Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 3 potx
Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 3 potx
... to offer for sale in its retail stores and affiliated pro shops. It plans to28 32 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 3. 4 Defining the demand assumption for the Alaskan Golf purchase ... create a stochastic model. 30 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL TABLE 3. 1 Stochastic assumptions to be added to AKGolf.xls.Assumption Cell DistributionDemand during Golf Season C6 ... The next chapter takes a morein-depth view of selecting and specifying Crystal Ball assumptions.Building a Crystal Ball Model 31 FIGURE 3. 2 Distribution gallery showing the triangular and normal...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 10 potx
... forecast window for Portfolio Loss inFigure 10.1.144 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 10.4 Crystal Ball model to find VaR and CVaR.normally distributed, but truncated at −100 ... horizon, then on average the trading operation should lose140146 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL TABLE 10.2 VaR and CVaR forindependent investments modeled inCVaRSubadditivity.xls.1% ... lower than the sumof the component risks, and so it is a satisfactory measure of risk from this point ofview.142 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL SHORTCOMINGS OF VARVaR provides...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 11 potx
... FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 11.8 Crystal Ball model on the ‘‘VectorRandom Walk’’ worksheet ofRandomWalkWithDrift.xls for forecasting a vector timeseries with a random ... ADRA, and ADRU. The Crystal Ball assumptions in cells J9:L 13 have means and standard deviations shown in cells I15:L17, and crosscorrelations shown in cells I19:L22. Cells M 13: O 13 are Crystal Ball ... estimate µ and σ , first findRi= Si/Si−1 and ri= ln(Ri)fori = 1,2, , n.150 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 11 .3 Forecast chart for the observation at time t = 30 forthe...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 1 pptx
... Results 27 CHAPTER 3 Building a Crystal Ball Model 28Simulation Modeling Process 28Defining Crystal Ball Assumptions 29Running Crystal Ball 32 Sources of Error 33 Controlling Model Error 35 CHAPTER ... Crystal Ball Assumptions 36 Crystal Ball s Basic Distributions 36 Using Historical Data to Choose Distributions 54Specifying Correlations 63 vii10 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL ■ Crystal ... approximation to reality.4 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL In short, probability and statistics help you weigh the potential rewards and punishments associated with the decisions you...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 2 ppsx
... window for Year 30 Wealth in Figure 2.2, thepossible values range from $0 to $15 million, and are broken up into 15 equal14 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 2 .3 Cumulative ... a 30 percent chance that you will actually accumulate the mean wealth or more.26 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 2.15 Overlay chart comparing accumulated value after 30 ... tool.18 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 2.5 Frequency distributions depicting negative (Skewness =−2), positive (+2), and near-zero(0.02) skewness at top left, top right, and...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 4 pot
... distribution.66 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL cells B2:B78 and C2:C78, respectively, in the spreadsheet PearsonSpearman.xls.Cell H2 is lognormal(1.18,0 .36 ), and cell I2 is lognormal(1. 13, 0.22).The ... fact that it represents arandom variable whose natural logarithm follows the normal distribution. Like the68 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 4 .33 Calculate Correlation Coefficient ... 60 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL This section gives a brief description of the procedures used by Crystal Ball forfitting distributions. Suppose a random sample of...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 5 pot
... quarter of year, and abandon theproject if three consecutive quarters of cash flow below −$6 occur; and (2) expand if88 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 5.21 Step 3 in using the ... lower and upper bounds. Using adiscrete variable type limits the number of values that Crystal Ball checks and thusspeeds up the analysis.86 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL To ... through K are hidden.94 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL different values for Abandon Point and seven different values for Expansion Point.If we used more values with Decision Table,...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 6 docx
... FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL and wish to do things Excel doesn’t already do, or you wish to do extra processingduring each trial of the simulation, see the Crystal Ball User Manual ... here.FIGURE 6.8 Run Preferences Statistics tab.96 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 6.1 Run Preferences Trials tab. Crystal Ball executes the simulation cycle automatically, ... increase the precision of theestimate of the mean.100 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 6.5 Run Preferences Sampling tab.these random numbers has the capability to produce over...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 7 pptx
... standard deviation of 3. In Model 2, the cash flow forYear 5 is linked to all previous years’ cash flows:C5= C4+3Z5= C 3 +3Z4+3Z5= C2+3Z 3 +3Z4+3Z5= C1+3Z2+3Z 3 +3Z4+3Z5= ... Ct= 30 +3Ztfor t = 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, where each Ztis drawn from a116 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 7.11 Spider chart.analysis of the relationships between the randomly ... C 3 +3Z4+3Z5= C2+3Z 3 +3Z4+3Z5= C1+3Z2+3Z 3 +3Z4+3Z5= 30 +3Z1+3Z2+3Z 3 +3Z4+3Z5,so has a true variance of 5 (3 2) = 45 and standard deviation 6.708. The increasingdispersion of cash...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 8 pptx
... up with a goodmodel for defining sales assumptions.128 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 8.4 Crystal Ball model for income statement in Sengupta2.xls. Cells J6,J7, J10,andJ12 ... Cells J6,J7, J10,andJ12 are Crystal Ball assumptions, and I3 is a forecast.FIGURE 8.5 Tornado chart for Crystal Ball model in Sengupta2.xls.The values of the Crystal Ball assumptions were varied ... the 1stpercentile to the 99th percentile in five equally spaced steps.126 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 8.1 Historical income statement in Sengupta.xls.income statement...
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