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RAND mono- graphs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Military Enlistment of Hispanic Youth Obstacles and Opportunities Beth J. Asch, Christopher Buck, Jacob Alex Klerman, Meredith Kleykamp, David S. Loughran NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2009 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2009 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Military enlistment of Hispanic youth : obstacles and opportunities / Beth J. Asch [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4572-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. United States—Armed Forces—Hispanic Americans. 2. Recruiting and enlistment. I. Asch, Beth J. UB418.H57M55 2009 355.2'236208968073—dc22 2009050790 iii Preface An ongoing concern of Congress, the Department of Defense (DoD), and the armed services is whether the military represents U.S. society at large. An implicit goal is that diversity in the armed services should approximate the diversity of the general population. A key aspect of that diversity is the representation of Hispanics. Furthermore, when military recruiting becomes more challenging, policymakers need to ensure that policies are in place to effectively enlist youth in key demographic groups, such as Hispanics. Hispanics are a growing segment of the youth population, yet they have historically been underrepresented among military recruits. A widely cited reason is Hispanics’ below-average rate of graduation from high school, combined with the services’ preference for recruits with high school diplomas. But other, less studied, factors may also contribute. Such factors might include lack of language proficiency as reflected in aptitude test scores; fertility choices; health factors, such as obesity; and involvement in risky activities, such as the use of illegal drugs. ese factors, to the extent they are present in the Hispanic population, could adversely affect the services’ ability to meet their enlistment standards. Our project, “Hispanic Youth in the U.S. and the Factors Affecting eir Enlistment,” analyzed the factors that lead to the underrepresentation of Hispanic youth among military enlistments. To help policymakers evaluate the feasibility of improving Hispanic enlistments by recruiting more intensively from among the population that is qualified for service and the implications of recruiting Hispanics who are less qualified, we also analyzed both the nonmili- tary opportunities available to qualified Hispanic youth and the consequences of recruiting less-qualified Hispanic youth. is report should be of interest to policymakers and researchers concerned about social representation in the military, opportunities for Hispanic youth, and military recruiting policies. is research was conducted for the Defense Human Resources Activity and for the Office of Accession Policy, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readi- ness. is study was conducted in the Forces and Policy Resources Center of RAND’s National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. Comments are welcome and may be addressed to Beth Asch at Beth_Asch@rand.org. For more information on RAND’s Forces and Policy Resources Center, contact the Direc- tor, James Hosek. He can be reached by email at James_Hosek@rand.org; by phone at 310- 393-0411, extension 7183; or by mail at RAND, 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, California 90407-2138. More information about RAND is available at www.rand.org. v Contents Preface iii Figures ix Tables xi Summary xv Acknowledgments xxv Abbreviations xxvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction: Hispanic Enlistments in Perspective 1 Enlistment Standards 4 Organization of the Report 5 CHAPTER TWO Overview of Service Enlistment Standards 7 Waivers 7 Enlistment Standards 8 Age 8 Citizenship 10 Number of Dependents 11 Financial Screening 11 Education 12 Aptitude 13 Moral Character 14 Substance Use 14 Language Proficiency 15 Homosexual Conduct 16 Height and Weight Standards 16 Strength Requirements 18 Medical Screening 18 CHAPTER THREE Enlistment Qualifications 21 Data 21 Caveats 22 Organization 23 Hispanics in the Census and NLSY97 23 vi Military Enlistment of Hispanic Youth: Obstacles and Opportunities AFQT 27 Weight 34 Number of Dependents 38 Substance Abuse and Illegal Activity 38 e Cumulative Effect of Enlistment Standards 41 Conclusions 49 CHAPTER FOUR Health Obstacles to the Enlistment of Hispanic Youth 51 Previous Research on Hispanic Health 51 Citizenship and National Orgin 52 Data 53 Enlistment Standards and Measurement Strategy 53 Measurement of Health Conditions 53 Approach 54 Results 55 Discussion 61 Summary of Descriptive Results 62 Summary of Findings and Conclusions 63 CHAPTER FIVE Analysis of Hispanic Military Career Outcomes 65 Conceptual Framework 66 Early Attrition and Promotion 66 Retention 66 Past Studies 67 Data 68 Career Outcomes for Hispanics Versus Other Races and Ethnicities 69 Linear Regression Methodology 71 Linear Regression Results 73 Adjusted Versus Raw Outcomes, by Race and Ethnicity 73 Effects of Entry Standard Characteristics on Outcomes, by Race and Ethnicity 75 Summary 85 CHAPTER SIX Increasing Hispanic Enlistments: Evaluating Education and Career Choices 87 High School Dropouts and Category IV–V Youth 89 High School Graduates, Category IIIA–IIIB 93 High School Graduates, Category I–II 109 Conclusions 115 CHAPTER SEVEN Policy Implications 117 Contents vii APPENDIXES A. Detailed Information on Enlistment Standards 121 B. Service Waiver Policy 169 C. Estimates of Prevalence of Health Conditions, by Race and Ethnicity 177 D. Tests of Statistical Significance in Medical Disqualification Rates 181 References 189 [...]... black enlistments were 14.1 percent of Army enlistments in 1971 and 14.2 percent of all DoD enlistments (Binkin and Eitelberg, 1982), they had risen dramatically to 23.2 percent for the Army and 22.8 percent for all DoD by 1975, the second full year of the AVF By 1979, black enlistments had reached 36.1 percent of Army enlistments and 36.7 percent of DoD enlistments DoD data reveal that Hispanic enlistments... result of this change, agencies—including the Department of Defense—must offer individuals the opportunity to select one or more races when reporting race, and the categories for ethnicity must include Hispanic or “Latino” and “Not Hispanic or Latino.” In this report, the term Hispanic is used broadly to encompass those of Hispanic and Latino descent xv xvi Military Enlistment of Hispanic Youth: ... 186 186 186 186 187 Summary Hispanics are underrepresented among military recruits In 2007, Hispanics made up 17.0 percent of the general population (ages 18 to 40) but only 11.4 percent of Army enlistment contracts and 15 percent of Navy enlistment contracts While the trend is upward (in 1994, 6.6 percent of Army contracts and 8.9 percent of Navy contracts were Hispanic) ,1 Hispanics are still underrepresented... other factors may be at play Hispanic youth may face greater challenges in meeting one or more of the military s enlistment standards The services screen applicants in terms of education, aptitude, health, moral character, and other factors Insofar as Hispanic youth differ from other groups in terms of these factors, they will be disqualified at different rates 1 The figures on enlistments are based on the... x Military Enlistment of Hispanic Youth: Obstacles and Opportunities 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.10 6.11 6.12 6.13 6.14 6.15 6.16 6.17 Percentage of Males Failing to Meet Weight Standards of at Least One Branch 56 Percentage of Females Failing to Meet Weight Standards of at Least One Branch 56 Percentage of Males Failing to Meet Military. .. examine the effects of relaxing standards on military performance, we consider the downstream performance of military entrants who vary in terms of their quality and other characteristics Some of these entrants received waivers of the enlistment standards (e.g., the service may permit the enlistment of individuals who have disqualifying characteristics) Performance is measured in terms of the retention... Potential Hispanic Recruits Analysis of the NLSY data reveals that a relatively small percentage of youth, regardless of race or ethnicity, would qualify for military enlistment Figures S.1 and S.2 show the cumulative effect of key enlistment standards in the areas of education (high school diploma or General Education Degree), aptitude (Armed Forces Qualification Test score, [AFQT]), weight, number of dependents,... allowable weight MEPS Military Entrance Processing Station MK Mathematics Knowledge MOS Military Operational Specialty NELS National Educational Longitudinal Study NHIS National Health Interview Survey xxvii xxviii Military Enlistment of Hispanic Youth: Obstacles and Opportunities NLSY National Longitudinal Survey of Youth PC paragraph comprehension RMC regular military compensation TABE Test of Adult Basic... of key demographic groups, including Hispanics The underrepresentation of Hispanics is puzzling, considering that survey data on young people’s attitudes toward the military consistently indicate that Hispanic youth are more likely than other groups to express a positive attitude toward the military For example, in the December 2007 poll of American youth ages 18 to 24 conducted by the Department of. .. difference in the probability of combat assignment for blacks versus whites 3 An excellent discussion of the history of blacks in the military as the U.S switched from conscription to the AVF is given in Binkin and Eitelberg (1982) 1 2 Military Enlistment of Hispanic Youth: Obstacles and Opportunities percent of the 18- to 24-year-old civilian population for blacks and Hispanics, respectively Thus, . underrepresentation of Hispanic youth among military enlistments. To help policymakers evaluate the feasibility of improving Hispanic enlistments by recruiting. THREE Enlistment Qualifications 21 Data 21 Caveats 22 Organization 23 Hispanics in the Census and NLSY97 23 vi Military Enlistment of Hispanic Youth: