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CLIMATE CHANGE –
REALITIES, IMPACTS
OVER ICE CAP,
SEA LEVEL AND RISKS
Edited by Bharat Raj Singh
Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/3459
Edited by Bharat Raj Singh
Contributors
Juddy N. Okpara, Aondover A.Tarhule, Muthiah Perumal, Bharat Raj Singh, Onkar Singh, Xinhua
Liu, Michel Vennetier, François Girard, Olivier Taugourdeau, Maxime Cailleret, Yves Caraglio,
Sylvie-Annabel Sabatier, Samira Ouarmim, Cody Didier, Ali Thabeet, Jesús Efren Ospina-Noreña,
Carlos Gay García, Ana Elisa Peña del Valle, Matt Hare, Béla Nováky, Gábor Bálint, Anthony A.
Duah, Yongxin Xu, E. González-Sosa, N.M.
Ramos-Salinas, C.A.
Mastachi-Loza, R. Becerril-Piña,
Renhe Zhang, Bingyi Wu, Jinping Han, Zhiyan Zuo, F. Iyalomhe, J. Rizzi, S. Torresan, V. Gallina, A.
Critto, A. Marcomini, Mohammad Elnesr, Abdurrahman Alazba, Nataliya Moskalenko, P. J. M.
Cooper, R. D. Stern, M. Noguer, J. M. Gathenya, Hui Lu, Toshio Koike, Tetsu Ohta, Katsunori
Tamagawa, Hideyuki Fujii, David Kuria, Tony Prato, Zeyuan Qiu, Youmin Tang, Dake Chen, Dejian
Yang, Tao Lian, S.C. Nwanya, Jaroslav Solár, Martin Lindkvist, Ing-Marie Gren, Katarina Elofsson,
Erik Vanem, Bent Natvig, Arne Bang Huseby, Elzbieta M. Bitner-Gregersen
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Publishing Process Manager Iva Lipovic
Typesetting InTech Prepress, Novi Sad
Cover InTech Design Team
First published January, 2013
Printed in Croatia
A free online edition of this book is available at www.intechopen.com
Additional hard copies can be obtained from orders@intechopen.com
Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks,
Edited by Bharat Raj Singh
p. cm.
ISBN 978-953-51-0934-1
Contents
Preface IX
Section 1 Climate Change Realities and Its Evidences 1
Chapter 1 Study of Climate Change in Niger River
Basin, West Africa: Reality Not a Myth 3
Juddy N. Okpara, Aondover A.Tarhule and Muthiah Perumal
Chapter 2 A Study About Realities of Climate Change:
Glacier Melting and Growing Crises 39
Bharat Raj Singh and Onkar Singh
Chapter 3 A Methodology to Interpret Climate Change
Due to Influences of the Orbital Parameter
on Changes of Earth’s Rotation Rate and Obliquity 67
Xinhua Liu
Chapter 4 Climate Change Impact on
Tree Architectural Development and Leaf Area 103
Michel Vennetier, François Girard, Olivier Taugourdeau,
Maxime Cailleret, Yves Caraglio, Sylvie-Annabel Sabatier,
Samira Ouarmim, Cody Didier and Ali Thabeet
Section 2 Climate Change and Its Hydrological Effects 127
Chapter 5 Effects of Climate Change on Hydric Resources:
Some Implications and Solutions 129
Jesús Efren Ospina-Noreña, Carlos Gay García,
Ana Elisa Peña del Valle and Matt Hare
Chapter 6 Shifts and Modification of the Hydrological Regime
Under Climate Change in Hungary 163
Béla Nováky and Gábor Bálint
VI Contents
Chapter 7 Sustainable Utilisation of Groundwater
Resources Under Climate Change:
A Case Study of the Table Mountain
Group Aquifer of South Africa 191
Anthony A. Duah and Yongxin Xu
Chapter 8 Effect of Water Resources in the Queretaro River:
Climate Analysis and Other Changes 209
E. González-Sosa, N.M.
Ramos-Salinas,
C.A.
Mastachi-Loza and R. Becerril-Piña
Chapter 9 Effects on Summer Monsoon and Rainfall Change
Over China Due to Eurasian Snow Cover
and Ocean Thermal Conditions 227
Renhe Zhang, Bingyi Wu, Jinping Han and Zhiyan Zuo
Chapter 10 Inventory of GIS-Based Decision Support Systems
Addressing Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Waters
and Related Inland Watersheds 251
F. Iyalomhe, J. Rizzi, S. Torresan, V. Gallina,
A. Critto and A. Marcomini
Chapter 11 Effect of Climate Change on Spatio-Temporal Variability
and Trends of Evapotranspiration, and Its
Impact on Water Resources Management
in The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 273
Mohammad Elnesr and Abdurrahman Alazba
Section 3 Climate Change and Its Effects on Soil and Agriculture 297
Chapter 12 Impact of Climate Change on Vegetation
and Permafrost in West Siberia Subarctic 299
Nataliya Moskalenko
Chapter 13 Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in
Sub-Saharan Africa: Foundations for the Future 327
P. J. M. Cooper, R. D. Stern, M. Noguer and J. M. Gathenya
Chapter 14 Climate Change Assessment Due to
Long Term Soil Moisture Change and
Its Applicability Using Satellite Observations 357
Hui Lu, Toshio Koike, Tetsu Ohta, Katsunori Tamagawa,
Hideyuki Fujii and David Kuria
Chapter 15 Potential Impacts of and Adaptation to
Future Climate Change for Crop Farms:
A Case Study of Flathead Valley, Montana 379
Tony Prato and Zeyuan Qiu
Contents VII
Section 4 Climate Change and Its Impacts on Uncertainties/Risks 395
Chapter 16 Methods of Estimating Uncertainty of Climate Prediction
and Climate Change Projection 397
Youmin Tang, Dake Chen, Dejian Yang and Tao Lian
Chapter 17 Study on Perspectives of Energy Production Systems
and Climate Change Risks in Nigeria 421
S.C. Nwanya
Chapter 18 Effect of Climate Change on Mountain Pine
Distribution in Western Tatra Mountains 437
Jaroslav Solár
Chapter 19 A Study of Climate Change and Cost Effective Mitigation
of the Baltic Sea Eutrophication 459
Martin Lindkvist, Ing-Marie Gren and Katarina Elofsson
Chapter 20 An Illustration of the Effect of Climate Change
on the Ocean Wave Climate - A Stochastic Model 481
Erik Vanem, Bent Natvig, Arne Bang Huseby
and Elzbieta M. Bitner-Gregersen
Preface
Climate change is a long-term shift in the statistics of the weather (including its
averages). For example, it could show up as a change in climate normalcy (expected
average values for temperature and precipitation) for a given place and time of year,
from one decade to the next. We know that the global climate is currently changing.
The last decade of the 20
th
Century and the beginning of the 21
st
have been the
warmest periods in the entire global instrumental temperature record, starting in the
mid-19
th
century. Thus, it becomes point of attention to everyone on the following
points:
i. Why is the climate changing?
ii. What is natural variability?
iii. How much is the human induced change?
iv. What are the effects of green house gases?
v. How much have we increased the atmosphere's CO
2 concentration?
vi. Is the temperature really changing?
vii. Is there a connection between the recent drought and climate change?
viii. Is glacier and Arctic Sea ice melting fast and level of sea rising?
ix. Possible problems on account of hurricane, tsunamis and other climates"
Climate change is a normal part of the Earth's natural variability, which is related to
interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, and land, as well as changes in the amount
of solar radiation reaching the earth. The geologic record includes significant evidence
for large-scale climate changes in Earth’s past. We also know that certain natural
occurring gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO
2) and water vapour (H2O), trap heat in
the atmosphere, causing a greenhouse effect. Burning of fossil fuels, like oil, coal, and
natural gas is adding CO
2 to the atmosphere. The current level is the highest in the
past 650,000 years. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change concluded“that most of the observed increase in the globally
averaged temperature since the mid-20
th
century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”
Numerous studies are being carried out by the scientists, geologists and researchers
globally to know the potential effects of climate change. Extensive research is also
being done around the world – a good deal within NOAA – to determine the extent to
X Preface
which climate change is occurring, how much of it is being caused by anthropogenic
(man-made) forces, and its potential impacts. In some of these areas, there is not a
consensus among scientists and in fact, there are often conflicting points of view and
studies. However, with further research, no doubt many questions regarding impacts
will be resolved in the future. Most studied by researchers include the potential
impacts such as the effects on sea level, drought, local weather, and hurricanes. Most
of our current knowledge of global change comes from General Circulation Models
(GCMs).
At present, GCMs have the ability to provide us with a mean annual temperature for
the planet that is reliable. Regional and local temperature and precipitation
information from GCMs is, at present, unreliable. Much of the global change research
effort is focused on improving these models.
This book is written to create awareness to the energy engineers, academicians,
researchers, industrials and society as a whole. It lays emphasis on the current status
of climate changes and future effects on melting of glacier sea ice, rise in sea level, and
effect of disaster such as hurricanes and tsunamis, effects on hydrology and
agriculture. We all know that due to all these changes humanities are at risk. Our
beautiful Earth planet is largely destroyed, due to excessive exploration of earth’s
reservoirs and other serious manmade problems.
The main objective of this book is to produce a good document from the point of view
of knowledge seeker or public readers at large end for those who are eager to know
much about global warming and its impact on the climate changes, besides those who
have risen their voice for its remedial measures.
The ultimate effects which we are likely to face as 21
st
Century challenges are:
1. Rising seas inundation of fresh water marshlands (the everglades), low-lying
cities, and islands with seawater.
2. Changes in rainfall patterns droughts and fire in some areas, flood in other.
3. Increased likelihood of extreme events such as floods, hurricanes, etc.
4. Melting of the ice caps loss of habitat near the poles. Polar bears are now
thought to be greatly endangered by the shortening of their feeding season due to
dwindling ice packs.
5. Melting glaciers significant melting of old glaciers is already observed.
6. Widespread vanishing of animal populations following widespread habitat
loss.
7. Spread of disease migration of diseases such as malaria to new, now warmer,
regions.
8. Bleaching of coral reefs due to warming seas and acidification due to carbonic
acid formation One third of coral reefs now appear to have been severely
damaged by warming seas.
[...]... level of vulnerability of Niger River basin and its inhabitants to the impacts of climate change including climatic variability and extremes; as well as provide scientific evidence to substantiate the characterization of the current climatic variability and the future impacts of climate change on the region So the paper will try to 6 Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks. .. of the projected climate change on water resources, socio-economic activities and hydrological extremes in the region Also, since the majority of the basin lies in the Sahel zone (between lat 10oN and 20o N and long 20oW and 10oE), 16 Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks researches on characterization of current climatic variability and future climate change have been... which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited 4 Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks impacts of climate change; ranging from recurrent droughts, Niger River zero flow of 1984 and 1985 at Malaville and Niamey ( Benin and Niger) respectively, to shrinkage and disappearance of Lake Chad, devastation... Adaptation to Future Climate Change for Crop Farms XI XII Preface Section 4: Climate Change and Its Impacts on Uncertainties /Risks emphasis on the Methods of Estimating Uncertainty of Climate Prediction and Climate Change Projection, Climate Change Risks in Nigeria: the perspectives of energy production systems, Study of Adapting climate change in local level urban planning, Effect of Climate Change on Mountain... elements are changed by a realistic but 22 Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks arbitrary amount, often according to a qualitative interpretation of climate model simulations for a region Most studies have adopted synthetic scenarios of constant changes throughout the year [47] but some have introduced seasonal and spatial variations in the changes [48] and others have... 9 and 10] A rainfall decrease of 29 – 49 percent has been observed in the 1968 – 1997 period compared to the 1931 – 1960 baseline period within the Sahel region [6] (Source: NOAA NCDC Global Historical Climatology Network Data) Figure 4 Typical Rainfall Anomalies (1900 -2011) over West African Sudano-Sahel zone (11-18N and West of 10E) 8 Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and. .. the average river flow of the recent time slice (1982-2000) in table 3 is far lower than the previous reference time period (1960-1981) The logical consequence of a decline in precipitation and streamflow is a change in the timing and magnitude of the precipitation and streamflow pattern 12 Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks Mean Annual Type of Rainfall(mm) Rainfall... 3: Climate Change and Its Effects on Soil and Agriculture gives special focus on Impact of climate change on vegetation and permafrost in West Siberia Subarctic, Adapting rain fed agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa to climate change: Challenges and opportunities, Climate Change Assessment due to Long Term Soil Moisture Change and its Applicability Using Satellite Observations and Potential Impacts and. .. Melting and Growing Crises, Changes in Physical Features of Alpine Glaciers in Response to Climate Change, A Methodology to Interpret Climate Change due to Influences of the Orbital Parameter on Changes of Earth’s Rotation Rate and Obliquity and Climate Change Impact On Tree Architectural Development And Leaf Area etc Section 2: Climate Change and Its Hydrological Effects deals with Water Economy and Climate. .. development and investment in the region is evident too, and the Niger River holds tremendous development potentials Development opportunities range from 14 Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks those directly related to the river, such as power, irrigation, and navigation, to those “beyond the river,” such as increases in trade, communication investments, and enhanced . CLIMATE CHANGE –
REALITIES, IMPACTS
OVER ICE CAP,
SEA LEVEL AND RISKS
Edited by Bharat Raj Singh
Climate Change – Realities, Impacts. and high level of vulnerability of the area to
Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks
4
impacts of climate change; ranging
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