Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities A SYNTHESIS REPORT Japan International Cooperation Agency Contact: Megumi Muto, Muto.Megumi@jica.go.jp Asian Development Bank Contact: Jay Roop, jroop@adb.org THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20344 Telephone: 202.473.1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: feedback@worldbank.org Contacts: Poonam Pillai, ppillai@worldbank.org Jan Bojo, jbojo@worldbank.org Maria Sarraf and Susmita Dasgupta, msarraf@worldbank.org, sdasgupta@worldbank.org [...]... assessing climate risks and identifying adaptation options in other coastal areas Approach and Methodology The approach to assessing climate risks and impacts consists of the following sequential steps: (1) determining climate variables at the level of the city/watershed through downscaling techniques; (2) estimating impacts and vulnerability through hydrometeorological modeling, scenario analysis, and. .. important than climate risks in contributing to urban flooding In Bangkok for instance, there is nearly a two-fold increase in damage costs between 2008 and 2050 due to land subsidence Further, almost 70 percent of the increase in flooding costs in 2050 in the city is due to land subsidence While data for land subsidence were not available for Manila and HCMC and this issue was not considered in the hydrological... governmental institutions to adapt to climate change Among other things, this involves strengthening the capacity to prioritize different adaptation options, improving coordination between various urban sector agencies and sector plans, and incorporating climate change considerations into the earliest stages of decision making Targeted, city-specific solutions combining infrastructure investments, zoning, and. .. causing immense damage to housing and infrastructure and displacing around 280,000–300,000 people.8 All of this highlights the need to better understand and prepare for such climate risks and incorporate appropriate adaptation measures into urban planning While there is a growing literature on cities and climate change, as yet there is limited research on systematically assessing climate- related risks. .. lessons and presents conclusions 10 For a broader set of GIS maps, please refer to city-specific reports 4  |  Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities: A Synthesis Report 2 Methodologies for Downscaling, Hydrological Mapping, and Assessing Damage Costs I n order to assess the impact of climate change in terms of increased flooding in 2050 in each of the coastal cities, three main methodological... Classify buildings into commercial, industrial, residential or other sub-classifications 3 Identify assets and inventories in buildings based on surveys or on the type of building buildings The steps used in estimating damage costs in the case of Bangkok and Manila are identified in Figure 2.4 Identifying, classifying, and valuing damage to buildings The Bangkok and Manila case studies used information... could go a long way in helping coastal megacities to adapt to current and future climate risks Executive Summary   |  xvii 1 Introduction Background and Rationale As recent weather events have illustrated, coastal areas in both developing and more industrialized economies face a range of risks related to climate change (IPCC 2007a) Anticipated risks include an accelerated rise in sea level of up to... evidence-based information to support urban policy and planning as these issues are debated at the local, national, and global levels Objective The main objective of this report is to strengthen our understanding of climate- related risks and impacts in coastal megacities in developing countries xii  |  using case studies of three cities that are different in their climate, hydrological, and socioeconomic... climate change The actual costs of a 1 -in- 30-year flood—including costs resulting from both climate change and land subsidence—are close to $4.6 billion in 2050 In Manila, a similar 1 -in- 30-year flood can lead to costs of flooding ranging from PHP 40 billion ($0.9 billion)—given current flood control infrastructure and climate conditions—to PHP 70 billion ($1.5 billion) with similar Climate Risks and. .. component of flood-related costs, at least in Bangkok and Manila Vulnerability mapping, land use planning and zoning could be used to restrict future development in hazardous locations, ultimately retiring key infrastructure and vulnerable buildings in these areas Similarly, building codes aimed at flood-proofing buildings (including the lowest habitable elevation in vulnerable areas) could dramatically . Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities A SYNTHESIS REPORT Japan International Cooperation. preliminary xiv | Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities: A Synthesis Report City, and San Juan Mandaluyong City are likely to face serious risks of flooding. Increase in population. assessing climate risks and identifying adaptation options in other coastal areas. APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY The approach to assessing climate risks and im- pacts consists of the following sequential