CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS: CAN ASIA CHANGE THE GAME? CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS: CAN ASIA CHANGE THE GAME? Edited by Christine Loh, Andrew Stevenson and Simon Tay Climate Change Negotiations: Can Asia Change the Game? © Civic Exchange 2008 ISBN-988-98192-3-6 Typeset in Lido by Thanh Nguyen Cover design by Mirror Productions Published by Civic Exchange Room 701, Hoseinee House 69 Wyndham Street, Central, Hong Kong www.civic-exchange.org Printed and bound in Hong Kong by Regal Printing First printing 2008 All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher PREFACE This book is the product of a year-long collaboration between Civic Exchange and the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), which began with a background paper on Asian climate change policy (‘Climate Change Negotiations: An Asian Stir Fry of Options’) published in December 2007 There were three objectives: to develop an initial list of key Asian concerns and responsibilities for the future international climate change agreement; to encourage stakeholders in the region to consider the challenges involved; and to promote constructive dialogue within and outside the region The release of that report coincided with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) conference in Bali, Indonesia, which launched a two-year negotiation process on the ‘post2012’ regime, set to conclude in Copenhagen in late 2009 Building on that first publication, in May 2008 Civic Exchange and SIIA invited experts from within Asia and around the world to a policy workshop in Singapore to deliberate and present their perspectives on Asia’s key issues in the post-Kyoto agreement, culminating in this new publication Each chapter provides an analysis of key issues, with targeted recommendations for governments and climate negotiators We hope this publication provides a concise but comprehensive overview of the current Asian position on climate change negotiations It spans the full scope of the climate change discussion, from key negotiating principles to serious impacts to the most promising mitigation and adaptation strategies We believe that Asia can be a ‘change agent’, but Asian countries need to be more proactive They should develop their own emissions reduction plans, policies, and targets and use them as the basis of climate negotiations This way, Asia can change the game, and get beyond the ‘finger pointing’ with the West that has characterized much of the negotiations so far Both sides will need to understand each other’s key objectives, concerns, aspirations, and responsibilities better Ideally, this mutual un- derstanding will allow both sides to reach an agreement that is both equitable and equal to the magnitude of the global challenges of climate change Serious ecological impacts are already ‘in the pipeline’ and cannot be avoided Asia should begin taking the initiative rather than taking a wait-and-see attitude on what developed countries will There is much more work to be done, and we hope this book will help to push the debate in a small way Civic Exchange and SIIA would first like to thank the authors for their outstanding contributions and patience throughout the writing and editing process We would also like to thank all of the reviewers for their valuable feedback Most importantly, we need to acknowledge the enormous contribution of Andrew Stevenson, Civic Exchange’s resident Fulbright Scholar, who dedicated his time to shepherding the whole messy process from start to finish, including contributing research and writing He was ably assisted by Civic Exchange’s tireless colleagues, Andrew Lawson and Mike Kilburn, who spent many hours reading chapters in the editing process We also wish to thank Michele Weldon for her tireless efforts managing and providing feedback in the early stages of the book process, and Thanh Nguyen for his work on layout and design Finally, this project would not have been possible without CLP Power providing the essential funding and also Gail Kendall’s encouragement and intellectual involvement Christine Loh Chief Executive Officer Civic Exchange November 2008 Simon Tay Chairman Singapore Institute of International Affairs ABOUT THE ORGANIZATIONS Civic Exchange Room 701, Hoseinee House 69 Wyndham Street, Central, Hong Kong www.civic-exchange.org Civic Exchange is a Hong Kong-based non-profit public policy think tank that was established in October 2000 It is an independent organization that has access to policy-makers, officials, businesses, media, and NGOs—reaching across sectors and borders Civic Exchange has solid experience in many areas, including air quality, energy, environment, urban planning, and climate change research, as well as economics and governance issues Recent work in these areas includes studying Asian climate change negotiations, green buildings, shipping-related air pollution, and the health impacts of air pollution in southern China, and books analysing the changes in Hong Kong’s environmental and air quality policy since 1997 It has also hosted a series of forums on the relationship between energy policy, air quality, buildings, and climate change The Singapore Institute for International Affairs Nassim Road, Singapore, 258370 www.siiaonline.org The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) is a non-profit, non-government organization dedicated to the research, analysis and discussion of regional and international issues Its work focuses on environmental policy as well as governance and political security issues The wide range of research and events—funded by foundations, membership subscriptions, and corporate sponsorship—reaches out to policymakers, business leaders, professionals, and youth One of the SIIA’s major projects has been analysing the causes of the haze since the 1997–98 episodes The SIIA is also a key member of the ASEAN Institutes of Strategic and International Studies (ASEAN-ISIS), a regional grouping of think tanks that has one member from ASEAN member states (excluding Burma/Myanmar) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Civic Exchange and SIIA would also like to thank the following, who helpfully provided information or review for the book The contents of the book not reflect the views of the individuals or organizations listed Agarwal, Subhash Barron, Bill Chung, Rae-Kwon Cruz, Rex Goldmark, Peter Kendall, Gail Kilburn, Mike Lasco, Rodel Lawson, Andrew Lebel, Louis Mallet, Victor Obidfzinski, Krystof Salter, Liam Shannon, Ciara Weldon, Michele Zhang, Shiqiu Zhu, Tong TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface About the Organizations Acknowledgements Executive Summary 11 Introduction 23 Chapter The Road to Poznan and Copenhagen Christine Loh 28 Chapter Politics, Positions and Policy-Making on Climate Change in Asia Simon Tay and Phir Paungmalit 45 Chapter The Co-Benefits Approach: An Integrated Policy Response to Climate Change and Development in Asia Cornie Huizenga, Charlotte Kendra Castillo, May Ajero, and Deejay Cromwell Sanqui 59 Chapter An Outlook for Asian Forests in the New Climate Regime Daniel Murdiyarso and Marku Kanninen 74 Chapter Climate Change, Water Insecurities and Food Systems in Monsoon Asia Louis Lebel 88 Chapter A ‘Development Round of Climate Negotiations’ Tariq Banuri 100 Chapter Tackling Climate Change in the Post-2012 Regime: The Role of Cities and Urban Regions in Asia Christine Loh and Andrew Stevenson 116 Chapter Energy Efficiency, Technology and Climate Change: The Japanese Experience Shigeru Sudo 133 Chapter Trade, Climate Change and Asia Simon Tay and Phir Paungmalit 145 Chapter 10 Carbon Markets and Emissions Trading in Asia Roger Raufer 157 Chapter 11 The Global Deal: Deadlock or Default? Tom Heller 172 Glossary of Abbreviations 187 Notes 188 About the Authors 221 Notes 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 211 UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) (2008) ‘Enforcement Regulations for the Law Concerning the Rational Use of Energy’, in Compendium on Energy Conservation Legislation in Countries of the Asia and Pacific Region Nippon Keidanren, 2006 (above) and adapted from Loh, C et al (2007) ‘Climate Change Negotiations: An Asian Stir Fry of Options’, Hong Kong: Civic Exchange For a case study of the application of heat pump technology, see World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) (2008) ‘Case Study, TEPCO: High Efficiency Heat Pumps’