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Compiled by the Democracy and Governance Research Programme,
Human Sciences Research Council
First published in South Africa by HSRC Press
Private Bag X9182, Cape Town, 8000, South Africa
www.hsrcpress.ac.za
Published in the rest of the world by Michigan State University Press
East Lansing, Michigan, 48823-5202, United States of America
© 2005 Human Sciences Research Council
First published 2005
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means,
including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage
or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Copy editing by Vaun Cornell
Typeset by Christabel Hardacre
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Cover photograph by Yassir Booley
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Contents
List of tables vi
List of figures viii
Foreword xi
Mark Orkin
Acronyms xiii
Introduction: President Mbeki’s second term: opening the golden door? xix
John Daniel, Roger Southall and Jessica Lutchman
Part I: Politics
Introduction 3
1 Race and identity in the nation 9
Zimitri Erasmus
2 The state of parties post-election 2004: ANC dominance and
opposition enfeeblement 34
Roger Southall and John Daniel
3 Rural governance and citizenship in post-1994 South Africa:
democracy compromised? 58
Lungisile Ntsebeza
4 The state of corruption and accountability 86
Sam Sole
5 The state of the public service 112
Vino Naidoo
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Part II: Society
Introduction 137
6 The state of crime and policing 144
Ted Leggett
7 The state of the military 117
Len Le Roux and Henri Boshoff
8 The state of South Africa’s schools 210
Linda Chisholm
9 HIV/AIDS: finding ways to contain the pandemic 227
Tim Quinlan and Sarah Willan
10 Multiple communities: Muslims in post-apartheid South Africa 252
Goolam Vahed and Shamil Jeppie
11 The state of the art(s) 287
Lynn Maree
12 The state of the archives and access to information 313
Seán Morrow and Luvuyo Wotshela
13 A virtuous circle? Gender equality and representation in
South Africa 336
Shireen Hassim
Part III: Economy
Introduction 363
14 An overview of the South African economy 367
Stephen Gelb
15 Who owns South Africa: an analysis of state and private
ownership patterns 401
Reg Rumney
16 The state of employment 423
Miriam Altman
17 Black empowerment and corporate capital 455
Roger Southall
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18 ‘Empty stomachs, empty pockets’: poverty and inequality
in post-apartheid South Africa 479
Benjamin Roberts
19 A better life for all? Service delivery and poverty alleviation 511
David Hemson and Kwame Owusu-Ampomah
Part IV: South Africa in Africa
Introduction 541
20 South Africa and Nigeria: two unequal centres in a periphery 544
John Daniel, Jessica Lutchman and Sanusha Naidu
21 South Africa’s quiet diplomacy: the case of Zimbabwe 569
Lloyd M Sachikonye
Contributors 586
Index 589
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List of tables
Table 2.1 Outcome of the national elections, 1994, 1999 and 2004 38
Table 5.1 Public service growth in personnel
(including apartheid period) 114
Table 5.2 Comparative economic figures for white areas and black
homelands, 1985 117
Table 7.1 Expenditure estimates and summarised outputs for DoD
programmes for the medium-term expenditure framework 2004–07
(R thousands) 184
Table 7.2 Itemised expenditure for DoD, MTEF 2004–07 (R thousands) 184
Table 7.3 Numbers of members of forces integrated into SANDF 187
Table 7.4 Racial composition of the SANDF, 1994, 1998, 2003 188
Table 7.5 Gender composition of SANDF, 1994, 1998, 2003 188
Table 7.6 Approved force design of SANDF 192
Table 8.1 Provincial education expenditure per programme (R millions) 209
Table 8.2 Expenditure per learner by province (Rand) 209
Table 8.3 Enrolment in educator training at universities and technikons, 2000
and 2001 214
Table 8.4 Changing union membership, 1999– 2002 214
Table 8.5 Number of teachers in schools, per province 223
Table 9.1 Summary of HIV/AIDS-specific allocations in the
national Budget 233
Table 9.2 Overall HIV prevalence (extrapolated from study sample)
by province, South Africa 2002 240
Table 9. 3 Provincial HIV prevalence, antenatal clinic attendees, South Africa
1994–2002 241
Table 9.4 Extrapolation of HIV prevalence amongst antenatal clinic attendees
to the general population, 2000–02 241
Table 9.5 Cost of HIV to three companies in KwaZulu-Natal,
South Africa 243
vi
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Table 10.1 Muslim population per province and race 253
Table 14.1 Government budget: size and distribution 371
Table 14.2 Decomposition of aggregate demand, 1989–2003 392
Table 14.3 Sectoral output shares, 1995 prices 395
Table 14.4 Percentage shares of merchandise exports, by sector 396
Table 16.1 Unemployment rates by region and gender, 2003 (percentages) 424
Table 16.2 Unemployment trends (percentages) 425
Table 16.3 Summary of net employment creation (thousands) 434
Table 16.4 Female earnings as a percentage of male earnings,
formal sector 2002 438
Table 16.5 Mean monthly incomes 440
Table 16.6 Unionisation 443
Table 16.7 Average year-on-year growth rates of productivity
and real wages 444
Table 18.1 Subjective assessment of food insecurity in South African
households by province and area of residence, 1995–2002
(percentage) 491
Table 18.2 Annual per capita income by race group (percentage of
white level) 494
Table 18.3 Gini coefficients by population group using per capita income 495
Table 18.4 Decomposition of national income by income source and poverty
status (percentage share in overall Gini) 496
Table 19.1 Forms of household sanitation 1995 and 2001 (percentage) 521
Table 19.2 Main reason for interruption of water service for more than one day
by monthly household income 526
Table 19.3 Human Development Index and life expectancy trends 531
Table 20.1 Rand value of South African exports by continent/region,
2000–03 547
Table 20.2 South Africa’s top five African trading partners (R billions) 549
Table 20.3 South African investments in Africa by region and investment type,
value in R millions and by market share, 1997–2001 551
Table 20.4 African investments by region in South Africa, value in
R millions and by market share, 1997–2001 552
Table 20.5 Major South African companies in other African countries by sector
(selected companies) 554
vii
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List of figures
Figure 2.1 Comparison of 1994, 1999 and 2004 elections by votes 39
Figure 2.2 Voter registration and valid votes for 1994, 1999 and 2004
elections 39
Figure 5.1 Comparative racial representation within central public
service 115
Figure 5.2 Profile of public service, 2003 118
Figure 5.3 Racial composition of South African public service, 2003 119
Figure 5.4 Senior managers by race and salary level 119
Figure 5.5 Senior managers by provincial administration and national
departments 121
Figure 6.1 Percentage change in crime rates between 1994–95 and
2002–03 151
Figure 7.1 Structure of the Department of Defence 181
Figure 9.1 HIV prevalence rate by skill level in South Africa 244
Figure 14.1 Fiscal balances as share of GDP, 1990–2003 373
Figure 14.2 Exchange rate volatility, 1982–2003, percentage change in
effective rates, quarterly 377
Figure 14.3 Capital inflows, quarterly, 1990–2003 379
Figure 14.4 Effective exchange rate indices, monthly 1990–2003,
1995=100 380
Figure 14.5 Interest rates and inflation, 1983–2003 381
Figure 14.6 GDP growth, consumption growth and changes in capital
formation, 1983–2003 384
Figure 14.7 Investment as share of GDP, 1982–2003 385
Figure 14.8 National savings as share of GDP, 1982–2003 388
Figure 14.9 Balance of payments, 1982–2003 390
viii
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ix
Figure 14.10 Trade components as share of GDP, 1982–2003 391
Figure 16.1 GDP and unemployment 426
Figure 16.2 Unemployment by race 426
Figure 16.3 Comparing strict and broad unemployment 427
Figure 16.4 Number of unemployed by age 248
Figure 16.5 Employment and labour force 248
Figure 16.6 ‘Not working’, as a percentage of working age population,
by race 429
Figure 16.7 GDP and employment growth – comparing formal non-
agricultural private sector employment in the LFS and SEE 431
Figure 16.8 Employment in formal and non-formal sectors 432
Figure 16.9 Change in formal employment 433
Figure 16.10 Distribution of employment, broad sectors 433
Figure 16.11 Formal employment by skill level 435
Figure 16.12 Proportion of labour force, productive and unproductive 437
Figure 16.13 Wage trends by skill level in the formal sector, 2000 prices 437
Figure 16.14 Formal sector workers with written contract, by skill category 439
Figure 16.15 Formal sector workers with pension plan, by skill category 439
Figure 16.16 Earnings in the formal and informal sector, by level of
education, 2002 441
Figure 18.1 Incidence of poverty by province (percentage of households) 487
Figure 18.2 Change in employment and economically active population
by race and gender, 1995–99 (percentage) 489
Figure 18.3 Real annual per capita income by race group, 1970–2000
(constant 2000 Rands) 494
Figure 19.1 Progress over the period, water delivery, 1993–2003 519
Figure 19.2 Progress over the period, sanitation, 1993–2003 520
Figure 19.3 Consumption of drinking water 524
Figure 19.4 Access to piped water by household income 524
Figure 19.5 Access to sanitation and household income 525
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x
Figure 20.1 Market share of South Africa’s export trade by continent/region,
2003 547
Figure 20.2 Market share of South Africa’s import trade by continent/region,
2003 548
Figure 20.3 South Africa’s trade balances by continent/region, 2003 548
Figure 20.4 South Africa’s investment partners in Africa, 2002 552
Figure 20.5 South Africa’s trade relations with Nigeria, 1992–2003 560
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[...]... Department of Arts and Culture, South Africa Department of Arts, Culture, Science and Technology, South Africa Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, South Africa Department of Foreign Affairs, South Africa Director General Digital Imaging Project of South Africa Department of Land Affairs, South Africa Department of Defence, South Africa Department of Education Department of Health, South Africa. .. Foreword State of the Nation: South Africa 2004–2005 is the second issue of what, last year, the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) announced would become an annual set of original essays dedicated to reviewing developments in South Africa Recalling the format of the South African Review that was edited by Glenn Moss and others in the 1980s, and drawing inspiration from the presidential State of the. .. presidential speeches on The State of the Nation’ The first was delivered on 6 February at the beginning of the last session of the outgoing Parliament; the second on 21 May at the opening of the first session of the new (Mbeki 2004a, 2004b) They were significantly different in style and content The first celebrated achievement, reflecting Mbeki the seer, the visionary and the poet; the second recorded... TRC UCDP UCT UDM UDW UMNO UN UNDP Southern African Development Community South African Democracy Education Trust South African Defence Force South African Democratic Teachers’ Union South African Human Rights Commission South African Law Commission South African Labour Development Research Unit South African Migration Project South African National AIDS Council South African National Defence Force Suid... Africa Department of Home Affairs, South Africa Department of Labour, South Africa Department of Social Development, South Africa Department of Safety and Security, South Africa Democratic Party Department of Provincial and Local Government, South Africa Development Policy Research Unit Department of Public Service and Administration, South Africa Democratic Republic of the Congo Department of Sport, Arts... rise to the substantial growth of the Malay middle class Given also that by 1990 the share of bumiputera equity holdings amounted to over 20 per cent of the total, the attractions of the Malaysian model to the ANC are obvious (Southall 1997) Of course, there are major differences between the historical and temporal locations of the South African and Malaysian developmental experiences Indeed, there are... www.hsrcpress.ac.za The end of South Africa s first decade of democracy was concurrent with the holding of a third general election, which took place on April 14 The expected return of the ANC to power would also see the beginning of Thabo Mbeki’s second, and under the Constitution, his concluding term as president These were all key factors which rendered 2004 a year of not just the customary one but of two presidential... delivered his own first State of the Nation’ speech in 1994, South African democracy had achieved the frontiers of human fulfillment, and the continuous extension of the frontiers of freedom’ Borrowing from the ten-year review, Mbeki trumpeted the official statistics of achievement Between 1994 and 2004, over 1.9 million housing subsidies had been provided and 1.6 million houses built for the poor; more than... significant change, perhaps even a paradigm shift, in the direction of public policy There has been a careful review by government of the experiences of the first ten years of democracy; there is a clear indication of a reconsideration of GEAR; there has been an election campaign in which the issues of equality and poverty ranked high upon the agenda; the ANC was returned with an increased majority, and... as Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Taiwan and South Korea South Africa s invitation to the second of these gatherings was viewed as public testimony to the ANC’s socialdemocratic inclinations The third way is a descendant of the ‘revisionist socialism’ of the early twentieth century Its guiding principles have been the realisation of the classic goals of social democracy (such as social equality, pluralism, . 6 February at the beginning of the last session of the outgoing
Parliament; the second on 21 May at the opening of the first session of the
new (Mbeki. Affairs, South Africa
DoD Department of Defence, South Africa
DoE Department of Education
DoH Department of Health, South Africa
DoHA Department of Home
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