[...]... piqued your interest in how mathematics is used (or can be used) to make decisions in sports and sports gambling, this book is for you I hope when you finish reading the book you will love math almost as much as you love sports To date there has been no book that explains how the people running Major League Baseball, basketball, and football teams and Las Vegas sports bookies use math The goal of Mathletics. .. shows how to use a One Way Data Table to determine how the accuracy of (2) for predicting team winning percentage depends on the value of exp To illustrate, let’s show how to use a One Way Data Table to determine how varying exp from 1 to 3 changes the average error in predicting a MLB team’s winning percentage (see figure 1.2) Step 1 We begin by entering the possible values of exp (1, 1.1, 3) in. .. financially How can math determine the true probability of a team winning a game, winning the NCAA tournament, or just covering the point spread? Maybe you think the NBA could have used math to spot Tim Donaghy’s game fixing before being informed about it by the FBI This book will show you how a statistical analysis would have “red flagged” Donaghy as a potential fixer If Moneyball or day-to-day sports viewing... http://www.waynewinston.edu) ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to acknowledge George Nemhauser of Georgia Tech, Michael Magazine of the University of Cincinnati, and an anonymous reviewer for their extremely helpful suggestions Most of all, I would like to recognize my best friend and sports handicapper, Jeff Sagarin My discussions with Jeff about sports and mathematics have always been stimulating, and this book... that showed that NFL teams should rarely punt on fourth down How did Romer use mathematics to come up with his controversial conclusion? You might have heard how Mark Cuban used math models (and his incredible business savvy) to revitalize the moribund Dallas Mavericks franchise What mathematical models does Cuban use to evaluate NBA players and lineups? Maybe you bet once in a while on NFL games and. .. predicted winning percentages of the Pythagorean Theorem were off by an average of 2% per team (cell J1) Instead of blindly assuming winning percentage can be approximated by using the square of the scoring ratio, perhaps we should try a formula to predict winning percentage, such as R exp R exp ϩ1 (2) If we vary exp (exponent) in (2) we can make (2) better fit the actual dependence of winning percentage... Mathletics is to demonstrate how simple xii PREFACE arithmetic, probability theory, and statistics can be combined with a large dose of common sense to better evaluate players and game strategy in America’s major sports I will also show how math can be used to rank sports teams and evaluate sports bets Throughout the book you will see references to Excel files (e.g., Standings.xls) These files may be... by 1.1% in predicting the percentage of games won by the Tigers in 2006 For each team define error in winning percentage prediction as actual winning percentage minus predicted winning percentage For example, for the 2006 Arizona Diamondbacks (ARI), error ϭ 469Ϫ.490 ϭ Ϫ.021 and for the 2006 Boston Red Sox (BOS), error ϭ 531Ϫ.497 ϭ 034 A positive A 1 2 B C D E F G H I J MAD = 0.020 Runs Runs Scoring Predicted... Rebounding Percentage On-Base Plus Slugging Pitcher Abuse Points Penalty Differential Player Efficiency Rating Put Out Points over Replacement Player Pressure Touchdown Passing Yards Per Attempt Quarterback Return Touchdown Range Factor Ratings Percentage Index R-Squared Value Rushing Yards Per Attempt Sacrifice Bunt Spatial Aggregate Fielding Evaluation Number of total points earned by player during a... predicted win percentage is always between 0 and 1 • An increase in runs scored increases predicted win percentage • A decrease in runs allowed increases predicted win percentage Consider a right triangle with a hypotenuse (the longest side) of length c and two other sides of lengths a and b Recall from high school geometry that the Pythagorean Theorem states that a triangle is a right triangle if and only . Cataloging -in- Publication Data Winston, Wayne L. Mathletics : how gamblers, managers, and sports enthusiasts use mathematics in baseball, basketball, and football. alt="" MATHLETICS This page intentionally left blank MATHLETICS How Gamblers, Managers, and Sports Enthusiasts Use Mathematics in Baseball, Basketball, and