TAC OONG COA CHfNH SACH TL/ DO HOA NHAP KHAU O6| Vdl TANG TRUdNG KINH T^ 6 VIET NAM: MOT PHAN TICH THEO KENH Dinh Thi Hoang Yen'* Tom tat Viet Nam, mdt nen kinh te chuyen ddi, da bit diu cdng eude cai each kinh te lich sii vao nam 1986 va tU dd theo dudi ea hai hudng phat trien thi trUdng va Nha nUdc quan ly. Nghien eUu nay tap trung vao cac chinh sach tii do hoa thUdng mai trong nUde va qud'c te cua Viet Nam, mdt phan quan trpng ciia cai each kinh te, bang viec do mpt chi sd' cho chinh sach tU do hoa nhap khau va sau dd sii dung phan tich kenh de lUdng hoa tac ddng ciia tii do hoa nhap khau ddi vdi tang trUdng kinh te cua dat nUde, Nghien cifu nay ap dung phUdng phip nghien ciiu do Wacziarg (2001) de xuat de phan tich sd'lieu cua Viet Nam trong thdi ky 1986-2006 vdi nhUng siia ddi can thiet cho phii hdp vdi dac diem kinh te cua Viet Nam. Ket qua Udc lUdng bing hdi quy 3SLS chi ra tac ddng tieh ciic ciia tii do hoa nhap khau ddi vdi tang trUdng kinh te khi da giai thich dly du thdng tin ve cae kenh lien ket (ehi tieu cua Chinh phii, chit lUdng kinh te vi md, chenh lech thi trUdng chd den, thUdng mai ndi dia, FDI, va xuat khau). Nghien cifu nay ket luan chi sd'tu do hoi thUdng mai cif tang len mdt ddn vi thi tang trUdng kinh te tang len dUdc 0,304 diem phan tram. Trong dd, tang nang liic cdng nghe cua xuat khau, dn dinh kinh te vi md, va thUdng mai ndi dia hieu qua la cac yeu to chu yeu, m.di yeu td ehiem khoang tif 25-30% tdng tac ddng ciia cae kenh. 1. Gidi thieu Cd nhieu tranh luan ve vai trd ciia thUdng mai ddi vdi phat trien kinh te xoay quanh van de lam the nao de thUdng mai cd the lam ddng lUe cho tang trudng va lam the nao de do lUdng dUdc ich ldi nay. Lich sii dudng nhU ung hd cho sU thanh cdng eiia tii do hoa thUdng mai tai Hoa Ky nhUng nam 1940 va ciia Nhat Ban nhUng nam 1960, cung nhU cho nhUng thanh tich xiic tien xuat khau cua nhUng con Hd chau A trong nhUng nam 1970-1980, Mae du nhin chung la cac nha nghien cUu ddng y rang "thUdng mai la td't chd tang trUdng", nhUng phan tieh dinh lUdng lai dUa ra rat nhieu ket qua khic nhau ve mdi quan he giUa thUdng mai, ma chinh xic hdn la tii do hoa thUdng mai va tang trUdng kinh te, Cd ba ly do chinh tai sao nhUng ket qua lai khac nhau. ThU nhat, viec chpn chi sd' cho tu do hoa thUdng mai cd the la sd lieu ve tinh hinh thiic hien heae la xu hUdng thUdng mai theo ly thuyet (Leamer 1988). Tuy nhien, nhUng bien phap thUdng mai anh hudng ldn den ket qua thUdng mai, dac biet la nhUng bien phap han che thUdng mai va nhUng hang rao phi thue quan (Sachs va Warner 1995, Andriamananjara va Nash 1997), Thii hai, viec liia chpn eho bien giai thich eho tang trUdng kinh te d nhUng qudc gia tien hanh tii hoa hoa thUdng mai la khac nhau. Dinh Thi Hoang Yen, Tien si, Bp Cong ThUdng. Stf29(1U12/2009) OUAN Lt KINH TC MB NGHIEN CUU • TRAD DDI TAC OONG CUA CHINH SACH TU DO H6A NHAP KHXU 06\ vdl TANG TRL/dNG KINH Tf vi du tich luy va nang suat (Frankel va Remer 1999), quy md thi trUdng (Ades va Glaeser 1999). Quan trpng hdn la nhUng kenh tac ddng ciia chinh sich thUdng mai vdi tang trUdng phu thude vao tinh trang dac thu eiia tUng qud'c gia (Harrison 1996, Rodriguez va Rodrik 1999). Thii ba, phUdng phip phan tieh cin phai cdng phu hdn de nghien ciiu ti mi mdi quan he "hop den" giiia tii do hoi thUdng mai va tang trUdng, chii khdng ehi ddn thuin la phan tich tUdng quan hoac la hdi quy ciia mdt phUdng trinh duy nhat. Y tUdng chd phan tich thee kenh da dUde de xuat trong cac cdng trinh ciia Salvatore (1983), Fisher (1993), Sprout va Weaver (1993), Wacziarg (2001), va Jenkins (2004). PhUdng phap tiep can eiia Wacziarg (2001) tap trung vao viec kham pha nhiing kenh lien quan giUa chinh sach thUdng mai va tang trUdng kinh te se dUdc dung lam nen tang cho nghien ciiu nay. Theo each tiep can nay, trUdc tien la xay diing mdt ehi sd' tdng hdp cho dp md thUdng mai va xay diing mdt md hinh de udc lUdng ddng thdi bing phUdng phap binh phUdng tdi thieu 3 budc (3SLS). Can phai nhan manh rang viec ap dung thed each tiep can ciia Wacziarg (2001) cho sd' lieu chudi thdi gian la Uu viet hdn nhUng each tiep can sii dung phUdng phap phan tich tiing kenh rieng re de danh gia tac ddng ciia mdt tap hdp nhUng cai each kinh te dan xen ciia Viet Nam tif nam 1986, ma trong dd tii do hoa nhap khau mdt cai td can ban nhat. Da ed rat nhieu nghien cifu ve tU do hoi thUdng mai eua Viet Nam, dac biet la nghien ciiu ve qua trinh tU do hoi nhap khau ke tif khi Viet Nam tien hanh cai each kinh te, chu yeu dUdi sii bao trd ciia Ngan hang The gidi. Mae du tat ea cac nha nghien ciiu deu ket luan la tii do hoa thUdng mai eua Viet Nam la diing hudng, van cdn khd khan de thay cd phai tii do hoa thUdng mai da thiic day tang trUdng. Trong pham vi kien thUe eiia chiing tdi, ehUa cd mpt nghien ciiu nao sif dung phan tich kenh de dinh vi nhiing md'i quan he giUa ehinh sach tii do hoa nhap khau vdi tang trUdng kinh te d Viet Nam. Mac dii da cd mdt loat nghien cifu sii dung md hinh can bing tdng the (CGE) eho tii do hoa nhap khau ciia Viet Nam, nhin ehung elc md hinh CGE khdng the phan tieh nhiing tien bo cong nghe mpt each noi sinh. R5 rang la chinh sach tU do hoa nhap khau khdng the thiie hien dUdc trpn ven neu khdng cd sii ket ndi vdi nhUng ehinh sach kinh te vi md khac, va mdi quan he nay can phai dUdc dieu tra de thiic hien cd hieu qua qua trinh toan clu hoi dang tiep dien d Viet Nam. La mdt nen kinh te chuyen ddi, nhap khau ciia Viet Nam chiu sii quan ly eiia nhieu hang rao nhap khau. Khd khan nhat eiia qui trinh tU do hoi la dd bd nhiing quan ly nay. Mae dii dien quan ly nhap khau cua Chinh phu da thu hep lai de Uu tien nhap khau miy mdc thiet bi va nhflng nguyen lieu diu vao eIn thiet cho san xuat nhUng hoi ddn thanh toin nhap khau van tang len nhanh chdng vi sU cin thiet phai diu tU d giai doan diu eiia phat trien kinh te. Ket qua ciia qua trinh tii do hoa nhin chung da lam giam mUe thue trung binh, lam tang tham hut thUdng mai va thaeh thiic kha nang duy tri sii dn dinh kinh te vi md cua Chinh phii. Mue dieh eiia bai viet nay trUde tien la md ta nhflng dac diem eua ehinh sach tii do hoa ddi vdi nhap khau eiia Chinh phii Viet Nam va sau dd nhan dang md'i quan he ciia ehinh sich nay vdi nhflng chinh sach cai td quan trpng khic cung ed tac ddng den tang trudng kinh te d Viet Nam. 2. Qua trinh tii do hoa thiTdng mai va chi so tu do hoa nhap khau ciia Viet Nam 2.1 Chinh sach tii do hod nhap khdu vd nhiing thay ddi cua nhap khdu Ddi vdi kinh te Viet Nam, Dai hdi Dang VI nam 1986 dUdc coi nhU la mpt moc lich sif tren con dUdng phat trien hudng tdi thi trUdng vdi sii quan ly eiia Nha nUdc. That tinh ed, nhflng eai each kinh te cua Viet QUAN Lt KINH it Sdi 29(11+12/2009) TAC DONG CUA CHINH SACH TLT DO HOA NHAP KHAU D6| VOI TANG TRLfdNG KINH Tf NGHIEN CUU - TRAP DPI [J^ Nam dupe tien hanh ngay trUde sU sup dd cua Bfle tudng Berlin nam 1989, sii kien lam thay ddi tinh hinh kinh te ehinh tri qud'c te, da giup Viet Nam md rdng mdi quan he kinh te qud'c te vdi phUdng cham "da dang hoa da phUdng hoa quan he kinh te vdi cac nUde va vung lanh thd tren nguyen tac tdn trpng lan nhau, ddc lap, tii chu, binh dang va cung cd ldi". Cau lac bd Paris nam 1993 da giup ndi lai GDA cho Viet Nam, khdi xUdng qua trinh binh thudng hoa vdi cac td chUc kinh te tai chinh qud'c te trong nhflng nam 1990. Vao diu nam 2007, Viet Nam da ky hiep dinh thUdng mai sdng phUdng (BTA) vdi hiu het cac nUde tren the gidi (treng dd ehu yeu la ky sau nam 1993). Sd'lUdng elc ddi tac thUdng mai da tang tfl 10 nUde xa hdi ehu nghia thanh vien cua Hdi ddng TUdng trd Kinh te len gin 200 nUde va vung lanh thd. The ky 21 da danh dau sii hdi nhap tap trung va rpng rai cua Viet Nam vdi kinh te the gidi, bat diu bing hiep dinh thUdng mai song phUdng vdi Hda Ky nam 2000, hdp tac kinh te trong khudn khd ASEAN cdng va gia nhap WTO nam 2007. Tang eUdng mdi quan he thUdng mai da giup Viet Nam hdp ly hoa va hien dai hoa quan ly thUdng mai vfla theo cae quy dinh qud'c te vfla dap Ung tinh hinh phat trien kinh te cua dat nUdc. Song song vdi nhflng van de nay sinh trong qua trinh tii do hoa, he thd'ng luat phap va dinh che da dupe thanh lap va lien tue cai td. Cach thfle quan ly xuat nhap khau thay ddi tU han che dinh lUdng (ban ngach, chi tieu, gily phep va doanh nghiep diu md'i) den quan ly bang luat phap minh bach va nhflng khuyen khich theo cd che thi trUdng. Chinh sach thUdng mai ciia Viet Nam dUde duy tri nhat quan la hd trd xuat khau ddng thdi thay the nhap khau, trd giup vai trd cd' hflu eua cae ddanh nghiep nha nUdc. Treng qua trinh chuan hi hdi nhap kinh te the gidi (2001- 2006), mpt loat elc hoat ddng thUdng mai dUde dUa vad phip quy theo cae quy dinh eiia WTO. Dae biet vao nam 2001, cd che quan ly xuat nhap khau dai ban da dUde ban hanh bing Quyet dinh sd' 46/2001/QD-TTg (Quyet dinh 46), thay the che dp quan ly siia ddi hang nam nhU trUdc. Dac diem cua chinh sach thUdng mai nay dUdc tdm tlt trcng Phu luc 1, neu len diin bien tii do hoa vdi ehinh sach han che nhap khau hang tieu dung de danh ngudn tai chinh cho nhap khau may mdc va nhien lieu (lln lUdt chiem ty trpng 30%) va 60% kim ngach nhap khau). Tang thue va quan ly bang nhflng bien phap tUdng tii thue quan, quan ly so' lifdng va gia nhap khau tdi thieu thUdng dUdc sii dung de bao hp cac nganh cdng nghiep thay the nhap khau, song song vdi viec khuyen khich cac nganh cdng nghiep hUdng ve xuat khau. Luat thue Xuat Nhap khau cua Viet Nam dUdc ban hanh lln diu tien vao nam 1987, sau dd dUdc siia ddi vai lln theo hudng md rpng so' ddng thue ma He thd'ng Hai hoa hoa (HS), tang sd'ddng thue trong khoang tU 0-5% va gia ban so' ngay thanh toan thue nhap khau cho dau vao cua cac nganh xuat khau. TU nam 1996, Viet Nam ap dung (1) Thue Uu dai cd hieu liic chung cho cac nUdc ASEAN (CEPT/AFTA) va (2) thue dUdc Uu dai nhit (MFN) cho cac nUde da ky BTA vdi Viet Nam va thue phd thdng (bing 150% mUc thue MFN) cho nhflng nUdc cdn lai. Ben canh dd, Viet Nam quan ly chat che ngoai te cho cac cdng ty thUdng mai bang viec yeu cau ket hdi va phan bd ngoai te cho nhap khau hang tieu dung. Cho den nam 1989, Viet Nam cd' dinh ty gia vdi ddng Ruble cua Nga va Nha nUdc quan ly mpi ngudn ngoai te, sau dd chuyen sang he thd'ng ty gia tha ndi cd kiem soat. Ty gia chinh thUc dUdc xac dinh tren thi trUdng lien ngan hang vdi bien dp cd liic tfl 1% den 2%. Vao thdi diem cuoc khiing hoang tai chinh Chau A nam 1997, Viet Nam thit chat quan ly ngoai te, dac biet la quy dinh ddi vdi cac cdng ty thUdng mai cd ngudn thu ngoai te (vi du vao nam 1998, 80% thu nhap ngoai te phai ket bd'i vdi Ngan hang Nha nUdc). Mac dii Viet Nam da din dan tii do hoa he thd'ng ngoai te sau cuoc khiing hoang va bai bd quy dinh ve ket hdi vao nam 2003, tham hut thifdng mai kinh nien van la mpt thaeh thflc chinh ddi vdi quan ly ngoai hdi ciia Ngan hang Nha nUdc Viet Nam. Ket qua thiie hien chinh sach tU do hoa nhap khau dUde bieu thi trong Bang 1. S(f29(1U12/2009) OUAN Lt KINH it MB NGHIEN ClJfU - TRAP DDI TAC DONG COA CHINH SACH TLT DO HOA NHAP KHAU £X5I VOI TANG TRL/ONG KINH Tf Bang 1. Tong kim ngach nhap khau, Sir phu thuoc vao nhap khau va thue suat binh quan cua Viet Nam Tdng kim ngach nhap khau (ty USD) Sir phu thuoc vao nhap khau (%) Suat thue binh quan don gian (%) Ty le doanh thu thue (% nhap khau) 1986 2.2 8.2 6.8 1992 2.5 25.7 10.7 5.1 1995 8.2 39.3 12.8 13.9 1997 11.6 43.2 13.4 8.3 2000 15.6 50.2 - 5.3 2002 19.7 56.3 15.7 6.6 2006 44.9 73.7 17.4 3.5 Ngudn: Tinh toan ciia tac gia tir sd lieu ciia Tdng cue Thd'ng ke va Athukorala. Tdng kim ngach nhap khau tang trung binh 17.7%/nam, tfl khoang 2 ty USD nam 1986 len 45 ty USD nam 2006. Su phu thupe vao nhap khau, ty so' gifla tdng kim ngach nhap khau/GDP (M) tang len nhanh chdng tfl 8,2% nam 1986 len 50% nam 2000 va gin 74% nam 2006, Trong luc dd, thue binh quan ddn gian da tang nhe tfl 10.7%) nam 1992 len 13.4% nam 1997 va 17,4% nam 2006, Theo cac cam ket vdi WTO, bit diu tfl nam 2008, Viet Nam se phai giam thue nhap khau trung binh ddn gian xud'ng cdn 13,4% trdng thdi gian tU 6 den 11 nam. Mac dfl doanh thu thue tang len, ty le doanh thu thue/tdng gia tri nhap khau giam di tfl sau nam 1995. 2.2 Chi sd tii do hod nhap khdu Viec chpn ra mdt chi so' thich hdp de lupng hoa nhflng thay ddi trong qua trinh tU do hoa nhap khau cua Viet Nam la rat quan trpng. Rd rang la tu do hoa nhap khau phu thude chu yeu vao pham vi nhflng han che bing thue quan va nhflng hang rao phi thue (NTB). Trong khi mUc thue suit giam di trong cac nam qua thi cd nhieu lo ngai ddi vdi viec dd bd cac NTB, De cd the tien hanh phan tich lUdng hoa tic ddng cua tU do hoa nhap khau, can xay diing mdt chi sd tU do hoa nhap khau vdi cac quyen so' cho NTBs va thue nhap khiu. Nhu phan phan tich ve chinh sach tU do hoa nhap khau cua Viet Nam d phan tren, giai doan tU nam 2001 trd di danh dau bing sU ra ddi cua Quyet dinh 46 la met giai ddan thdng thdang cua chinh sich nhap khau. Dc dd, mdt bien gia bieu thi thdi gian chd viec dd bd NTB ciia Viet Nam (DUM) bing 1 dupc gin eho giai doan nghien eflu 2001- 2006 va bing 0 cho giai doan trUde dd (1986- 2000). MUe thue nhap khau la mdt chi sd khac cho tU do hoa. Tuy nhien, nhflng thay ddi ve thue suat la khd so sanh gifla cae nam do cd sd thue thay ddi lam so' lUdng cac ddng thue tang len. Dd vay, de thay cho mflc thue, ty so' doanh thu thue/tdng kim ngach nhap khau (TARIFF) dupe sii dung. Ty le phu thupe vao nhap khau dUde chpn la bien phu thude trong ham hdi quy de tim ra quyen sd cho NTB va TARIFF. Su dung phUdng phap 3SLS, M dUde quy hdi vdi mflc thu nhap (INCOME), ty sd doanh thu thue/tdng kim ngach nhap khiu (TARIFF), va bien gia cho tii do hoi nhap khau (DUM) theo phUdng trinh 1. Cic bien cdng cu dUdc sii dung la mflc dp lien lac qud'c te (vi tri dia ly), cdng nghiep hoa Gao dpng cdng nghiep), dien ticli dat canh tic sin cd (dat dai), va sii khac biet gifla gia xuat khau va gia nhap khau (ToT). Chi sd cho chinh sich tfl do hoa nhap khau (Mhb) trong phUdng trinh 2 la tdng cua chi sd TARIFF va DUM vdi cac quyen sd tUdng Ung la nhflng he sd dUde Udc lUdng tfl phUdng trinh 1. Theo Udc lUdng, 53<0, 54>0 de the hien Mlib cang nhd^ (ve gia tri tuyet dd'i) thi chinh sach nhap khau cang tii do. (1) M = 5,+5,* INCOME + ^3 * TARIFF + 5, * DUM OUAN Lt KINH it Sif 29 (11 f 12/2009) TAC OONG CUA CHINH SACH TU DO HOA NHAP KHAU 06| vdl TANG TRUdNG KINH Tf . NGHIEN ClJfU • TRAO DPI Q^J Bdng 2. Ket qua irdc lirgmg cua phuofng trlnh 1 He so' t-stat He so' t-stat Const. 37.603*** 3.783 35.247*** 3.359 INCOME 10.618 1.647 12,362*** 10,308 TARIFF -6.615** -2.455 -7.195*** -5.825 DUM 7,044 0,259 Ghi chu: *** mirc y nghia 1%, ** mire y nghia 5%. Ngudn: Tinh loan ciia tac gia. Bien cdng cu: vi tri dia ly, lao ddng cdng nghiep, dit dai, ToT (2) Mlib = S3* TARIFF + ^4* DUM Ket qua Udc lUdng cua phUdng trinh 1 dupe trinh bay trong Bang 2. Gia tri trung binh tuyet ddi ciia chi sd' Mlib trong giai doan 2001-2006 la 21.9, thap hdn rat nhieu mUe 48.3 trong giai doan 1986-2000. Kiem tra quan he nhan qua Granger xac nhan rang Mlib, TAR- IFF, va DUM la bien tao ra M. Ngoai ra, ket qua Ude lUdng ciia phUdng trinh 1 khdng cd bien DUM cung dUde trinh bay trong 2 ddng cudi cua Bang 2 va ehflng td udc lUdng vflng vdi ket qua am cua bien TARIFF. 3. Cac kenh tac dong ciia chinh sach nhap khau doi vdi tang trUcfng d Viet Nam: Khung phan tich 3.1 Tdm tdt nhiing kenh tdc dpng vd phuang phdp udc lupng ciia Wacziarg Theo Wacziarg (2001), nhflng kenh lien he gifla chinh sach thUdng mai va tang trudng kinh te dUdc dieu tra de tim ra tic dpng Idn nhat ciia ehinh sach thUdng mai dd'i vdi tang trUdng. Dac biet la tac ddng ddi vdi tang trUdng kinh te dudc cho la thdng qua 3 nhdm chinh. Mdi nhdm lai dUdc phan ra thanh 2 kenh: chinh sach eiia Chinh phu (gdm chat lUdng chinh sach vi md va quy md ciia Chinh phii), phan bd va phan phdi (gdm sU bdp meo gia ca va yeu td tich luy hay la dau tU ndi dia) va chuyen giao cdng nghe (gdm ty le xult khau cdng nghiep, va ty le FDI tren GDP). Dp md thUdng mai tang cudng tang trUdng thdng qua mdt tap hdp chinh sach kinh te vi md ly tudng vi du md rdng tien te, giam tham hut ngan sach, va giam nd nUdc ngoai trong dai ban. Ndi mdt each khic, md cUa thUdng mai tao ddng cd cho ehinh phii cai td cich quan ly theo hUdng giam bdt can thiep va tang cUdng hieu qua de tang trUdng. Mac du quy md cua chinh phu cd the phinh ra dac biet la khi cd nhflng cu sdc ben ngoai thi viec tang them quy md cua chinh phu khdng phii luc nao cung cd ldi cho tang trUdng do nd se lam giam bdt vai trd cua khu viic tU nhan va gay ra viec danh thue qui mUc. Do dd, tac ddng lan truyen ciia md cUa vdi tang trudng thdng qua nhdm chinh sach cua chinh phu van ehUa rd rang, phu thude vao sii can bang gifla tac ddng tich ciic ciia gdi chinh sach kinh te vi md va nhflng chi phi cho viec can thiep cua chinh phu. Nhflng lap luan eho phan bd va phan phd'i dupe bat ngudn tfl ly thuyet kinh te cd dien bi chi phdi bdi ly thuyet ve ldi the so sanh. Theo dd, cac qud'c gia deu cd ldi khi tham gia thUdng mai va chuyen mdn hoa vao nganh san xuat cd hieu qua nhat cua minh. Do sii canh tranh bi gidi han bdi quy md ciia thi trUdng nen tii do hoa thUdng mai ed the la mdt cu day eho diu tu ndi chung va cho hang hoa tU ban ndi S6'29 (11f 12/2009) QUAN Lt KINH it MB NGHIEN Cl/l) - TRAO DOI TAC DONG CUA CHfNH SACH Tl/DO HOA NHAP KHAU Odl VOI TANG TRI/SNG KINH Tf rieng. Mdt gia dinh khac la gia ca linh hoat de tii do hoa thUdng mai cd the tao dieu kien eho sU hdi tu gii ca, nhflng nUde ed chinh sich md cfla thUdng mai nhin chung se cd mUe gia thap hdn va gia ea it hi bdp mee hdn, tflc la cd nhflng dieu kien td't chd tang trudng hdn cae nUdc ddng ciia. Ldi ich ddng eua thUdng mai dUde rut ra tfl ly thuyet mdi ve tang trUdng ndi sinh trong dd nhan manh vai trd quan trpng ciia ddi mdi cdng nghe va nang suat trong qui trinh phat trien. Ldi ich ddng ciia thUdng mai ddi vdi tang trUdng kinh te cd the dUdc the hien thdng qua viec eai thien cac yeu td' nang suat tong hdp (TFP), dac biet thdng qua tac dpng lan toa ciia FDI va nhflng tac ddng ddi mdi eua xuat khau. Tii do hoa thUdng mai dat cac nha san xuat trong nude vao vi tri phai noi theo nhflng cdng nghe ngudn cua cae nUdc cdng nghiep, ching han nhU vi du thanh cdng cua viec chuyen ddi cd cau xuat khau tfl ndng nghiep sang cdng nghiep nang, cudi cung la sang nhflng hang cdng nghe cao ciia cae nUdc Ddng A. FDI thudng di vdi tu do hoi thUdng mai va mang vao dat nUde dupe diu tu nhflng hang tU ban hien dai va viec phd bien kien thflc chuyen mdn, nhflng yeu td'cd the kich thich tang trUdng manh hdn ea gia tri tien bae cua FDI. Vdi gia dinh la 6 kenh tren ed the thau tdm tean bd tie dpng ciia chinh sach thUdng mai ddi vdi tang trUdng, Wacziarg (2001) da xay diing mdt md hinh cau true, va Ude lUdng bing phUdng phap 3SLS. PhUdng phap nay dat dUdc sU thd'ng nhat bang viec phd'i hdp gia dinh ve bien nglu nhien, nhflng dac diem ciia bien cdng cu trong viec xU ly tinh ndi sinh, va hieu qua eua quy hdi binh phUdng td'i thieu tdng quat hel. Wacziarg (2001) da sfl dung mpt tap hpp nhieu bien cdng eu de didn ta sii phit trien eiia nhflng ly thuyet tang tUdng kinh te hien dai, dac biet la nhflng yeu to quyet dinh eua md hinh khdng gian va md hinh kinh te vi md. 3.2 Khung phdn tich Chung tdi di theo y tudng, phUdng phap ude lUdng va mdt so' bien trong cdng trinh cua Wacziarg nhU phln giai thich phia tren de xac dinh nhflng ye'u to' quyet dinh eho tie ddng ciia tii do hoa nhap khau dd'i vdi tang trUdng d Viet Nam trong giai doan 1986- 2006. Tuy nhien, khac vdi Wacziarg (2001), nghien cflu nay khdng gdp xuat khau trong ehi so' dp md ma sii dung ehi so' tU do hoa nhap khau de chi ro viec dd bd nhflng quan ly cua Nha nUde ddi vdi nhap khau bing thue va NTBs. Trong khi dd, xuat khau thi khdng hi chinh phii Viet Nam han che va dupe dUa ra nhU mdt kenh lan truyen tie ddng tfl tfl do hoi nhap khau ddi vdi tang trUdng kinh te. Ngdai ra, Wacziarg (2001) sfl dung dau tU de phan Inh ea tie ddng ve mat quy md lln chat lUdng (bing viec tang len ludng hang hoa tU ban vao qud'c gia va bing xu hudng ldi nhuan tang theo quy md do chuyen mdn hoi). O dly, tic ddng ve mat quy md eua diu tU ddi vdi tang trudng dUdc do ludng true tiep bing bien vd'n tU ban va tac ddng ve mat chat lUdng cua dau tU dUde the hien bing TFP trong phUdng trinh tang trUdng, trong dd bien phu thude la td'c dp tang trudng chfl khdng phai la td'c dp tang trUdng theo diu ngUdi nhU Wacziarg (2001). Thay vao dd, thUdng mai npi dia (DTRA) dupe them vao nhU la mdt bie'n the hien tinh hieu qua cua phan bd va phan phdi hang hoa va dich vu, chfl khdng chi la hieu qua trong viec phan bd va phan phd'i eua vd'n tfl ban nhu trong ly thuyet truyen thd'ng. Nhflng gia dinh nglm dd la viec gia tang sfl tham gia cua khu viic phi Nha nfldc trong thfldng mai ndi dia se td't hdn eho tang trfldng kinh te khi thUdng mai dUde tii do hoa d Viet Nam. Ngoai ra, md hinh cua Wacziarg (2001) si diing phan tich lien qud'c gia trong khi md hinh ciia chung tdi sfl dung chudi thdi gian de nghien eflu met qud'c gia. Do vay, sii lUa chon cua cac bie'n, cflng nhfl la bie'n gia can phai dupe thay ddi sao cho phu hdp vdi hoan canh cua kinh te Viet Nam. Vi du nhfl ehung tdi khdng can bie'n chi sd dan chu, bie'n gia ve dao, sii phan hoa ngdn ngfl dan tde, hoac bie'n ve QUAN Lt KINHTE Slf29(1U12/2009) TAC DONG CUA CHINH SACH TU DO HOA NHAP KHAU D6I VOI TANG TRUONG KINH Tf NGHIEN CIA) - TRAP DPI [^H ddc lap sau chien tranh de dieu chinh sii khac biet cua cac nUdc. Thay vi vay, mpt vai bien cho dan so' va giio due vi du nhU tudi thp cua nam va nfl, ODA, sd'lUdng cac dii an FDI, ty le hpc sinh tren phd thdng trung hpc trong tdng so dan, sd' lUdng sinh vien, va phln tram cua dan so' sd'ng d thanh thi dUdc sfl dung. O cap dp tdng quat, ham san xuat cua mdt nen kinh te ed the dUde bieu dien bang ham Cobb-Douglas nhU sau: ]-a Y = AK''L' Trong dd, A the hien trinh dp cdng nghe, K vd'n vat chat, va L lao ddng. Liy vi phan theo thdi gian chd quan he Solow vdi nhflng chfl cai cd dau cham the hien sfl thay ddi ve so' Ifldng Y A K ^^ r — - — -\-a — -H(1-«) — Y A K L Diia tren dang thflc ddn gian nay, trdng dd td'c dp tang trfldng dUdc gia dinh chi la phu thude vao tang trUdng ciia cdng nghe, vd'n hflu hinh, lao ddng va mdt danh sach cac bie'n dflde dfla vao vi tri ciia dinh td' cdng nghe (TFP)de thau tdm nhflng ldi ich ddng. Phfldng trinh tang trUdng GDP thay ddi dUde the hien trong phUdng trinh 3. Nhflng chfl cai thUdng dien ta td'c dp tang trUdng (y, k, va 1), va 6 kenh la chi tieu cua chinh phii (GOV), chinh sach vi md (MACRO), meo md gia ca (BMP), phan phd'i lUu thdng trong nUde (DTRA), nang life ky thuat the hien bdi sii cai thien nang liic canh tranh xuat khau qud'c te (X) va chuyen giao cdng nghe (FDI). Sau bie'n nay gdp phan giai thich sU tien bd cua TFP khi tu do nhap khau dUdc thiic hien. Nhflng cdng eu dflde chpn de phan anh td't nhat nhflng dac diem cua Viet Nam, vi du lae ddng theo gidi, viec hpc tap, mat dp dan sd', ODA va nhflng cu sdc cua chenh lech gia thfldng mai. {3)y = p,+P2*k + p,*l + p,*GOV-\-p,*MACRO-\- + p^* BMP + /u^* DTRA + /u^* FDI + ^,* X Bie'n cdng cu: lao ddng nam, lao ddng nfl, dan so'15, dan sd'65, eao dang, mat dp, ODA, so dfl an FDI, ToT Sau dd, mdt he thd'ng phfldng trinh cd cau dupe xay diing de tinh den vai trd eua Mlib trcng tat ca cac phUdng trinh cho eae bie'n kenh trong dd tflng bie'n kenh ehinh lai dflde giai thich bang nhflng bie'n kenh khac. Nhflng thdng sd'cho tflng bie'n di theo nhflng tranh luan cua nghien eflu kinh vien ve mdi quan he gifla thfldng mai va tang trudng cflng vdi phan tich ve tfl de hdi nhap khau cua Viet Nam va tinh hinh kinh te vi md. Phan tich ve 6 kenh dflde trinh bay trong phln dfldi day. 3.2.1. Kenh thil nhdt: Quy mo cua chinh phu, (GOV). Quy md cua chinh phii la mdt chi sd' quan trpng cho viec can dii cua khu viic cdng dd'i vdi nen kinh te. Tfl quan diem cua kinh te tfl do va hoc thuyet ban tay vd hinh, chinh phu can dii cang it thi cang td't cho nen kinh te. Tuy nhien, vai trd cua ehinh phu thfldng rat quan trpng d cac nUde dang phat trien do viec thieu tram trpng elc cd sd ha ting cd ban tfl dUdng xa, clu, cang, trUdng hpc, benh vien den he thd'ng tai chinh va luat phap. Trong khi mdt sd' nghien eflu phat hien ra quy md chinh phu tie ddng tieu ciic den tang trudng (Edwards 1992, Barro 1989), nhflng bing chUng eua tang trudng kinh te do xuat khau d cac nUde Chau a chi ra vai trd quan trpng cua ed sd ha ting hd trd cho xuat khau. Vinold va cdng sU (1990) da liet ke mdt loat nhflng van de kem hieu qua cua cd sd ha ting da han che su dap flng eua tdng cung dd'i vdi nhflng thay ddi chinh sach, dac biet la mdt he thd'ng mien thue va tiep can khdng han che cho diu vao nhap khau yeu kem, he thd'ng cang, cae phfldng tien truyen thdng va giae thdng khdng dly dii, it thdng tin va nhflng dieh vu nghien cflu thi trfldng cho cac nha xult khau. Do vay, van cdn chfla chae ring quy md eua Nha nfldc ldn thi td't cho tang trfldng kinh te cua Viet Nam. »r29nui2/2oog) QUAN Lt KINH it MB NGHIEN ClAl - TRAP DDI TAC DONG CUA CHINH SACH TU DO HOA NHAP KHAU D6I VOI TANG TRUONG KINH Tf 6 Viet Nam,Chinh phii ddng vai trd chu dao trong nen kinh te vdi muc tieu tdi thfldng la phit trien va dn dinh mdi trUdng kinh doanh theo cae quy luat cua thi trUdng. Chi tieu eiia Chinh phii tang len trong thdi gian gin day, nam 2006 chiem kheang 32% GDP tang so vdi mflc 20% nam 1986. Mac du giao due, y te, va cac dich vu xa hdi khac da dUde xa hdi hoa, mdt phln ldn cua chi tieu Chinh phu la danh cho tieu dung vang lai (ehiem 52,54% nam 2006, giam so vdi mflc 72,5% nam 1986). Trung binh giai doan 1986- 2006, chi tieu vd'n cua Chinh phu chiem khoang 27% tdng chi. Diu tU cua chinh phu gia cd'dinh 1994 chiem khoang 53,8% tdng diu tu xa hdi, trong dd 52,6% tfl ngan sach Nha nUdc, 13,6% tfl nd Chinh phu, va 14,6% tfl SOE va nhflng ngudn khac (chu yeu la tfl ODA). Mdt nfla dau tU eua Chinh phu trong giai doan 2000-2005 chay vao phat trien cd sd ha tang bao gdm dien, gas, cap nUdc, van chuyen, dfl trfl, va thdng tien lien lac bdi vi Viet Nam vin cdn thieu cd sd ha ting ca phln eUng va phln mem cin thiet eho viec truyen tac ddng cua thUdng mai den tang trUdng. Chat lUdng eua Chinh phu cd the la yeu td' quan trpng hdn quy md eua Chinh phu. Tuy nhien, vin khdng the do hieu qua nhflng can thiep bing chinh sach cua Chinh phu bing mdt chi sd' gdp. Do vay, de nim bit dflde tac ddng cua viec chi tieu eua Chinh phu hay la sfl can thiep cua Chinh phu dd'i vdi nen kinh te, ty le tdng chi tieu chinh phu tren GDP dflde chpn la gia tri eho bie'n GOV. Phfldng trinh chd chi tieu cua ehinh phu (phUdng trinh 4) dUdc quy dinh de Mlib hen he vdi chat lUdng vi md (MACRO), va sii meo md ciia ty gia (BMP). Hai bie'n nay dUdc chpn vi chung cd quan he triic tiep vdi chinh sach tai khcl va tinh hinh dn dinh kinh te vi md, nhiem vu trung tam cua chinh phu Viet Nam. Dau eua bie'n Eg dii kien la am, the hien viec giam bdt vai trd cua chinh phu khi dat nUde bUde vao qua trinh tfl do hoi manh hdn va sfl gia tang vai trd ciia khu viic tu nhan. Ben canh dd, S3 dflde dfl kien la dUdng va 84 am de phan anh vai trd eua chat lUdng td't hdn eiia chinh sach kinh te vi md cung nhU tac dpng xau cua gia ca bi bdp meo dd'i vdi quy md ciia chinh phii. (4) GOV = €,+£,* Mlib + f 3 * MACRO + e, * BMP Bie'n cdng eu: dan so' 15, dan so' 65, mat dp, lao ddng cdng nghiep. 3.2.2. Kenh thii hai: Chdt liipng chinh sach vi mo (MACRO) MACRO la mdt chi so' ve viec thiic thi chinh sach ben canh bie'n GOV de xac dinh sii dn dinh cua chinh sach kinh te vi md. Mdt trong nhflng bai hoc quy bau tfl kinh nghiem thanh cdng kinh te cac nfldc Ddng a la sU duy tri tinh dn dinh cua kinh te vi md, bao gdm mflc tham hut tai khoa thap, mflc lam phat thap, va ty gia dn dinh vfla phai (Vinold va cpng sfl 1990). Tinh dn dinh ciia kinh te vi md cd xu hudng tac dpng tich ciic den tang trfldng bing viec giam nhflng that thfldng cua gia ca va han che tham hut ngan sach va nd ehinh phu, nhd dd ma giam tie ddng thay the vai trd tU nhan cua chinh phu va cung cd'ele cdng ty trong nUdc. Khi tinh dn dinh cua kinh te vi md, hieu life cua chi'nh sach, va viec thflc thi cac hdp ddng khdng dflde duy tri, thi mdt qud'c gia khd cd the tang trfldng d mflc dp cao trong mpt thdi gian dn dinh va trong mot mdi trfldng kinh ddanh md (Panagariya 2004). Nhiem vu ldn nhat ciia Chinh phii Viet Nam d giai doan ban dau ciia cai each la dn dinh tinh hinh kinh te vi md. Dat nfldc ci trong tinh trang dinh dd'n vdi lam phat phi ma len den 874.7% vao thang 12 nam 1986. Doi tien nam 1985 bing viec dinh gia 10 ddng cu an 1 ddng mdi da lam tii do hoa gia ca trong nfldc nhUng khdng the kim ham lam phat va phuc hdi ddng cd diu tu cho den dau nhflng nam 1990. Tuy nhien, tham hut ngan sach ciia Viet Nam, chii yeu la thu tfl san xuat dau md, ldi nhuan eua cic doanh nghiep nha nfldc va vien trd nfldc ngoai, ludn d trong QUAN Lt KINH it S6 29nu12/2009) TAC DONG CCIA CHINH SACH TU DO HOA NHAP KHXU D<5I VOI TANG TRUONG KINH Tf NGHIEN CIJHJ - TRAO DO! [jJ|i|J tinh trang tham hut. Ket qua la nd Nha nfldc chdng chat va dflde thanh toan chii yeu bang viec can ddi tien mat trong cac ngan hang npi dia va vay nd nfldc ngdai. Do vay, quan ly kinh te vi md cua Viet Nam tap trung vao cac chinh sach dn dinh hoa tai khoa va tien te. Dieu nay dflde the hien thdng qua mdt chi so' gdp gdm ed 3 bie'n vi md: nd nfldc ngoai eua Nha nUde tren GDP (zl), tham hut tai khoa tren GDP (z2), va chenh lech gifla td'c dp tang trfldng tien rpng M2 va td'c dp tang trfldng san Ifldng (z3). Viec xay dflng bie'n MACRO la dec lap gid'ng nhfl bie'n Mlib, do dd phfldng trinh (5) khdng nim trong he thd'ng phfldng trinh kenh. Quyen sd'cho zl den z3 la 1/3 va gia tri ciia chung nim trong khoang tfl 1 eho de'n 21 tuy theo thfl tfl sap xep trong giai doan nghien cflu. Chi so' chinh sach kinh te vi md (MACRO) dflde tinh theo phfldng trinh (5). Gil tri chi so' cang cao thi the hien ehinh sich cang td't. Chi sd' MACRO trong giai doan 2001-2006 la 13 cao hdn giai doan trUdc dd la 10.2. {5)MACR0 = y,' ^,+x*. + X' (6) MACRO = r],+ri,*Mlib-\-J],*GOV+ r],*BMP Bien cdng cu: ToT, ODA, lao ddng cdng nghiep. PhUdng trinh (6) dien ta quan he gifla bie'n MACRO va Mlib va 2 bie'n ve ehinh sach tai khea va tien te, dd la quy md eua chinh phu (GOV) va chenh lech ty gia tren thi trfldng chd den (BMP). Dfl kien dau ciia ri2>0 do tfl do hoa nhap khau cd tac dong tich ciic den mdi trUdng kinh te vi md. Ngeai ra, dau dii kien cua ri3 va r|4 la am, the hien tic ddng trai chieu ciia tieu dung ehinh phu qua mflc va sfl meo md ciia ehinh sach kinh te vi md. 3.2.3. Kenh thdi ba: Chenh lech thi trudng chp den (BMP) Chinh sach ngoai hdi cung la mdt cdng cu kinh te vi md quan trpng, dac biet ddi vdi cac nen kinh te md cfla, do tac ddng trflc tiep dd'i vdi nhap khau va xuat khau. Ty gia cd xu hfldng dflde dinh gia qua mflc khi 1) cd sfl khdng nhat quan sau sac gifla tdng clu trong nfldc va chinh sach ty gia hdi doli va 2) khi ehinh phu cd' gang duy tri mdt ty gii d mflc thap de dd'i khing vdi tam ly khdng dn dinh cua dan chung hoac la tham hut can can thanh toin (Rodriguez va Rodrik 1999). Viet Nam cd ve nhfl khdng dip flng dieu kien dau tien vi tham hut trong can can thanh toin cd the dflde bu dip bing FDI va kieu hdi. Tuy nhien, ddng Viet Nam da dflde pha gii din dan tfl 80 VND/USD nam 1986 len trong khoang 10000-12000 VND/USD trflde nam 1997, va khoang 14000-16000 thdi gian sau dd. Sfl khac biet gifla ty gia VND/USD gifla thi trfldng chinh thflc va thi trfldng chd den, d\i6c gpi la chenh lech ty gii (BMP) va dflde chpn lam mdt chi sd cho sfl bdp meo gii ca bdi vi nd phan Inh toan dien va ngay lap tflc chinh sach quan ly ngoai hdi eua Viet Nam. Vao nam 1997, ty gia hd'i doai tren thi trfldng mat gia ngay lap tflc khi ddng Viet Nam hi pha gia lam cho BMP dan ra. Ket qua la xult khau va nhap khau co lai nhanh chdng, nhflng chi sd ve chi tieu ehinh phu va kinh te vi md cflng bi suy giam. Bie'n BMP dflde xac dinh trdng phfldng trinh (7), vdi diu cua Y2<0, ed nghia la tfl dd hoa nhap khau se lam ty gia it meo md hdn nhd cd quan ly kinh te vi md hdp ly va thu hep gia nfldc ngcai va trong nfldc. Chi tieu chinh phu (GOV) va tdng clu trong nfldc (DTRA) dflde chpn lam bie'n giai thich cho BMP de phan Inh he thd'ng quan ly ty gia tha ndi cua ehinh phu va tieu dflng ndi dia dang phat trien d Viet Nam. Dau ky vpng eua hai he sd' nay lan lUdt la yS <0 va y4 >0, the hien tie ddng bat ldi eua tieu dflng chinh phu qua mflc va tac ddng manh me cua sfl phit trien thfldng mai ndi dja ddi vdi he thd'ng ty gia tha ndi ed kiem soat. (7) BMP = 7, + ^2 * Mlib + r,*GOV + y^* DTRA Bie'n cdng cu: mat dp, di hpc, ToT Sir29(1U12/2009) QUAN Lt KINH it MB NGHIEN OiiU • TRAD DDI TAC DONG CUA CHINH SACH TU DO HOA NHAP KHXU 06| VOI TANG TRUSNG KINH Tf 3.2.4. Kenh thit tii: Thuang mqi npi dia (DTRA) Bie'n DTRA la bie'n gia gin cho kenh Iflu thdng va phan phd'i de chi ra quan he trflc tiep gifla khu vUc dich vu vdi san xuat va mflc clu cho tieu dung tfl nhan. Lien quan den TFP, tinh nang ddng va chuyen nghiep cua cdng tac dieu van se giup lam tang nang suat cua khu viic san xuat. Trflde tien, khi thfldng mai dflde tii do hoa, ap liie tfl canh tranh nfldc ngoai lam cho he thd'ng thfldng mai trong nfldc trd nen cd hieu qua hdn, dd dd nhflng tien bd eua thfldng mai ndi dia se giup tang nang suit cua khu viic san xuat sfl dung he thd'ng dich vu phan phdi ndi dia. ThU hai, khdng ehi khu vUe san xuat ed the hUdng ldi tfl he thd'ng phan phd'i cd hieu qua hdn. Tat ea cae nganh trong nen kinh te sfl dung diu ra eua nhflng nganh khac lam dau vao eua minh cung dflde hfldng ldi nhd chi phi diu vao thap hdn nhd ed he thd'ng phan phdi td't hdn. Thfldng mai ndi dia cua Viet Nam dflde thflc hien bing he thd'ng tem phieu cho den tan cud'i nhflng nam 1980. Sau dd he thd'ng nay dflde thay bang he thd'ng theo ed che thi trfldng vdi sfl tham gia eua khu vfle nfldc ngoai vao nam 1994. Mac du he thd'ng ban le trong nfldc van cdn manh mun, ca ve ed sd ha ting va quan ly, doanh sd' ban trong nfldc tang len manh me trung binh d mflc 17.2%/nam va chiem khoang 80% cua tdng tieu dung. Vao nam 2007, td'c dp tang trfldng cua thfldng mai ban le ndi dia xep thfl 4 tren the gidi, sau an Dp, Nga, va Trung Qud'c (Dinh 2007). Vdi td'c dp tang trfldng kinh te nhanh va dan sd' tre, thfldng mai ban le ndi dia cua Viet Nam (DTRA) chic chin la mdt kenh ndi tfl do hoi nhap khau vdi san xuat va tieu dflng trong nfldc. Ty le thfldng mai ndi dia hang hoa va dich vu ngoai qud'c doanh da dflde loai bd yeu td' lam phit tren GDP dUdc dung lam bie'n thay the cho DTRA. Ty so' nay the hien sii tham gia tfl do hdn cua khu vfle tfl nhan va nUdc ngoai vao thUdng mai ndi dia, thay cho he thd'ng tem phieu khi Nha nUde hoan toan kiem soat viec lUu thdng phan phd'i hang hoa va dich vu. PhUdng trinh (8) Udc lUdng DTRA vdi bie'n giai thich la Mlib, xua't khau (X), dai dien cho quan he gifla thfldng mai trong nfldc va qud'c te. Dii kien tfl do hoa nhap khau va xuat khau se kich thich thfldng mai ban le ndi dia, tflc la ?^2>0 va ^3>0. (8) DTRA = \+l,*Mlib + X,*BMP + X,*X Bie'n cdng cu: Thanh thi, ToT, mat dp 3.2.5. Kenh thii nam: Dau tU triic tiep nudc ngodi (FDI) Dd'i vdi elc nfldc dang phat trien, FDI la ngudn chuyen giao cdng nghe va nang cao nang suit quan trpng. Nhflng phan doan san xuat qud'c te thfldng dflde thflc hien bdi cac cdng ty FDI. Nhd cd tie ddng ngoai bien tich ciic ve hpc hdi lan nhau, elc nfldc dang phat trien cd the tien len mflc tang trfldng cao hdn dfldi che dp thfldng mai tfl do hdn la che dp tfl cung tfl cap (Goh va Wan 2005). Bie'n FDI dflde sfl dung d day khdng phai de giai thich vd'n diu tU tang len ma la tac dpng ngoai vi tich ciic cua FDI nhfl tien bp cdng nghe, tac dpng hpc hdi cua cac doanh nghiep trong nfldc, hoac la dao tao lao dpng. Hau het nhflng nghien cflu ve khu vfle FDI d Viet Nam da ehflng td quan he tieh ciic gifla FDI va tfl do hoi thfldng mai, va FDI va tang trfldng, dac biet la ve mat ddng vd'n dd vao eho dau tfl va lan truyen cdng nghe theo nganh dpc. Luat Dau tfl trflc tiep nfldc ngoai ciia Viet Nam dflde ban hanh vao nam 1987 va sau dd lien tue dflde siia ddi theo hfldng flu tien cho khu vfle FDI. Vao thing 11/2007, 68,55% FDI thflc hien danh cho khu vfle cdng nghiep va xay dflng, 6,93% cho ndng nghiep, lam nghiep, va ngfl nghiep, 24,52% cho khu vUe dich vu. Khi nen kinh te cdn ddng ciia, khu vUe nha nfldc trong san xuat va thfldng mai van cdn la chii dao nhflng san lUdng cdng nghiep va gia tri xuat khau 3 QUAN Lt KINH TC Sd 29 (11+12/2009) [...]... ben phai {Cbn nUa) TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Tieng Viet 1 Dinh Thi My Loan (2007), "Thi trUdng ban le Viet Nam thcfi ky hau gia nhap WTO va van de kiem soat canh tranh trong linh vi(c nay", QUAN Lt KINH it MB NGHIEN cuu - TRAO DOI TAC DONG CUA CHINH SACH TU DO HOA NHAP KHAU 001 vOl T A N G TRUONG KINH Tf Tap chi Thong tin vd Dii bdo Kinh te xd hdi, So 22, tra 42-45 2 Quyet dinh 46/2001/QD-TTg cua Thu tUdng... 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Institution Vol 1995 (i); i - n s T^ , " Salvatorc Dommck (1983), "A Simultaneous Sachs Jeferey J, and Warner Andrew (1995), Economic Reform and Process of Global Integration, Brookings Papers on Economic ^^*^ Dynamic Policy Simulations", International Review for Social Science, Vol 36 (1): 66-90 Stf29(1U12/2009) Equations Model of Trade and Development QUAN Lt KINH TC ... »(29(1U12/200g) NGHIEN cuu - TRAO DOI Khi tdng gia tri x u l t khau vfldt qua mflc 40 ty USD nam 2006 tfl mflc 800 trieu USD nam 1986, xuat khau la mdt c l u ndi khdng the bd qua gifla tU do hoa nhap k h a u va tang trudng kinh te d Viet Nam De danh gia tien bd nang liie cdng nghe, bie'n gia eho xuat khau se la ty le hang xuat k h a u cdng nghiep trong tdng kim ngach xuat khau Tuy nhien, do van de thieu sd' lieu... hudng bdi tU do hoa nhap khau (Mlib) va quan ly ngoai hdi (BMP) Ky vpng d i u la (B2>0 va a)3 . KINH it MB NGHIEN cuu - TRAO DOI TAC DONG CUA CHINH SACH TU DO HOA NHAP KHAU 001 vOl TANG TRUONG KINH Tf Tap chi Thong tin vd Dii bdo Kinh. each kinh te cua Viet QUAN Lt KINH it Sdi 29(11+12/2009) TAC DONG CUA CHINH SACH TLT DO HOA NHAP KHAU D6| VOI TANG TRLfdNG KINH Tf