... (cloth)
1. Investment analysis. 2. Portfolio management. I. Title.
II. Series.
HG4529.M86 19 91
332.6-dc20 90-48567
Printed in the United States of America
20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13
Contents
Preface v
1 ... Markets 12 2
9 Stock Market Groups 14 9
10 The Dow Utilities as a Leading Indicator of Stocks 17 3
11 Relative-Strength Analysis of Commodities 18 6
12 Commodities...
... by the trend of the U.S. dollar. Therefore,
we begin our intermarket analysis with the dollar. The path to take is from the dollar
to the commodity markets, then from the commodity markets to the ... turns in the CRB Index at the 19 85 bottom
and the 19 87 top. (Gold also led the downturn in the CRB Index in 19 80.) The 19 85
bottom in gold was more than a...
... led at the 19 86 bottom, while the Foodstuffs led at
the 19 88 peak.
THE JOC INDEX AND RAW INDUSTRIALS 10 1
FIGURE 7 .1
A COMPARISON OF THE CRB FUTURES INDEX AND THE CRB SPOT INDEX FROM 19 87 TO
19 89. ... stocks outperform gold by a wide margin (19 80 to 19 85 and 19 88 through
the first half of 19 89). During periods of rising inflation (the 19 70s and the period...
... pushed the U.S. wholesale inflation rate for 19 89 up to 4.8 percent,
the highest inflation number since 19 81. The major culprit behind the surge in the
GLOBAL INTEREST RATES 13 9
FIGURE 8 .17
THE ... out of the six with an average lead time of eight
months. The two times when the CRB Index lagged turns in the CPI Index (19 77 and
THE CRB INDEX VERSUS THE PPI A...
... IN THE CRB
INDEX.
THE
MID -19 88
PEAK
IN THE CRB
HELPED
LAUNCH
THE S&L
RALLY.
THE
PEAK
IN THE
S&Ls
IN
THE AUTUMN OF 19 89 COINCIDED WITH THE BREAKING OF A DOWN TRENIHINE BY THE
CRB ... shoulder") in the CRB Index in the spring of 19 87 coincides
with the middle peak (the head) in the S&Ls. The "right shoulder" in the S&...
... understood and the least appreciated of the four
244 THE MYTH OF PROGRAM TRADING
-11 :07
A.M
CBT Jun
T-bonds break
to 92
18 /32
11 :07 A.M— US stock index futures slide as T-bonds drop
— 11 :10 A.M— ... weaken around 10 :15 . Both markets also bottomed together just after 11 :00 (along
with the dollar). The plunge in the bond market around 11 :00 was partially caus...
... by the trend of the U.S. dollar. Therefore,
we begin our intermarket analysis with the dollar. The path to take is from the dollar
to the commodity markets, then from the commodity markets to the ... turns in the CRB Index at the 19 85 bottom
and the 19 87 top. (Gold also led the downturn in the CRB Index in 19 80.) The 19 85
bottom in gold was more than a...
... led at the 19 86 bottom, while the Foodstuffs led at
the 19 88 peak.
THE JOC INDEX AND RAW INDUSTRIALS 10 1
FIGURE 7 .1
A COMPARISON OF THE CRB FUTURES INDEX AND THE CRB SPOT INDEX FROM 19 87 TO
19 89. ... back to the
beginning of the decade, the dollar bottomed in 19 80, two years before the 19 82
bottom in stocks. In 19 88 and 19 89 the dollar and stocks rose...