... +3Z
t
for t = 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, where each Z
t
is drawn from a
11 6 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 7 .11 Spider chart.
analysis of the relationships between the randomly generated ... error from the means of
$6.02 and 20% shown in Figures 7 .15 and 7 .16 . This is a manifestation of Jensen’s
10 8 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AN...
... up with a good
model for defining sales assumptions.
12 8 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 8.4 Crystal Ball model for income statement in Sengupta2.xls. Cells J6,
J7, J10,andJ12 ... J10,andJ12 are Crystal Ball assumptions, and I3 is a forecast.
FIGURE 8.5 Tornado chart for Crystal Ball model in Sengupta2.xls.
The values of the Crystal Ball...
... lognormal
with mean 1. 1 517 and standard deviation 0.2746. Cells C12:C 41 represent
the total annual return on bonds for years 1 through 30. Each year’s return
on bonds is lognormal with mean 1. 0585 and ... to stocks varies from 10
percent to 90 percent in steps of 10 percent.
FIGURE 2 .10 Step 1 in using the Decision Table tool.
18 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL...
... we will add assumptions and a forecast to the
deterministic model in AKGolf.xls to create a stochastic model.
30 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
TABLE 3 .1 Stochastic assumptions ... isuniform with a minimum of $355, and a maximum
of $395. The average end-of-season sales price is uniform with a minimum of $17 5,
and a maximum of $19 5. Table 3 .1 summa...
... is
lognormally distributed.
46 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 4 .11 Triangular(90 ,10 0 ,11 0) assumption used for modeling revenue in
Figure 4 .12 .
FIGURE 4 .12 Spreadsheet model for ... variables in the
cells directly above them, C5:C10, F5:F16,andI5:I22, respectively. The cells
50 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 4...
... 40 percent.
FIGURE 5 .13 Crystal Ball forecast for NPV1 for the case of no flexibility
in the Project.xls model.
82 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 5 .14 Spreadsheet segment ... (1) Begin checking in the second quarter of year, and abandon the
project if three consecutive quarters of cash flow below −$6 occur; and (2) expand if
88 FINANCIAL MODELIN...
... FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
and wish to do things Excel doesn’t already do, or you wish to do extra processing
during each trial of the simulation, see the Crystal Ball User ... here.
FIGURE 6.8 Run Preferences Statistics tab.
96 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 6 .1 Run Preferences Trials tab.
Crystal Ball execu...
... problem:
13 8 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
TABLE 9.4 Optimal asset allocations and sustainable
withdrawal rates for two planning horizons.
Horizon LCS SCS CB USGB Spend
30-year .25 .12 ... her
13 4 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
TABLE 9.3 Spearman correlation matrix for annual total
returns during the period 19 26–2002 for fou...
... Portfolio Loss in
Figure 10 .1.
14 4 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL
FIGURE 10 .4 Crystal Ball model to find VaR and CVaR.
normally distributed, but truncated at 10 0 percent. The model ... operations will lose
$1 million over a 1- day horizon, then on average the trading operation should lose
14 0
14 6 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL...