Rubber in Laos Detection of actual and assessment of potential plantations in Lao PDR using GIS and remote sensing technologies Diplomarbeit der Philosophisch-naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Bern vorgelegt von: Kaspar Hurni 2008 Leiter der Arbeit: Prof Dr Urs Wiesmann Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern ii Rubber in Laos Detection of actual and assessment of potential plantations in Lao PDR using GIS and remote sensing technologies Diplomarbeit der Philosophisch-naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Bern vorgelegt von Kaspar Hurni 2008 Leiter der Arbeit: Prof Dr Urs Wiesmann Co-Leiter: Dr Andreas Heinimann Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern ii Preface During my studies I had the chance to work as a tutorial assistant within the NCCR North-South at the Centre for Development and Environment of the Institute of Geography at the University of Bern It was a huge opportunity to gain insight into the research context of the NCCR North-South and obtain some practical experience Most of my knowledge and skills regarding GIS and Remote Sensing technologies were attained during this employment Besides the administrative work I could also participate in more research-related tasks where I got in touch for the first time (although only digitally) with Laos I performed a classification of satellite imagery in order to map land cover changes, which was part of a study assessing land cover changes in the lower Mekong region When later on the decision on the topic of my diploma thesis came closer, I opted for a work in context with Laos, as it was a chance to visit a country for two months that I previously only knew through satellite imagery Besides the opportunity to travel to Laos, the motivation for this thesis is mainly based on giving a contribution to the current research on rubber in Laos Considering the amount of newly established rubber plantations in the recent years, research on the topic is indispensable regarding decision-making and elaboration of development strategies Using my GIS and Remote Sensing competence and my fascination for the possibilities offered by spatial data and modelling approaches, I hope being able to add to the current research, or at least provide some thought-provoking impulses Besides the institutional support acknowledged below many people contributed to this study in various ways First I would like to thank Professor Urs Wiesmann, the leader of the thesis His professorship at the University of Bern and his functions within the CDE and the NCCR North-South provided the background for various studies and research projects in Southeast Asia and thus enabled my research in Laos My thanks go also to Dr Andreas Heinimann, the co-leader of my thesis, who was, already during my time as tutorial assistant, my mentor regarding GIS and Remote Sensing technologies While working on the thesis his inputs on various levels and the motivational words were indispensable I am also very thankful for the support I received from Dr Peter Messerli He works in the research project on “Contextuality of Development Interventions” in Laos, and was the contact during the time I spent in Laos He introduced me to several people and institutions in Laos and was very supportive in specifying the direction of my research at the initial stage My acknowledgements go to Mr Sangkhane who joined me for the field trip His assistance during the interviews, knowledge on the Lao culture and the ability to contact people was very helpful Additionally I would like to mention Mr Mike Dwire and Mr Phaythoune Pilakone who were very obliging in terms of sharing information and resources iii My thanks go also to my parents, Marlies and Hans, who supported me throughout my studies and provided many inputs regarding the success of my research Your motivational stimulus, thought-provoking impulses and corrections helped me a lot Additionally I would like to thank Brigitte Portner for her skills and help regarding editing and the use of Microsoft Word, Daniel Loppacher for his advices on administrational processes and various discussions, and Adrian Weber with whom the work and leisure time in Laos was fun to spend with Finally, my thanks go to all the co-workers and the student body for their advices and talks, and my friends where I could recharge during my off time However, you are too many to be named in person Kaspar Hurni, August 2008 iv Acknowledgements The cornerstones for my research activities in Laos are on the one hand the funding and network provided by the National Centre for Competence in Research North-South and, on the other hand, the support I received from various individuals The present study is performed within the context of research projects of the Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) at the Institute of Geography of the University of Berne The CDE is the executive agency of the NCCR North-South and involved in various research themes, projects and networks all over the globe One of these projects is located in Laos and performs research on the contextuality of development interventions The local institution this project is related to is the Lao National Mekong Commission Secretariat (LNMCS) Within the framework of these three institutions the research on rubber in Laos is performed During my stay in Laos the LNMCS was the main contact, while back in Switzerland the work was performed at the CDE while the NCCR North-South provided the funding and network In Laos other Institutions contributed to this thesis, too, mainly by sharing information and data These are namely: The National Geographic Department (NGD), the National Land Management Authority (NLMA), the National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute (NAFRI), Ecotourism Laos and the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) v vi Contents Images Figures xiv Tables xiv Equations xiii xv 1.1 Rubber in Laos 1.2 Objectives 1.3 Introduction Hypotheses Approaches and methods 13 2.1 Approaches to assess the rubber dynamics 13 2.2 Fieldwork 13 2.3 Classification of satellite images 14 2.3.1 Choice of Remote Sensing data 15 2.3.2 Preparation of Remote Sensing data 16 2.3.3 Object- versus pixel-based classification 17 2.4 Input data used to model the potential spatial distribution of rubber plantations 2.5 18 Fuzzy systems 22 Results 3.1 25 Rubber detection on medium-resolution imagery (ASTER) in Northern Laos 3.1.1 Characteristics of the Rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis) 25 3.1.2 Rubber classification on satellite images 27 3.1.3 Analysis of land use and land cover changes 3.2 25 34 A spatial assessment of the potential development of rubber plantations in Laos 51 3.2.1 Reasons for the necessity of potential rubber mapping in Laos 3.2.2 Factor selection for the rubber suitability models 51 52 3.2.3 Three scenarios of the potential spatial distribution of rubber plantations in Laos 67 vii Conclusions and recommendations 83 4.1 Conclusions on rubber 83 4.2 Conclusions on methods 84 4.2.1 Satellite image classification conclusions 84 4.2.2 Modelling conclusions 85 4.3 Conclusions on hypotheses 87 4.4 Research-relevant recommendations 88 4.5 Policy-relevant recommendations 89 4.6 Recommendations for development cooperation 91 References Annex viii 93 99 Conclusions and recommendations tion data Another point concerns the interactions between the independent variables They can influence each other in a way that both show little to no correlation with the dependent variable even if considering them separately would reveal a correlation In the study at hand this occurred when including two different accessibility assumptions in the model Accessibility to China is directed northwards while the province accessibility is directed southwards within the study region With both showing opposing directions they were not able to explain the land cover changes even if for both accessibility assumptions the land cover changes generally occurred on accessible areas Prior analysis and considerations on the data to be included in the model could overcome this problem Results from the logistic regression model were used for the modelling of the potential spatial distribution of rubber plantations Methodologically, the use of fuzzy logic was the appropriate approach, as it allows including uncertainties in the analysis On national level the different scenarios reveal the effects of the policy implementations on the potential distribution of rubber The “maximum protection” and the “no conservation scenario” both represent the “extremes” and thus the policy implementation was easy to include It was more difficult to develop the “current policy scenario”, when the present policy implementations had to be modelled As “villagers, sometimes even DAFO staff, seem unable to recognize and be clear about the definitions of land-use types and management rights, or the function of each type of land use”(Phengsopha & Morimoto, 2004: 4), the assumptions on the current policy implementations are included in the model in a rather general way With the regional disparities within Laos and the different influences from outside of Laos, a regional modelling of the policies would be more appropriate Effects of the policies between the regions and on other use functions as ecotourism could be better assessed 4.5 Policy-relevant recommendations When looking at the recent history the rubber dynamic experienced in Laos at the moment poses both, chances and dangers for socio-economic development The economic reform in Laos in the mid-1980s removed barriers to internal trade, labour, and capital mobility In general these measures are favourable to regional economic growth: the integration of the Lao economy into the Southeast Asian Region already affected patterns of provincial development, as can be seen from the high number of rubber plantations in northern Laos With the economic opening the surrounding countries as for example China suddenly had access to vast areas of apparently unproductive forest land On the background of the all time high rubber price on the global market and the high Chinese demand these regional disparities developed a high dynamic regarding the establishment of new rubber plantations in Laos On the one hand this is a good opportunity to foster socio-economic development, especially in the rather poor northern regions of Laos where the GDP is approximately 62% lower than in the central regions Income from rubber can raise the people’s living standard and when looking at the sixth socio-economic development plan (2006-2010) the goals of poverty alleviation and eradication of shifting cultivation can be tackled, too 89 Rubber in Laos On the other hand, relying too heavily on the industrial crop rubber, creates one-sided dependencies from China and the global market With a decline of the rubber prices or the Chinese demand, the income of the rural population is going to fall, with detrimental effects on socio-economic development Another problem concerns the environment: With large areas of forest land being converted to rubber plantations most other use functions of the area that are linked to biodiversity are displaced This concerns mainly ecotourism and the collection of non-timber forest products, which provides an important income to the rather poor families Additionally the effect of the biodiversity of the Laotian forests on the whole Lower Mekong Region is unknown Conversion of large forest areas could thus affect more than just the river runoff within a watershed as observed by smallholders planting rubber In order to foster socio-economic development, secure the income of the rural population and to minimize dependencies the following policy relevant recommendations have been formulated: • Clarify the definitions of land use types and management rights on village level, as sometimes even the staff from the agriculture and forestry offices is not clear about it Having clear definitions about management rights enables to use the potential of rubber while still maintaining other activities in the protected forests as ecotourism and collection of non-timber forest products This prevents to some degree from environmental degradation and increases diversification which rather assures the income • Improve accessibility where needed With accessibility being a major determinant of land use and land cover change, the presence or absence of a road can thus have implications on the socio-economic development and the environment (Verburg et al., 2004) Within Laos two different levels of accessibility can be considered: One level concerns the accessibility of cultivation land from the villages and can have an effect on the degree the protection laws are observed In general, villagers respect the conservation areas unless their agricultural land is hardly accessible Improving accessibility to the cultivation land can thus have an effect on the biodiversity and thus the other use functions The second level of accessibility concerns the connection between the different regions of Laos Aforementioned, the income in the northern regions is much lower than it is in the central area Improving the connection between these regions could cause a better integration of North Laos in the national economy and thus reduce the dependency from China National enterprises can generate added value that would have been lost when exporting raw products, and tourism activities can profit as with shorter travel times the attractiveness is increased • Promote income diversification Considering the goal of poverty alleviation the promotion of different means of income generation is indispensable Currently many farmers rely completely on rubber with the expectation of the prices to stay high With a decline of the rubber price on the global market or natural hazards these farmers would lose any means of income Promotion of diversification is therefore indispensible as there are possibilities to earn similar 90 Conclusions and recommendations amounts as with rubber while pursuing other activities Investments in infrastructure and assistance for the farmers regarding coordination and organization could foster ecotourism where the beauty of the landscape allows it In more degraded regions without attractiveness for tourists the promotion of different industrial crops could help the farmers to have something to fall back on whenever the rubber price declines 4.6 Recommendations for development cooperation Similar to the policy relevant recommendations those for development cooperation concern socio-economic development and the environment, too But while the assignment of the policy lies rather in the provision of infrastructure and the definition of the legal background on national level, development agencies may rather envisage more concrete / local projects on the background of the international dynamics In the study at hand the modelling of the potential spatial distribution of rubber plantations has been performed at national level Therefore recommendations for development cooperation are rather general and need to be adapted for the local context Additionally, they may seem similar to the policy relevant recommendations, but as aforementioned, these tackle rather the institutional and legal background while the recommendations for development cooperation focus on collaboration The following points regarding cooperation have been found to be important: • Promotion of rubber where it is viable and permissible With the high rubber prices on the global market the plantation of rubber seems to be a good means to push socio-economic development In order to achieve the highest benefit, the role of the development agencies is to provide technical assistance like information about the ecological limitation of the plant, schooling in tapping techniques, etc and provide market access and information on the prices Additionally, the effect of rubber on the environment and the biodiversity needs to be considered and other activities or crops promoted if they are more viable or less harmful regarding environmental degradation • Assist measures on environmental protection and promote agroforestry in order to maintain biodiversity Laos shows a high percentage of dense forest cover in comparison with the surrounding countries The effects of the forest area and the high biodiversity of Laos on the Lower Mekong Region are unknown As farmers reported to have observed a reduction in the river runoff after forest has been converted to a rubber plantation, one can assume that large scale plantations not only affect the environment locally but also within the whole region Promotion of crops and activities different from rubber, and the introduction of agroforestry systems can prevent rubber from being the dominant land cover within a watershed This way a certain level of biodiversity can be maintained and negative effects on the whole Lower Mekong Region reduced • Reduce dependencies through diversification and the generation of added value With China being the major determinant of the actual rubber price, diversification on different levels is indispensable This can be reached by culti- 91 Rubber in Laos vating a bigger variety of crops and getting involved in activities different from agriculture Another option is to establish own processing industries – added value can be generated this way and alternatives for rubber sales are created 92 References References Abrams M, Hook S, Ramachandran B 2002 ASTER User Handbook Version Pasadena, USA: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology Alton C, Bluhm D, Sananikone S 2005 Para Rubber Study: Hevea brasiliensis Vientiane, Lao PDR: Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit, Rural Development in Mountainous Areas of Northern Lao PDR (GTZ RDMA) and National Agriculture and 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Analysis of land use and land cover changes 3.2 25 34 A spatial assessment of the potential development of rubber plantations in Laos 51 3.2.1 Reasons for the necessity of potential rubber mapping in