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Editors
-HDQĥ3LHUUH&KDXIIRXU0DULHP0DORXFKH
Trade Finance
during the
Great Trade
Collapse
Trade Finance
during the Great
Trade Collapse
Jean-Pierre Chauffour and Mariem Malouche
Editors
Trade Finance
during the Great
Trade Collapse
© 2011 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
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Washington DC 20433
Telephone: 202-473-1000
Internet: www.worldbank.org
All rights reserved
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This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World
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ISBN: 978-0-8213-8748-1
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8749-8
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8748-1
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Chauffour, Jean-Pierre.
Trade finance during the great trade collapse / Jean-Pierre Chauffour and Mariem Malouche.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8213-8748-1 — ISBN 978-0-8213-8749-8 (electronic)
1. Export credit. 2. Exports—Finance. 3. Financial crises. 4. International trade. I. Malouche, Mariem,
1973- II. Title.
HG3753.C435 2011
332.7'42—dc22
2011012219
Cover photos: © moodboard/Corbis (Money Rolls); Adobe Image Library (background)
Cover design by Tomoko Hirata/World Bank
contents
Foreword xi
Acknowledgments xiii
About the Editors and Contributors xv
Abbreviations xix
Overview 1
Section I SPECIFICITY OF TRADE CREDIT AND TRADE
FINANCE DURING CRISES 25
1 Trade Credit versus Bank Credit during
Financial Crises 27
Inessa Love
2 Firms’ Trade-Financing Decisions during Crises 41
Daniela Fabbri and Anna Maria C. Menichini
3 Interfirm Trade Finance: Pain or Blessing during
Financial Crises? 59
Anna Maria C. Menichini
4 Financial Crisis and Supply-Chain Financing 73
Leora Klapper and Douglas Randall
Section II TRADE FINANCE DURING THE 2008–09 CRISIS:
INNOCENT OR GUILTY? 87
5 Trade Finance in the 2008–09 Financial Crisis:
Evidence from IMF and BAFT–IFSA Surveys of Banks 89
Irena Asmundson, Thomas Dorsey, Armine Khachatryan,
Ioana Niculcea, and Mika Saito
6 Global Perspectives in the Decline of Trade Finance 117
Jesse Mora and William Powers
v
7 The Role of Trade Finance in the U.S. Trade
Collapse: A Skeptic’s View 133
Andrei A. Levchenko, Logan T. Lewis, and Linda L. Tesar
8 Trade Finance in Africa: A Survey of Firms 149
John Humphrey
9 Financial Crises and African Trade 161
Nicolas Berman and Philippe Martin
10 World Bank Firm and Bank Surveys in
14 Developing Countries, 2009 and 2010 173
Mariem Malouche
11 Private Trade Credit Insurers during the Crisis:
The Invisible Banks 199
Koen J. M. van der Veer
12 Trade Finance in the Recovery of Trade Relations
after Banking Crises 213
Cosimo Beverelli, Madina Kukenova, and Nadia Rocha
Section III UNDERPINNINGS OF TRADE FINANCE
INTERVENTION DURING FINANCIAL CRISES 233
13 The Theoretical Case for Trade Finance in
a Liquidity Crisis 235
Tore Ellingsen and Jonas Vlachos
14 Why Boosting the Availability of Trade Finance
Became a Priority during the 2008–09 Crisis 245
Jean-Jacques Hallaert
15 Market Adjustment versus Market Failure 257
Jean-Pierre Chauffour and Thomas Farole
16 Should Developing Countries Establish
Export Credit Agencies? 273
Jean-Pierre Chauffour, Christian Saborowski, and
Ahmet I. Soylemezoglu
Section IV INSTITUTIONAL TRADE FINANCE SUPPORT
DURING THE 2008–09 FINANCIAL CRISIS 287
17 World Trade Organization Response to the Crisis:
A Convening Power to Boost the Availability
of Trade Finance 289
Marc Auboin
vi Contents
18 The World Bank Group’s Response to the Crisis:
Expanded Capacity for Unfunded and Funded
Support for Trade with Emerging Markets 301
Bonnie Galat and Hyung Ahn
19 Regional Development Banks’ Response to
the Crisis: Scaling Up the Trade Finance Facilities 319
Rudolf Putz, Ghazi Ben Ahmed, Steven Beck,
and Daniela Carrera
20 Credit Insurance in Support of International Trade:
Observations throughout the Crisis 337
Fabrice Morel
21 Business Responding to the Financial Crisis:
Setting Up a Policy Agenda for Trade Finance 357
Thierry J. Senechal
22 Private Bankers’ Response to the Crisis:
Warnings about Changes to Basel
Regulatory Treatment of Trade Finance 373
Donna K. Alexander, Tan Kah Chye, Adnan Ghani, and
Jean-François Lambert
23 Trade Finance under the Current Basel
Regulatory Framework: What are the Issues? 385
Marc Auboin
Index 393
Contents vii
Boxes
5.1 The IMF/BAFT-IFSA and Other Bank Surveys 97
5.2 Key Findings and Observations from the
Fifth Trade Finance Survey 114
6.1 Common Types of Trade Finance and the Risk for Exporters 119
10.1 Policy Update on Selected Countries and Multilateral Initiatives 189
19.1 Terms and Conditions of TFI Credit Products 325
19.2 IDB Trade Financing Increases Intraregional Transactions 330
20.1 Credit Insurance and How It Works 338
20.2 The Berne Union 354
Figures
O.1 Trade Fluctuations by Region, 2007–10 2
O.2 Trade Finance Arrangements, by Market Share 4
2.1 Regime where the Incentive Motive Dominates 49
2.2 Regime where the Liquidation Motive Dominates 51
2.3 Trade Credit Intensity, Wealth, and Creditor Protection 53
2.4 Input Tangibility, Wealth, and Creditor Protection 54
4.1 Extension of Trade Credit, by Country 75
4.2 Changes in the Extension of Trade Credit, by Country 76
4.3 Access to Bank and Supplier Financing, by Country 78
4.4 Trade Credit and Liquidity 83
5.1 Trade Finance Arrangements, by Market Share 90
5.2 Merchandise Trade Index, 2007 to mid-2010 92
5.3 Global Funding Pressure, 2008 to mid-2010 93
5.4 Three-Month LIBOR Spreads in Advanced Markets 94
5.5 External Debt Market Spreads in Emerging Markets,
2008 to mid-2010 95
5.6 Loans to Nonfinancial Firms in the Euro Area and
U.S., 2007 to mid-2010 95
5.7 U.S. Commercial Paper: Outstanding Accounts,
2008 to mid-2010 96
5.8 Overall Changes in Merchandise Exports and Trade Finance 100
5.9 Changes in Merchandise Exports and Trade Finance,
by Country Group 101
5.10 Estimated Composition of the Trade Finance Industry 102
5.11 Overall Change in Trade-Related Lending Guidelines,
Q4 CY09 vs. Q4 CY08 104
5.12 Ability to Satisfy “All Customer Needs” 106
5.13 Effect of “Recent Developments” on Pricing of
Trade Instruments 110
5.14 Change in Trade Instrument Pricing 111
5.15 Change in Probability of Default, 2007–09 113
viii Contents
[...]... 2: The Role of Trade Finance in the 2008–09 Trade Collapse The 2008 financial crisis and the ensuing trade collapse immediately prompted policy makers and analysts to link the two events: Trade dropped in part because of a lack of supply of trade finance Given the lack of data and the relative secure nature of trade finance, however, some analysts raised doubts about the prominent role of trade finance. .. limits on trade finance tightened during the crisis However, they also find that increases in the price of trade finance products did not stand out from those for other commercial bank products Their results suggest that factors other than trade finance chiefly the collapse of global demand and the decline in commodity prices—played a more important role in the 2008–09 trade collapse Nevertheless, increased... investment-bank surveys to gauge the impact of the financial crisis on trade finance availability and constraints The ICC surveys indicate that it became more difficult to raise money to finance trade in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse and that both the availability and the price of trade finance severed in late 2008 The surveys indicate that the supply of trade finance remained constrained... exacerbate the trade finance shortfall during the crisis and in the postcrisis environment? What Is Trade Finance, and Why Does It Matter? The global financial crisis demonstrated that trade finance is a broad concept that encompasses various products, mechanisms, and players When trade collapsed in the fall of 2008, trade finance rapidly became the focus of attention Foremost, the crisis illuminated the dearth... liquidity into the real economy in support of trade transactions However, because of the dearth of data on trade finance, they had no gauge to estimate the magnitude of the market gap or even to know whether trade finance was indeed a main factor behind the drop in trade It was also not clear whether governments’ intervention in favor of a specific segment of the financial system the trade finance market—was... of trade finance over two years This book assembles 23 contributions to tell the story of trade finance during the 2008–09 global economic crisis and to answer four main questions: 1 What do we know about the specifics and determinants of trade finance during financial crises, especially the role of interfirm trade credit versus bankintermediated trade finance? 2 Was the availability and cost of trade. .. parties with a comprehensive assessment of the role of trade finance in the 2008–09 great trade collapse (Baldwin 2009) and the subsequent role of governments and institutions to help restore trade finance markets The 1997–98 Asian crisis had already illustrated the critical role that trade finance plays during a financial crisis—especially its effects on trade but that crisis remained regionally... understand the root causes of the global crisis and to reach consensus on actions to address its immediate effects In the case of trade, a key question concerned the extent to which a drying up of trade finance caused the observed decline in trade flows There are different types of trade finance Banks offer a number of trade finance instruments that vary in terms of risk A large share of global trade finance. .. Financing The analysis of the link between interfirm trade credit and bank trade finance during the 2008–09 global crisis has been blurred by the fact that the financial crisis swiftly spilled over to the real economy and constrained firms’ cash reserves and revenues, putting additional pressure on their capacity to extend trade credit As such, both interfirm trade credit and bank trade finance dropped in the. .. demand to finance international trade operations, leaving a trade finance “gap” estimated at around $25 billion The liquidity problem spread from the United States and the European Union (EU) to developing countries’ markets As the secondary market dried up in late 2008, the trade finance gap reportedly increased to up to $300 billion In the midst of the crisis, these alarming developments were at the epicenter . Editors
-HDQĥ3LHUUH&KDXIIRXU0DULHP0DORXFKH
Trade Finance
during the
Great Trade
Collapse
Trade Finance
during the Great
Trade Collapse
Jean-Pierre Chauffour and Mariem Malouche
Editors
Trade. Global Perspectives in the Decline of Trade Finance 117
Jesse Mora and William Powers
v
7 The Role of Trade Finance in the U.S. Trade
Collapse: A Skeptic’s
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Xem thêm: Trade Finance during the Great Trade Collapse docx, Trade Finance during the Great Trade Collapse docx, O.2 Trade Finance Arrangements, by Market Share, 4 Input Tangibility, Wealth, and Creditor Protection, 9 Changes in Merchandise Exports and Trade Finance, by Country Group, 13 Effect of “Recent Developments” on Pricing of Trade Instruments, 8 Relative Declines in Exports, Export Insurance Exposure, and Trade Finance Debt, by Region, Q2 FY08 to Q2 FY09, 4 Severity of Export Constraints due to 2008–09 Crisis, by Country, 9 Export and Import Trade Finance, Ghana and Kenya, 2 Medium- to Long-Term Export Credit Insurance, 1 Summary Statistics, Q2 2008–Q2 2009, 1 EU Countries’ State Aid to the Short-Term Export Credit Insurance Market, 9 Financial Dependence, Exporter Characteristics, and Recovery, 15A.1 Governments and Multilateral Institutions that Took Trade Finance Measures, as of April 2009, 4 ST Claims Paid in Selected Emerging Markets, by Destination Country, 5 Shares of MLT Exports Covered, 2005–09, by Destination Region