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RELIABILITY, MAINTAINABILITY AND RISK
Also by the same author
Reliability Engineering, Pitman, 1972
Maintainability Engineering, Pitman, 1973 (with A. H. Babb)
Statistics Workshop, Technis, 1974, 1991
Achieving Quality Software, Chapman & Hall, 1995
Quality Procedures for Hardware and Software, Elsevier, 1990 (with J. S. Edge)
Reliability, Maintainability
and Risk
Practical methods for engineers
Sixth Edition
Dr David J Smith
BSc, PhD, CEng, FIEE, FIQA, HonFSaRS, MIGasE
OXFORD AUCKLAND BOSTON JOHANNESBURG MELBOURNE NEW DELHI
Butterworth-Heinemann
Linacre House, Jordan Hill, Oxford OX2 8DP
225 Wildwood Avenue, Woburn, MA 01801-2041
A division of Reed Educational and Professional Publishing Ltd
A member of the Reed Elsevier group plc
First published by Macmillan Education Ltd 1981
Second edition 1985
Third edition 1988
Fourth edition published by Butterworth-Heinemann Ltd 1993
Reprinted 1994, 1996
Fifth edition 1997
Reprinted with revisions 1999
Sixth edition 2001
© David J. Smith 1993, 1997, 2001
All rights reserved. No part of this publication
may be reproduced in any material form (including
photocopying or storing in any medium by electronic
means and whether or not transiently or incidentally
to some other use of this publication) without the
written permission of the copyright holder except in
accordance with the provisions of the Copyright,
Designs and Patents Act 1988 or under the terms of a
licence issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd,
90 Tottenham Court Road, London, England W1P 9HE.
Applications for the copyright holder’s written permission
to reproduce any part of this publication should be addressed
to the publishers
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Smith, David J. (David John), 1943 June 22–
Reliability, maintainability and risk. – 6th ed.
1 Reliability (Engineering) 2 Risk assessment
I Title
620'.00452
Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication Data
Smith, David John, 1943–
Reliability, maintainability, and risk: practical methods for
engineers/David J Smith. – 6th ed.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0 7506 5168 7
1 Reliability (Engineering) 2 Maintainability (Engineering)
3 Engineering design I Title.
TA169.S64 2001
620'.00452–dc21 00–049380
ISBN 0 7506 5168 7
Composition by Genesis Typesetting, Laser Quay, Rochester, Kent
Printed and bound in Great Britain by Antony Rowe, Chippenham, Wiltshire
Preface
Acknowledgements
Part One Understanding Reliability Parameters and
Costs
1 The history of reliability and safety technology 1
1.1 FAILURE DATA 1
1.2 HAZARDOUS FAILURES 4
1.3 RELIABILITY AND RISK PREDICTION 5
1.4 ACHIEVING RELIABILITY AND SAFETY-INTEGRITY 6
1.5 THE RAMS-CYCLE 7
1.6 CONTRACTUAL PRESSURES 9
2 Understanding terms and jargon
2.1 DEFINING FAILURE AND FAILURE MODES
2.2 FAILURE RATE AND MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURES 12
2.3 INTERRELATIONSHIPS OF TERMS 14
2.4 THE BATHTUB DISTRIBUTION 16
2.5 DOWN TIME AND REPAIR TIME 17
2.6 AVAILABILITY 20
2.7 HAZARD AND RISK-RELATED TERMS 20
2.8 CHOOSING THE APPROPRIATE PARAMETER 21
EXERCISES 22
3 A cost-effective approach to quality, reliability and safety
3.1 THE COST OF QUALITY
3.2 RELIABILITY AND COST 26
3.3 COSTS AND SAFETY 29
Part Two Interpreting Failure Rates
4 Realistic failure rates and prediction confidence
4.1 DATA ACCURACY
4.2 SOURCES OF DATA 37
4.3 DATA RANGES 41
4.4 CONFIDENCE LIMITS OF PREDICTION 44
4.5 OVERALL CONCLUSIONS 46
5 Interpreting data and demonstrating reliability
5.1 THE FOUR CASES
5.2 INFERENCE AND CONFIDENCE LEVELS
5.3 THE CHI-SQUARE TEST 49
5.4 DOUBLE-SIDED CONFIDENCE LIMITS 50
5.5 SUMMARIZING THE CHI-SQUARE TEST 51
5.6 RELIABILITY DEMONSTRATION 52
5.7 SEQUENTIAL TESTING 56
5.8 SETTING UP DEMONSTRATION TESTS 57
EXERCISES 57
6 Variable failure rates and probability plotting
6.1 THE WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION
6.2 USING THE WEIBULL METHOD 60
6.3 MORE COMPLEX CASES OF THE WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION 67
6.4 CONTINUOUS PROCESSES 68
EXERCISES 69
Part Three Predicting Reliability and Risk
7 Essential reliability theory
7.1 WHY PREDICT RAMS?
7.2 PROBABILITY THEORY
7.3 RELIABILITY OF SERIES SYSTEMS 76
7.4 REDUNDANCY RULES 77
7.5 GENERAL FEATURES OF REDUNDANCY 83
EXERCISES 86
8 Methods of modelling
8.1 BLOCK DIAGRAM AND MARKOV ANALYSIS
8.2 COMMON CAUSE (DEPENDENT) FAILURE 98
8.3 FAULT TREE ANALYSIS 103
8.4 EVENT TREE DIAGRAMS 110
9 Quantifying the reliability models
9.1 THE RELIABILITY PREDICTION METHOD
9.2 ALLOWING FOR DIAGNOSTIC INTERVALS 115
9.3 FMEA (FAILURE MODE AND EFFECT ANALYSIS) 117
9.4 HUMAN FACTORS 118
9.5 SIMULATION 123
9.6 COMPARING PREDICTIONS WITH TARGETS 126
EXERCISES 127
10 Risk assessment (QRA)
10.1 FREQUENCY AND CONSEQUENCE
10.2 PERCEPTION OF RISK AND ALARP 129
10.3 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION 130
10.4 FACTORS TO QUANTIFY 135
Part Four Achieving Reliability and Maintainability
11 Design and assurance techniques
11.1 SPECIFYING AND ALLOCATING THE REQUIREMENT
11.2 STRESS ANALYSIS 145
11.3 ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS PROTECTION 148
11.4 FAILURE MECHANISMS 148
11.5 COMPLEXITY AND PARTS 150
11.6 BURN-IN AND SCREENING 153
11.7 MAINTENANCE STRATEGIES 154
12 Design review and test
12.1 REVIEW TECHNIQUES
12.2 CATEGORIES OF TESTING 156
12.3 RELIABILITY GROWTH MODELLING 160
EXERCISES 163
13 Field data collection and feedback
13.1 REASONS FOR DATA COLLECTION
13.2 INFORMATION AND DIFFICULTIES
13.3 TIMES TO FAILURE 165
13.4 SPREADSHEETS AND DATABASES 166
13.5 BEST PRACTICE AND RECOMMENDATIONS 168
13.6 ANALYSIS AND PRESENTATION OF RESULTS 169
13.7 EXAMPLES OF FAILURE REPORT FORMS 170
14 Factors influencing down time
14.1 KEY DESIGN AREAS
14.2 MAINTENANCE STRATEGIES AND HANDBOOKS 180
15 Predicting and demonstrating repair times
15.1 PREDICTION METHODS
15.2 DEMONSTRATION PLANS 201
16 Quantified reliability centred maintenance
16.1 WHAT IS QRCM?
16.2 THE QRCM DECISION PROCESS 206
16.3 OPTIMUM REPLACEMENT (DISCARD) 207
16.4 OPTIMUM SPARES 209
16.4 OPTIMUM PROOF-TEST 210
16.6 CONDITION MONITORING 211
17 Software quality/reliability
17.1 PROGRAMMABLE DEVICES
17.2 SOFTWARE FAILURES 214
17.3 SOFTWARE FAILURE MODELLING 215
17.4 SOFTWARE QUALITY ASSURANCE 217
17.5 MODERN/FORMAL METHODS 223
17.6 SOFTWARE CHECKLISTS 226
Part Five Legal, Management and Safety
Considerations
18 Project management
18.1 SETTING OBJECTIVES AND SPECIFICATIONS
18.2 PLANNING, FEASIBILITY AND ALLOCATION 234
18.3 PROGRAMME ACTIVITIES 234
18.4 RESPONSIBILITIES 237
18.5 STANDARDS AND GUIDANCE DOCUMENTS 237
19 Contract clauses and their pitfalls
19.1 ESSENTIAL AREAS
19.2 OTHER AREAS 241
19.3 PITFALLS 242
19.4 PENALTIES 244
19.5 SUBCONTRACTED RELIABILITY ASSESSMENTS 246
19.6 EXAMPLE 247
20 Product liability and safety legislation
20.1 THE GENERAL SITUATION
20.2 STRICT LIABILITY 249
20.3 THE CONSUMER PROTECTION ACT 1987 250
20.4 HEALTH AND SAFETY AT WORK ACT 1974 251
20.5 INSURANCE AND PRODUCT RECALL 252
21 Major incident legislation
21.1 HISTORY OF MAJOR INCIDENTS
21.2 DEVELOPMENT OF MAJOR INCIDENT LEGISLATION 255
21.3 CIMAH SAFETY REPORTS 256
21.4 OFFSHORE SAFETY CASES 259
21.5 PROBLEM AREAS 261
21.6 THE COMAH DIRECTIVE (1999) 262
22 Integrity of safety-related systems
22.1 SAFETY-RELATED OR SAFETY-CRITICAL?
22.2 SAFETY-INTEGRITY LEVELS (SILs) 264
22.3 PROGRAMMABLE ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS (PESs) 266
22.4 CURRENT GUIDANCE 268
22.5 ACCREDITATION AND CONFORMITY OF ASSESSMENT 272
23 A case study: The Datamet Project
23.1 INTRODUCTION
23.2 THE DATAMET CONCEPT
23.3 FORMATION OF THE PROJECT GROUP 277
23.4 RELIABILITY REQUIREMENTS 278
23.5 FIRST DESIGN REVIEW 279
23.6 DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT 281
23.7 SYNDICATE STUDY 282
23.8 HINTS 282
Appendix 1 Glossary
A1 TERMS RELATED TO FAILURE
A2 RELIABILITY TERMS 285
A3 MAINTAINABILITY TERMS 286
A4 TERMS ASSOCIATED WITH SOFTWARE 287
A5 TERMS RELATED TO SAFETY 289
A6 MISCELLANEOUS TERMS 290
Appendix 2 Percentage points of the Chi- square
distribution
Appendix 3 Microelectronics failure rates
Appendix 4 General failure rates
Appendix 5 Failure mode percentages
Appendix 6 Human error rates
Appendix 7 Fatality rates
Appendix 8 Answers to exercises
Appendix 9 Bibliography
BOOKS
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
STANDARDS AND GUIDELINES
JOURNALS
Appendix 10 Scoring criteria for BETAPLUS
common cause model
1 CHECKLIST AND SCORING FOR EQUIPMENT
CONTAINING PROGRAMMABLE ELECTRONICS
2 CHECKLIST AND SCORING FOR
NON-PROGRAMMABLE EQUIPMENT
Appendix 11 Example of HAZOP
EQUIPMENT DETAILS
HAZOP WORKSHEETS
POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES
Appendix 12 HAZID checklist
Index
[...]... After three editions Reliability, Maintainability in Perspective became Reliability, Maintainability and Risk and has now, after just 20 years, reached its 6th edition In such a fast moving subject, the time has come, yet again, to expand and update the material particularly with the results of my recent studies into common cause failure and into the correlation between predicted and achieved field reliability... the craftsman/ manufacturer and less determined by the ‘combination’ of part reliabilities Nevertheless, mass production of standard mechanical parts has been the case since early in this century Under these circumstances defective items can be identified readily, by means of 4 Reliability, Maintainability and Risk inspection and test, during the manufacturing process, and it is possible to control... activities and a typical design-cycle The top portion shows the specification and feasibility stages of design leading to conceptual engineering and then to detailed design 8 Reliability, Maintainability and Risk Figure 1.2 RAMS-Cycle model RAMS targets should be included in the requirements specification as project or contractual requirements which can include both assessment of the design and demonstration... tender and other contractual documents Mean Times Between Failure, repair times and availabilities, for both cost- and safety-related failure modes, are specified and quantified 10 Reliability, Maintainability and Risk There are problems in such contractual relationships arising from: Ambiguity of definition Hidden statistical risks Inadequate coverage of the requirements Unrealistic requirements Unmeasurable... (MDT, MTTR) There is frequently confusion between the two and it is important to understand the difference Down time, or outage, is the period during which equipment is in the failed state A formal 18 Reliability, Maintainability and Risk Table 2.2 Known as Decreasing failure rate Infant mortality Burn-in Early failures Usually related to manufacture and QA, e.g welds, joints, connections, wraps, dirt,... important that terms are fully understood before they are used and if this is achieved by defining them for specific situations, then so much the better The danger in specifying that all terms shall be defined by 22 Reliability, Maintainability and Risk a given published standard is that each person assumes that he or she knows the meaning of each term and these are not read or discussed until a dispute arises... setting up a reliability model is far more valuable than the numerical outcome 6 Reliability, Maintainability and Risk Figure 1.1 Figure 1.1 illustrates the problem of matching a reliability or risk prediction to the eventual field performance In practice, prediction addresses the component-based ‘design reliability’, and it is necessary to take account of the additional factors when assessing the... of failure rate and repair/down time which determines unavailability The design and operating features which influence down time are also taken into account in this book Achieving reliability, safety and maintainability results from activities in three main areas: 1 Design: Reduction in complexity Duplication to provide fault tolerance Derating of stress factors Qualification testing and design review... and standards 3 Field use: Adequate operating and maintenance instructions Feedback of field failure information Replacement and spares strategies (e.g early replacement of items with a known wearout characteristic) It is much more difficult, and expensive, to add reliability/safety after the design stage The quantified parameters, dealt with in Chapter 2, must be part of the design specification and. .. for permission to make use of examples from their guidance document (SR/24, Risk Assessment Techniques) ITT Europe for permission to reproduce their failure report form and the US Department of Defense for permission to quote from MIL Handbooks Part One Understanding Reliability Parameters and Costs 1 The history of reliability and safety technology Safety/Reliability engineering has not developed as . assessment.
4 Reliability, Maintainability and Risk
1.3 RELIABILITY AND RISK PREDICTION
System modelling, by means of failure mode analysis and fault tree.
Preface
After three editions Reliability, Maintainability in Perspective became Reliability, Main-
tainability and Risk and has now, after just 20 years,
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