... the forecast error (actual - forecast) for period t In other words, the new forecast is the old one plus an adjustment for the error that occurred in the last forecast Bootstrapping of Forecasts ... Summation formula for basic equation By substituting for St-2, then for St-3, and so forth, until we reach S2 (which is just y1), it can be shown that the expanding equation can be written as: Expanded ... 6.4.3.2 Forecasting with Single Exponential Smoothing Process or Product Monitoring and Control 6.4 Introduction to Time Series Analysis 6.4.3 What is Exponential Smoothing? 6.4.3.2 Forecasting...