 migration in mountains 164–165 migration into tundra 110 recent developments 57–58, 59 reforestation and global warming 64 temperate forests 31–32, 50–64, 51 tourism/recreation and 58–61 tropical forests 32–33, 67–74, 68, 69, 71–74 vegetation migration/deforestation 67–74, 68, 72 forest fires 57–58, 98, 100, 152 Changing Ecosystems 250 Forpus passerinus 73 Fort Collins, Colorado 163–164 fossil fuels 8, 48, 208c Fox News 125 France 155 freshwater 94, 96, 180 freshwater environments 25, 191–197 Fujita, Rod 184–187 future issues 45, 198–203 G Gaffenard, D J 142 gardens 61 Geljen Sherpa, Pemba 157–158 general circulation models (GCMs) 37, 53–54, 80–81, 180, 198 genetic diversity 22 Gent, Peter Robert 180–181 Germany 162 glacial melt/retreat Antarctic 111–112 Arctic 92, 94 and desert temperatures 127 mountain ecosystems 149, 154–158 polar ecosystems 11 Glacier Bay 92–93 Glacier National Park 3, 149 global cooling 64 global mean temperature 141, 142 Glue, David 60 golden-shouldered parrot 73 golden toad 18 Gordon, Susie 163–164 Gore, Al 208c, 209c Grabherr, Georg 158, 159 grassland ecosystems 77–90, 86 adaptation issues 90 global warming impact 80–84 importance of 78–80 savannas 32, 68–69 soil moisture 82–84 temperate 31 wildlife 82, 83, 87–89 grazing 134 See also overgrazing Great Barrier Reef 188 Great Basin 139 Great Britain 60–61 great ocean conveyor belt 95–96, 178–181, 179 Great Plains 85, 131 GreenGrass project 84–85 greenhouse effect 85, 204c–206c greenhouse gases 13, 96 See also carbon dioxide; methane Greenland 99, 206c Greenland Ice Sheet 14–15, 40, 98 green-rumpled parrotlets 73 grizzly bears 158 Groisman, P Y 13 growing seasons 13 Gulf of Mexico 173 Gulf Stream 95–96 H habitats 20, 22–26, 118–119, 185 Hadley climate model 36–38 Hamilton, Healy 45 Hannah, Lee 16 Hansen, James hardwoods 164, 168 harlequin frog 18 Hawaiian Islands 190–191 Hayhoe, Katherine 62 Healy, John 164 Heard Island glacier 111 heat waves 85, 140–143, 208c Hickenlooper, John 163 hiking 167 Hold, Sidney 112 hot and dry deserts 121–122 Houde, Edward 193 Hu, Shuijin 79–80 Hudson Bay 104 human activity 141, 181, 182, 196–197 See also anthropogenic climate change Hurricane Katrina 63–64, 208c hurricanes 63–64, 178, 208c hydrologic cycle 12, 13, 123 I Iacozza, John 104 ice age 14 ice-related changes See Antarctic sea ice; Arctic sea ice Industrial Revolution 5, 182 insects 30, 61, 67, 98, 100, 150 insurance 177–178 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2–3, 206c interrupted migration 41 invasive species 79, 81, 90, 133, 144 isolated forest communities 55 IUCN Red List of Endangered Species 74 Ives, Jack 148, 149 Index J Janghu Sherpa, Tashi 155–156 Japan 14 Jardine, Kevin 65, 105 Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve 80 K Kalahari 128 Kansas 94 Karl, T R 13 Karoly, David 125 Karoo, South Africa 129 Katrina, Hurricane 63–64, 208c Kattenberg, A 142 Kempthorne, Dirk 102 Kenai Peninsula, Alaska 100 Kilimanjaro, Mount 3, 149 Kimball, Dan 45 King, Sir David 40 Klotzback, Philip J 178 Knight, R W 13 krill 112, 115 Kuffner, Ilsa B 187–188 Kyoto Protocol 112, 207c, 208c L Ladle, Richard J 17–18 Lancaster, Nicholas 128–129 land-cover change 46–48, 47 Landsat satellite 188 landslides 110 land-use change 25, 32–33, 46–48, 47, 50 La Niña 73 largemouth bass 194 Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) 70 Larsen B Ice Shelf 112 Lee Jae-young 183 Leung, L Ruby 150, 151 livestock 62–64, 81 logging 67, 70 Lunn, Nicholas J 104 Lynas, Mark 124 M Malcolm, Jay R 199 Maldives 189–190 mangroves 45, 192 maple sugar/syrup industry 165, 167 Marengo, José Antonio 68, 69 marine ecosystems 33, 35, 169–197 algae blooms and disease 176–177 251 aquaculture 175–176 coastal regions 170–171 coral reefs 184–191, 185, 187 freshwater 191–197 human adaptation 196–197 ocean acidification 181–183 open oceans 178–184 protection/conservation 190–191 sea-level rise 173–174 seaweed as carbon sink 183–184 temperate 169–184 temperature extremes 171–173 thermohaline circulation 178–181, 179 tropical environments 184–191 wind circulation 174–175 market value, environmental value v 53, 54 Markgraf, Vera 159 marshes 174, 192–193 Mastny, Lisa 149 McCormick, Steve 190–191 McField, Melanie 190 McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica 115 Melopsittacus undulates 73 methane 62–64, 85, 110 microbes 80, 116 microclimates 134 Midgley, Guy 16, 129, 131 migration and adaptation 13 of alpine vegetation 158–159 of boreal forest 65, 67 of grasslands 89–90 interrupted 41 patterns 4–5 polar bears 101 and sea-level rise 173 of temperate forests 56 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 137 minke whales 112 moisture, soil 82–84 Molina, Bruce 92–93 mosquitoes 61–62, 100 mountain ecosystems 33, 147–168, 148, 152 alpine regions 158–159 danger from global warming 148–150 economic challenges 159–162, 160, 161, 164–168 glaciers and flooding 154–158 water storage 150–154 White Mountains case study 162, 164–168 wildlife 151, 156–157 Changing Ecosystems 252 mountain hemlock 158 Moyers, Bill 49 N Namibia 128 Nelson, Frederick 110 nematodes 115, 116 Neophema chysogaster 73 Nepal 157, 158 Nepstad, Dan 69–70 nested ecosystem 28, 28 Nest Record Scheme 60 New Hampshire 165–166 New Zealand 62, 162, 164–168 nighttime temperatures 11–12, 81, 167 nitrogen 80, 81, 165 nitrous oxides 85 Nixon, Richard M 104 Northwest Passage Nowak, Bob 144 nutrient cycling 81 nutrient runoff 193 Nuttall, Nick 127 O ocean acidification 181–183, 187–188 ocean circulation 178–181, 179 ocean warming 10 open oceans 178–184 orange-bellied parrot 73 Orlando, Brett 129 overgrazing 78, 134 Overland, James 93 Overpeck, Jonathan 94 oxygen 172, 176, 180, 196 oysters 176 ozone 54 P Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) 124 pampas 31 parrots 72–74 Payne, Roger 155 Pendleton, Andrew 123 penguins 114, 114–115 Perkinsus marinus 176 permafrost 3–4, 95, 109–110 Pew Center on Global Climate Change 170–171 pH, of ocean 181, 182 photosynthesis 33, 50 phytoplankton 33, 175 pika 156–158 Pinatubo, Mount 98 pine beetles 150 pine trees 158, 168 Pitelka, Louis F 199 Poff, N LeRoy 194, 196 polar bears 11, 101–106, 102 polar deserts 110, 122 polar ecosystems 29–30, 91–119 adaptation issues 116–119 Antarctic 111–116 Arctic 92–111 expected climate change in 11 permafrost 3–4, 95, 109–110 wind circulation 174 pollution/pollutants 192, 204c population growth 151 Portland, Oregon 164 prairies See grassland ecosystems protozoa 176 proxies 141 Psephotus chrysopterygius 73 purple mountain saxifrage 159 Puschendorf, Robert 17 Q Québec, Canada 165 R Rader, Doug 186 Ragen, Tim 106 rainfall 14, 79, 81, 120 Rainier, Mount 158 rangelands 86–89, 127 rare species (defined) 43 recreation See tourism/recreation red brome 144 red oak 168 reef(s) See coral reef(s) reflectivity 111 See also albedo reforestation 64 regional climate systems 46 Reynolds, Anna 125 ringed seals 103 Rintoul, Steve 111–112 Rocky Mountain pika 156–157 Rocky Mountains 58, 150 rodents 60 Ross, R J 142 Rudd, Kevin 154 runoff 57–58, 193 Rutherford, Edward 193 Index S Sabine, Christopher L 181 Sahel 137–139 salinity levels 25, 127, 173, 192 salmon 194 San Diego, California 145 satellites 135 savanna ecosystem 32, 68–69 Scandinavia 57 Scientific Committees (Australia) 112–114 sea ice See Antarctic sea ice; Arctic sea ice sea-level rise 99 during 20th century 170 Greenland Ice Sheet and 14–15, 40, 98 and habitat loss 25 and low-lying areas and marine ecosystems 173–174 and polar ice melt 94, 98, 111–112, 208c projections for 21st century 14–15 seals 101, 107, 107–108 Seattle, Washington 164 seaweed, as carbon sink 183–184 semiarid deserts 122 sequestration See carbon sequestration shellfish 193 Siegel, Kassie 102, 106 Simms, Andrew 123–124 simplification 55 simulations 36 skiing 58–60, 161, 166 Slupetzky, Heinz 155 Smith, Laurence 95 Smith, Stan 143–144 Smol, John 95 snow, artificial 59–60 snowfall 13, 150, 151 snowpack 150, 151, 154 Snowy Mountains, Australia 149–150 soil(s) as carbon sink 116 coastal desert 122 desert 29, 121 grassland 78–80 mountain 165 and sugar maples 167 soil, frozen 110 See also permafrost soil carbon 81 soil moisture 82–84 solar power, from deserts 129 Solomon, A 65 Soussana, Jean-Franỗois 84 South Africa 129, 134 253 Southern California fires 145 species diversity 22 spring 13, 18–19 spruce bark beetles 100 spruce trees 168 Stanley, Bill 45 steppes 31 Stirling, Ian 104 Stocker, Thomas F 180 stress 129 Stroeve, Julienne 93 subsoil 134 sugar maples 165, 167 surface currents 174 Sweden 100 Swetnam, Tom 58 Switzerland 162 symbiotic algae 12 T taiga See boreal forests Tandong, Yao 155 tannins, condensed 62–64 Tavendale, Michael 63 temperate forest ecosystems 31–32, 50–64, 51, 54, 57 temperate grassland ecosystems 31, 78–79 temperate marine environments 169–184 temperature(s) 8–10, 207c See also heat waves Arctic 11, 92, 96–97 boreal forest 30, 66–67 and coral reefs 186 desert 29 forests (U.S and Canada) 56 freshwater 195 grasslands 81 IPCC projections 5–6 marine environments 171–173, 186 mountain 164, 166 rain forest 74 significance of slight changes 14 and ski season 166 Sydney, Australia 153 tropical forest 68–69 TESS (Threatened and Endangered Species System) 108–109 thermal expansion of seawater 98 thermohaline circulation 95–96, 178–181, 179 Thomas, Chris 15–17 Thomas, David 128 Changing Ecosystems 254 Threatened and Endangered Species Act 104–105 Threatened and Endangered Species System (TESS) 108–109 threatened species (defined) 43 timber industry 167–168 tipping point 40 Toepfer, Klaus 162 topsoil loss 134 tourism/recreation 58–61, 159–162, 160, 161, 164–168, 193 tropical grassland ecosystems 79 tropical marine environments 3, 184–191, 185–187 tropical rain forest ecosystems 32–33, 51, 64, 67–74, 68, 69, 71–74, 140 tropical storms 178 trout 166, 194 tundra 29–30, 65, 110–111 U upwelling 174–175, 180 urban areas 46, 140–141, 163–164 urban heat island effect 141 urbanization 174, 193 V valley glaciers 92 value, of forest ecosystems 53, 54 vegetation alpine 158–159 desert 129, 131 desertification 133, 134 estuarine 192–193 migration 68–71 modeling of evolution/adaptation 37 tundra 30, 111 vegetation zones 110–111 VINCERA 36 Virginia, Ross 116 vulnerable species (defined) 43 W Wagner, Fred 157 Wall, Diana 115, 116 walrus 11, 106–107 Ward Hunt Ice Shelf 92 water in Arctic ecosystems 92–95 in boreal forests 30 in mountain ecosystems 150–154 and rising desert temperatures 127 storage by cacti 121–122 water shortages 148–149, 155 weather patterns Weimerskirch, Henri 115 West, Chris 61 Westerling, Anthony 58, 154 West Nile virus 100 wetland ecosystems 35, 173–174, 191, 194–196 whales 112 wheat 94 White Mountains 162, 164–168 wildfires 12, 31, 57–58, 59, 67, 143–146, 152–154 wildlife Antarctic 112–116, 114 Arctic 100–109, 102, 107 desert 122–123 disruption of breeding/migration cycles 42–43 estuarine 195 forest 30, 32, 56, 57, 62–64, 66 freshwater 194–196 grassland 31, 82, 83, 87–89 marine 186 mountain 33, 151 rain forest 69, 72–74, 73, 74 savanna 32 tropical rain forest 32 tundra 30 vulnerability to global warming 41–43, 42 wildlife corridors 41, 42 Williams, Deborah 106 wind circulation 174–175 winter temperatures 96–97 World Cup ski circuit 161 Wyeomyia smithii 61–62 Y Yellowstone National Park wildfire 58, 59 Yukon Territory 100 Z Zavaleta, Erika 82–84 Zhang, Tingjun 110 zooplankton 175 zooxanthellae 186 ...Gl bal WarminG Warmin Changing Ecosystems Gl bal Warmin WarminG Changing Ecosystems Effects of Global Warming Julie Kerr Casper, Ph.D CHANGING ECOSYSTEMS: Effects of Global Warming Copyright... parts of the world will be like in the face of global warming, it is first necessary to understand the concept of ecosystems and the related signs and effects of global warming The Effects of Global. .. Effects on Ecosystems Why a Few Degrees Matter Results of Global Warming on Ecosystems 2  Ecosystems, Adaptation, and Extinction Biodiversity and Ecosystems The Effects of Climate Change on Ecosystems